Monday was a very big night for the New York City Lottery Police Department.
The Mavericks lost their fifth straight game to drop to 8-13 and the Knicks dropped their fifth of six outings to drop to 9-13. The Knicks are now one of the worst four games of the season under .500.
If the season ended today, the Knicks would hold the sixth and ninth seeds in the 2021 NBA Draft Lottery.
From the Kristaps Porzingis trade two years ago, this year’s Knicks own the Mavericks’ unprotected first round (the Dallas 2023 first-rounder has top-10 protection).
So while the Knicks fans may be cheering on another tank soon, they should know full well that top nine lottery picks are as likely to fail as they are to succeed.
Just look at the Knicks roster and the adventures of four of their top nine lotteries – Kevin Knox (2018), Obi Toppin (2020), Frank Ntilikina (2017) and Dennis Smith Jr. (2017, acquired in Porzingis).
Ironically, one of their best young players, rookie point guard Immanuel Quickley, was busted 25th after being projected as a second-round pick.
As it stands, Knox is no longer part of Tom Thibodeau’s 10-man rotation, with the club now being healthier than it has been all season.
Ntilikina has also been out of rotation since returning from a knee sprain last week. Smith Jr. is on his way to Orlando to play for the Westchester Knicks in the G League bubble, having been buried since the beginning.
And then there’s the curious case of Toppin, the No. 8 pick in November that came in with a star-studded Dayton resume. The college player of the year missed three weeks with a calf load, but returned to rotation on Jan. 13 as a lightly used backup.
The 22-year-old power forward made little impact with Julius Randle taking up the most minutes. Toppin looks a bit lost running around, setting screens, opening up and not getting the ball.
Toppin has not shown enough strength to make his own shot. He also shoots only 26 percent of the 3-point range – meaning his future as a stretch 4 is questionable.
“He’s someone you just don’t know yet,” said an NBA coach.
In Chicago, Toppin came in for Randle on Monday to begin the fourth quarter. But less than two minutes later, Thibodeau pulled him out for Randle. In his 1:57 stint, Toppin committed two errors and didn’t take a shot.
Thibodeau said the Bulls owned the boards and he wanted Randle back in the game. Toppin played 8:46 in defeat, scoring four runs and making his only attempt to shoot – an alley-oop dunk.
Thibodeau indicated that Toppin’s team defense is still a problem. Obviously, Toppin missed the summer league more than most of the rookies hailing from a mid-major in Dayton, who never got a chance to show their stuff in the NCAA tournament that was canceled due to the pandemic.
Maybe Toppin’s design stock wouldn’t have been this high if he didn’t dominate the Big Dance, but we’ll never know. He scores an average of 4.6 points in 12 games.
“He plays quite well,” said Thibodeau after the game. “(Monday) we started on the fourth and the recovery was a problem. And so just play all-round. But I like the things he does, he plays with good energy. I would say the most important thing is for him to learn the NBA. “
Toppin’s defense was his problem coming from Dayton. That’s why Cleveland went with Isaac Okoro at number 5 when the mock drafts pegged Toppin, the 22-year-old late bloomer, to stay in Ohio.
“The defense and being a man with multiple efforts, you have to do more than one thing,” Thibodeau said of Toppin. “He might get the first part, but there’s also a second, third, and fourth part that needs to be done. So we ask him to do a lot. He picks it up. He’s getting better. I like his approach. I just have to keep working. “
As advertised, Thibodeau plays against the guys he thinks will help him win – regardless of the lottery resumption or youth or potential.
So Knox is out. He has picked up two consecutive DNPs and Thibodeau confirmed that he is not in the 10 man rotation. However, Thibodeau will not send him to the G League as he is still knocking on the door.
“In Kevin’s situation, he’s still very situational and things can change quickly based on matchups, mistakes, injuries, illness,” said Thibodeau. “He could be next. Some of it could also be matchups.”
The Knicks have lost two straights since Knox was snatched, giving up 129 points and 115 points respectively. Defense is Knox’s weak spot. On Monday, the Knicks also shot only 6 of 29 from 3-point range. Knox’s specialty is the 3-ball.
Ntilikina, meanwhile, has suffered four consecutive DNPs since returning. He is a defensive specialist and Thibodeau is a defensive coach.
As the Knicks nestle in Chicago, waiting for Wednesday’s rematch at United Center, Thibodeau has a lot to think about.
But so are Knicks fans who think the lottery is always the road to nirvana.