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Vaccines appear to be less effective against a new strain of Covid-19 first discovered in South Africa. Upstairs, health workers in Soweto.
Michele Spatari / AFP via Getty Images
Investors project new winners in the Covid-19 vaccine race in the immediate aftermath of the latest test results revelations.
Long-awaited data on Johnson & Johnson’s single-use vaccine candidate fell short of expectations Friday morning, while a biotech upstart appeared to outperform the major drug company.
Stock at Johnson & Johnson declined, while the shares of other companies producing or developing vaccines rose. The biggest asset was the biotech Novavax, which released data Thursday night on its own Covid-19 vaccine study that was stronger than Johnson & Johnson data Friday morning.
Shares of Novavax were up 72.5% on Friday to $ 231.35. A year ago, on January 29, 2020, the stock closed at $ 6.84.
There were also shares of climbing
Modern
(MRNA), up 7.2%;
Pfizer
(PFE), 1.3% higher; and
BioNTech
(BNTX), an increase of 4.7%. All three currently sell approved Covid-19 vaccines.
The shares of Johnson & Johnson, meanwhile, fell 3.3%. The
S&P 500
was also down, down 0.9%.
Johnson & Johnson reported early Friday that its Covid-19 vaccine was 66% effective in preventing moderate to severe Covid-19, in contrast to the widely quoted expectations that the vaccine would be at least 80% effective.
Still, the company also said the vaccine was 85% effective at preventing serious illness, and completely effective at preventing hospitalization and death from Covid-19.
While protection against moderate to severe disease was markedly lower in South Africa, where nearly all cases were caused by a troubling new strain of the virus, protection against serious disease was just as strong there as elsewhere. That’s a positive sign, given new reports that the South African species is now spreading around the world.
During a conversation with investors on Friday, a Johnson & Johnson executive argued that the spread of variants of the Covid-19 virus meant that it was impossible to compare the results of the Johnson & Johnson study with large studies previously reported. the year before those mutations were widespread.
“Our data is not comparable, apples to apples, versus previously generated data,” says Dr. Mathai Mammen, Global Head of Research and Development at Janssen Pharmaceutical Companies, subsidiary of Johnson & Johnson.
Novavax is conducting an additional Phase 3 trial of its vaccine in the U.S. The company’s CEO, Stan Erck, told Bloomberg that they were in talks with the FDA about whether they could now submit the drug for emergency would need to wait for the completion of the American process. Johnson & Johnson said it planned to apply for an emergency permit in early February.
The Johnson & Johnson vaccine’s ability to prevent serious illness suggests it will likely play an important role in managing the pandemic. An important element is the price. Johnson & Johnson plans to distribute its vaccine on a nonprofit basis during the pandemic. Novavax has made no such commitment, nor Moderna or Pfizer.
The vaccine was also tested as a single dose, a significant advantage over the Moderna, Pfizer and Novavax offerings that require two doses.
Still, the figures Johnson & Johnson presented Friday suggest their vaccine doesn’t offer as much protection against Covid-19 as relative newcomer Novavax’s vaccine, who said Thursday that the vaccine was 89.3% effective in a phase 3 trial in the VK, and 95.6% effective against the original Covid-19 strain.
Those results appear to place Novavax in the same class as the Moderna and Pfizer vaccines in terms of effectiveness. In trials conducted earlier this year, those vaccines showed 95% protection against symptomatic diseases.
“We believe these results clearly demonstrate a distinctive and more than viable efficacy and safety profile (in addition to improved distribution logistics) compared to current vaccines with EUA,” Cantor Fitzgerald analyst Charles Duncan wrote in a note Friday on Novavax.
Novavax is already developing a vaccine or booster to combat the South African variant of the Covid-19 virus. The company said its vaccine showed only 60% efficacy in a phase 2b study in South Africa, where nearly all infections appear to be from the South African strain.
Novavax has no products on the market. It is also developing vaccines to prevent seasonal flu, respiratory syncytial virus and other illnesses.
Write to Josh Nathan-Kazis at [email protected]