Oddsmakers had spent days pondering what the line would be on an AFC Championship Game between the Buffalo Bills and Kansas City Chiefs. But on Sunday afternoon, after the match-up was set, the opening line varied wildly, from Chiefs -4 to Bills -2.5, at sportsbooks around the world.
That’s what injured Patrick Mahomes in the betting market, and it’s just the beginning.
Late Sunday evening, the Chiefs row was settled as 2.5-point favorites, with some books at -3. It is unlikely to stay there.
Mahomes left the Chiefs’ 22-17 playoff win over the Cleveland Browns in the second half with a concussion. His status for the AFC Championship Game was on the way to Monday. If he plays, the line will almost certainly grow. When he’s gone, Buffalo can be preferred and the Green Bay Packers can become Super Bowl favorites.
“If Mahomes were ruled out, the bills would be quite a favorite,” said John Murray, executive director of the SuperBook at Westgate Las Vegas, Sunday night, noting that some of his oddsmakers were projecting a boundary as high as Buffalo -7 as a backup. up Chad Henne starts for the Chiefs instead of Mahomes. “That sounds a bit extreme to me, but it gives you an idea how much drop-off it is from Mahomes to Henne, in terms of the point spread.”
Johnny Avello, DraftKings sportsbook director, expected the Chiefs to remain the favorites to win the Super Bowl, but he knows the gap has narrowed significantly with Mahomes’ injury.
“They will still be the favorites, but it will be tightened up a bit,” said Avello.
On Sunday night, William Hill US sportsbooks had the Chiefs at +200 to win the Super Bowl, followed by the Packers at +225, Bills +300 and Buccaneers +400. But a lot can change this week.
In the meantime, here are the notable bets.
NFL
• On Sunday night, the Packers were consensus 4-point favorites over the Buccaneers in the NFC Championship Game. The SuperBook opened Green Bay at -4.5 and quickly took money on the underdog Buccaneers, driving the number to -4.
• In the AFC Championship Game, most early bets were on the SuperBook’s Bills. “Although the biggest bet to date was one of $ 20,000 on Chiefs -3 (even),” said Murray. “The crowd loves both teams, even though the Chiefs continue to disappoint the gamblers. They failed to take cover again today.”
• The Chiefs have failed to cover the spread in eight of their past nine games.
• Late money appeared on the Browns leading up to Sunday’s kickoff. The line, which had fluttered between Kansas City -10 and -9.5 all week, plummeted to -7.5 before kick-off. The SuperBook reported that he had taken sharp money on Cleveland late, while the entire market went to the underdog Browns.
“The difference between 7.5 and 9.5 is not that big,” said Avello of DrafKings. ‘I don’t know why that thing fell. I can’t explain why they took nine, eight and a half and eight. ‘
At Circa Sports, a Las Vegas sportsbook known to target professional bettors, there were more bets on Kansas City, but more money was bet on Cleveland.
“All the big bets we keep making are on the Browns,” Matt Metcalf, Sports Director of Circa Sports in Las Vegas, told ESPN in a text message before Sunday’s game began. ‘Someone just took it [Cleveland plus] 8 for a whole minute ago. “
• The Chiefs led 22-10 with just over 11 minutes to go when Mahomes was officially ruled out for the remainder of the game. Kansas City was a huge favorite at the time, -900 to win the game outright. After Browns’ touchdown narrowed the lead to 22-17 and ruled out Mahomes, the live odds shifted to Chiefs -500.
• The most popular bet for a player on the Browns Chiefs game at Sportsbook Tipico in New Jersey was the under 260.5 yards passing at Baker Mayfield, which accounted for 50% of the book’s action on players’ props.
• The Buccaneers-Saints race on Sunday was the toughest race of the weekend for several sportsbooks.
• A sportsbook PointsBet bettor placed a bet of $ 5,400 per point on the Bills -3.5 against the Ravens. In this example, the bet per point, commonly known as points bet, was based on the number of points the accounts used to cover the spread. They covered the spread by 11.5 points and the bettor took home $ 56,700 net.
• The Rams-Packers game on Saturday was billed by some as a “Pros vs. Joes” game. The underdog Rams drew early betting interest from professional bettors with +7. The line dropped to Green Bay -6.5 and stayed there for most of the week, despite skewed bets on the favored Packers. At PointsBet kick-off, 82% of the bets and 89% of the money wagered were on Green Bay. The Packers won and covered the 32-18 spread.
NBA
Nets favorites in Eastern Conference after trade in Harden
After taking over from James Harden, the Brooklyn Nets moved up to the Milwaukee Bucks and are now the favorites in the Eastern Conference. But some oddsmakers still aren’t sold on the NBA’s newest super team.
The Nets’ title odds improved from 12-1 to 7-2 during the SuperBook last week. Jeff Sherman, who oversees the SuperBook’s NBA odds, began narrowing Brooklyn’s title odds last Tuesday after Harden told reporters he didn’t think the Houston situation was fixable. Sherman first narrowed the Nets’ odds to 8-1, then to 6-1 before moving to 7-2 after the trade.
Only the Los Angeles Lakers have better title odds than the Nets, who managed to win big stakes on the SuperBook in the preseason and more recently, including a $ 10,000 bet in December. The Bucks have the second-best chances in the Eastern Conference 8-1, followed by the Boston Celtics, Miami Heat and Philadelphia 76ers 20-1.
“I don’t have that much distance between them and some of the other teams in the East, as the title odds indicate,” said Sherman. “When you see 7-2 on the Nets and 8-1 on the Bucks, and the Heat, Celtics and Sixers at 20-1, I don’t think it makes that much difference per game. Seems to be based on the title odds. “
Sherman said his net worth on the Nets is troubled for now, as he waits to see Kyrie Irving, Kevin Durant and Harden develop chemistry.
“They can talk about a good game as best they want, but we don’t know how the chemistry will come out of this,” said Sherman. It’s been rumored that Irving isn’t happy with the Nets behind the scenes. Will this make him even more unhappy? ‘
Three questions
… with Scott Butera, co-CEO of sportsbook platform Vigtory, which last week announced its intentions to be acquired by live TV streaming platform fuboTV. The acquisition agreement is in its final stages and when finalized, fuboTV expects to launch a sportsbook before the end of the year.
Q: What is your take on the product that will come out of the fuboTV-Vigtory deal?
A: I think it is very powerful to watch sports live and make transactions and bet on sports. I also think it gives us a huge reach in terms of customer reach, customer acquisition. We will announce the product at the right time, but the whole idea is that you will have some kind of simultaneous experience between consuming sports, watching sports and being able to bet on sports and make transactions on sports. It could be gambling, it could be merchandise, buying tickets. I think the whole idea is to create these global entertainment experiences that are multifaceted. We notice that there is a lot of synergy between the two.
Q: What obstacles are there to launching such a service?
A: In terms of hurdles, we clearly, like any other operator, have a plan for the implementation of the state. We are knee deep in that. Ensuring that appropriate legislation is passed in jurisdictions that have not yet passed it. I think those things will evolve over time. I think this combination [with fuboTV] helps us get a lot to get over that, and I think there are many different ways we can enter markets beyond just the traditional ways a sportsbook would, either through streaming services or other products that we can do not necessarily have the same regulatory challenges as sports betting today. It actually helps us get rid of a lot of it.
Q: Vigtory’s announced approach to sports betting was to offer an option for low money sports betting. Is that still the plan?
A: Our plan has always been to have a really great product and great value. We want great technology, great experiences, and we want good prices. And value is not necessarily determined by price; it is determined by what you get what you paid for, and that has always been our goal.