SALT LAKE CITY – Public health experts say they remain cautiously optimistic about the COVID-19 pandemic outlook as the number of new cases declines and the number of Utahns vaccinated rises sharply.
Friday was the first time there were fewer than 15,000 active COVID-19 cases in Utah since September 24, 2020, according to data from the Utah Department of Health. It’s a figure that reached more than 63,000 at one point in late November.
The state’s seven-day moving average person over person positivity rate fell below 10% for the first time since Sept. 7, 2020 on Feb. 26, 2020. Utah’s seven-day moving average was 543 new cases per day as of Friday, that’s it. lowest level since Sept. 14, 2020. All of this data shows that Utah is roughly where it was before the fall rise led to the highest COVID-19 rates the state has received to date.
Meanwhile, vaccinations are on the rise. The health department is now reporting that 529,871 Utahns have received at least one dose of the COVID-19 vaccine, which means that the number of Utahns vaccinated since December 15, 2020 is now nearly 1.5 times the number of people contracted COVID-19 since a year ago Saturday.
But while some states have used the vaccine, their own case is declining, or national refusals as a reason to ease restrictions on the back, a Utah health expert said it was too early on Friday to do so.
Dr. Brandon Webb, an infectious disease physician at Intermountain Healthcare, estimates that Utah has about 30% immunity when given vaccines or recent cases are taken into account. That’s a figure he said is “great,” he says, but the estimate is still less than the 70% or more that experts say must be achieved to achieve herd immunity.
“We’re not there yet,” Webb said Friday during a question-and-answer session with members of the media. “We are not yet ready to rely on that 30% herd immunity alone, so it is important that we continue to follow the social restrictions and precautions set by the Department of Health.”
That’s why Webb warned against relaxing or celebrating restrictions early on, especially as some states, such as Texas, announced those plans this week.
Gov. Spencer Cox said on Thursday that Utah would go ahead with its plan to reopen in several steps, even under pressure from politicians inside and outside Utah to reopen “100%” increases.
There is hope on the horizon – we can see the finish line, but right now the last thing we can afford is to fumble the ball before we cross the goal line.
–Dr. Brandon Webb, infectious disease physician at Intermountain Healthcare
For months, former governor Gary Herbert used a sports cliché at his press conferences about the corona virus. With every positive move Utah took last year, he would point out that leaders and health experts were not ready to “speed up the game.” Simply put, it was too early to celebrate as there was still work to be done to end the pandemic.
With the number of cases of COVID-19 down and vaccines available, Webb offered a similar sports analogy Friday.
“We have to see this to completion. There is hope on the horizon – we can see the finish, but right now the last thing we can afford is to fumble the ball before we pass the goal line,” he said. “If we see it in terms of strong finish and individuals making personal decisions based on their individual risk level, we will be able to make it to that finish line as our vaccine distribution continues to accelerate.”
Part of the reason experts remain cautiously optimistic is that reported declines in new cases are beginning to level off, indicating a potential plateau in new cases rather than disappearing altogether.
At the same time, Webb pointed out that vaccination efforts around the world are a “race” against the various coronavirus variants discovered that could thwart the entire vaccination process.
So, how should Utah go about reopening?
The ‘Wisest Course’
Utah leaders on Thursday moved Salt Lake and Davis counties to the “moderate” transmission speed level of the state’s transmission index. They joined Box Elder, Cache, Duchesne, Grand, Juab, Morgan, San Juan, Sanpete, Wasatch, Washington and Weber counties in that category.
Only five counties – Daggett, Millard, Piute, Rich and Wayne – have the “slow” transmission speed. The remaining 11 provinces remain in the “high” transmission category. Those are Beaver, Carbon, Emery, Garfield, Iron, Kane, Savier, Summit, Tooele, Uintah, and Utah counties.
Webb called the step-by-step approach to the COVID-19 reopening “the wisest course of action.”
“As fewer and fewer people in the community are susceptible, we can gradually ease the restrictions,” he said. “All of these step-by-step steps to ease disability need to be linked to the number of individuals in our community enjoying immunity.”
That is why he encourages people to wear masks, take social distance when necessary and avoid “poorly ventilated areas”. All of these factors can help reduce the spread of the virus.
While some communities have relaxed restrictions, Webb encouraged people to still exercise caution and follow guidelines to reduce the spread of the coronavirus, even when removed. He added that vaccines are extremely helpful, but advised that more people need them.
“Not everyone should see the vaccine as a ticket to complete freedom, while we still have a fairly high community transmission,” he said. “Not everyone has been vaccinated.”
Add a new vaccine to the mix
Utahns began getting the one-time Johnson & Johnson vaccine this week. Webb said he read the full 80-page report on the vaccine collected from clinical trials and believed the vaccine to be “very beneficial.”
“The safety data is excellent,” he added, noting that serious side effects from the vaccine were “very uncommon.”
The state epidemiologist Dr. Angela Dunn of the Utah Department of Health said on Thursday that one of the most frequently asked questions the health department has been getting is which of the three vaccine options they should be getting. She said getting one of the vaccines is the best approach to the process.
“The best vaccine for you is the one you can get first, regardless of manufacturer,” she said.
Intermountain officials pointed out that this is the case for everyone except 16 or 17 year olds, as the Pfizer vaccine is the only one approved so far for individuals so young.
Most of the vaccines given to date have been through Moderna or Pfizer-BioNTech, requiring two doses. While both are considered to be about 95% effective after the second dose, it is possible that someone could test positive for COVID-19 after receiving the primary dose of either vaccine.
In that case, Webb said the symptoms are typically milder. He added that it is now recommended that anyone contracting COVID-19 after receiving the first dose of either vaccine should still receive the second dose after their case has been resolved and they have waited after the 10-day isolation period.
“It’s safe and appropriate to go ahead and take that second dose,” he said.
Utah’s six-month outlook
It’s been nearly six months since the fall wave started in Utah. Now that Utah is near where it was at the end of last summer, what will the next six months be like?
Available vaccines are the biggest difference between September 2020 and March 2021. This is what Webb called the “most important tool at the moment.”
Current trends, he said, are also “favorable” that restrictions, such as mask mandates, could be lifted in the next six months. However, for that to happen, Utahns will still have to follow guidelines to slow the spread of the coronavirus.
“ We need to stay on track and get all the way to the finish line by continuing to follow the social constraints and the other layers of protection until our case counts and the number of individuals vaccinated is at a point where we can pass the baton safely. from those things we are all tired of to immunity, “he said.” We are currently on track with current vaccine distribution to gradually ease restrictions over the spring and summer. “