The 2021 NFL draft starts in nine days, and there are five exciting quarterback prospects who look like they will be leaving early in the first round. However, history tells us that only two of those five will make it in the NFL.
Yes that’s right. This is me that guy – the man who drops the turd of reality into the punch bowl of excitement before the pull. As round gets closer by 1 centimeter, expectations rise. Every fan of every team sees the concept as salvation – the annual event that will change their sad franchise, or deliver the final piece that you are sure will turn their good / great team into a champion.
While that’s all part of the fun, it’s not really what’s going to happen. Or at least it’s not what mostly happens. History tells us that it is statistically unlikely that a pick from the first round will win a second contract with your favorite team. And if your team takes a quarterback, history tells us he only has a 42.2% chance of making that second contract.
“Oh yeah?” you ask. “What history is that exactly?” – and I’ll tell you. Credit to Ace Researcher Paul Hembekides and the numbers crunching folks at ESPN Stats & Information, we have data on every first-rounder from 2000 to 2016 – all 540 – and whether or not they reached a second contract with the team that drafted them. In total, 232 of the 540 were re-signed by the team that drafted them at the end of their rookie contracts. That’s right – about 43%. These are first round choices, mind you, not the whole design. This is the most important round, the round that gets the credit. And even in this round, the data says teams have less than a 50% chance of hitting.
Pretty rough reality check, isn’t it?
“There are many things that you cannot control,” said an NFC front office manager who preferred not to be identified because no one wants to get caught talking about design this time of year. “You’re introducing twenties in money they’ve never seen before, and that will automatically introduce distractions from what got them to the point where they are. There is injury, of course. There are changes in the system. “Quarterbacks never have a fair chance. You change systems, change coaches, sometimes two or three times during that rookie contract, and you should see it more as an organizational failure than a failure of the prospect himself.”
Fair point, considering the case of the Jets. Three years ago they swapped from No. 6 to No. 3 in the draft to take Sam Darnold. They fired coach Todd Bowles and general manager Mike MacCagnan after Darnold’s freshman year and fired coach Adam Gase after his third. Taking second place in this year’s draft, they just traded Darnold to the Panthers because they decided to take on his replacement.
Darnold is not even in our ESPN Stats & Info study, because it was compiled in 2018. These numbers only run through 2016, as it is too early to know for sure if all the guys who were drafted in 2017 or later have the will take second place. contracts. This is the season in which their options for the fifth year will be decided. Fifteen of the 32 first rounders in the 2017 class are no longer on the teams they drafted, and Darnold is the second of five quarterbacks to enter the first round in 2018 who has already been traded in and replaced. Those concepts aren’t much more popular than the 17 we looked at for this article.
When studying those drawn up in the period 2000-16, we have found some differences per viewpoint. Offensive linemen seem to be the most likely first round choices to succeed. Of the 55 offensive tackles in the first round of 2000-16, 33 got a second contract with the teams they drafted. That is 60%. Twelve of the 26 first round guards (46.2%) and all nine first round centers (100%) made it. Linebacker is also a relatively safe choice as 54.8% (23 of 42) of those drafted have been re-signed to a second contract. But man, it’s ugly after that.
Did you have all broad receivers at your disposal in the first round of this year? Not so fast, my friend. Broad recipients were the lowest rated group in this study. Of the 70 receivers drafted between 2000 and 2016, only 19 won contracts with the team that drafted them. And that includes Odell Beckham Jr. and Tavon Austin, who didn’t exactly become legendary Giants or Rams. There is a Kevin White for every Calvin Johnson. For every Julio Jones, an AJ Jenkins. This doesn’t mean your team shouldn’t pick a wide receiver early – after all, superstar wideouts are extremely valuable – just that each individual choice is a relatively long road.
The second worst position group in this study is defensive tackle (35.3%) and then cornerback (35.5%). Some of this may be due to a poor schedule adjustment.
“If you ask players to do exactly the same thing they do in college, you’ll probably be fine,” said former Jets and Dolphins GM (and current ESPN NFL analyst) Mike Tannenbaum. “If you ask them to do something else, you bring in the strangers and the risk increases.”
Are there any teams more successful than others in keeping their first round choices? Yes, but keep in mind that this is only a 17-year sample and teams usually have one first round per year. With that being said, the Cowboys signed 73.3% (11 of 15) from 2000-16 first round picks to second contracts. They are closely followed by the Panthers and Texans with 68.8% (both 11 of 16), the Eagles with 60% (9 of 15) and the Steelers with 58.82% (10 of 17).
At the bottom of the list are the Broncos and Jaguars, who each made 17 first-round picks on that stretch and signed only four to second contracts (23.5%). Others at the bottom are the Browns and Lions at 25% (5 of 20 each) and the Cardinals and Bills at 27.8% (5 of 18 each).
So what about the quarterbacks? 45 were taken in the 17 designs from 2000-16, and 19 of them (42.2%) got a second contract from the teams that drafted them. That includes MVPs Aaron Rodgers, Matt Ryan and Cam Newton. It includes Super Bowl champions Eli Manning, Joe Flacco, and Ben Roethlisberger. But it also includes Jared Goff and Carson Wentz, the top two picks of 2016 checkers, who were traded off-season from the teams they drafted, before their second contract even got underway technically.
Does it matter how high they were picked? Kind of. Nine of the 12 quarterbacks who were taken with the # 1 overall pick from those concepts got a second contract with the teams they picked. (Those who didn’t were JaMarcus Russell, Sam Bradford, and Jameis Winston.) Only one of the three that was chosen # 2 got one (Wentz). Only one of the four who became No. 3 got one (Ryan). Philip Rivers, who was voted No. 4 in 2004, got one. That’s 12 of the 19 in total. Finding a Roethlisberger at No. 11 or a Rodgers at No. 24 is basically the same as finding a golden ticket at your Wonka Bar.
1:06
Mina Kimes explains why she thinks Trey Lance is the most exciting quarterback in the draft.
The problem is that so much goes into the question of whether a quarterback is successful in the NFL. It’s about more than the player’s ability and mental makeup. It often comes down to the situation. What kind of team has been built around him? How much time does he need before he is ready to play, and how much of that time does he get? Who is coaching him? How much more will be asked of him than was asked in college, and how will he deal with that?
“In college, you see guys looking to the sidelines for every coaching staff game,” said Tannenbaum. “In the NFL, with 15 seconds left on the game clock, that communication between the coach and the quarterback is cut. If you don’t have the ability to get into the right game yourself, it’s hard to be a successful quarterback. in the NFL. “
This whole thing is difficult. That’s what too many people forget and everyone should remember on April 29 when Roger Goodell calls out names and fans throw parties or chairs depending on whether they like the choice or not. This is not a matter of choosing the right person and hooking them up. It’s a matter of choosing the right person, structuring it to make it work, and hoping nothing goes wrong to get it off the track. Add all that, and it’s easy to see why most first-round picks don’t make it. And why the concept’s first night is just the beginning of a long, complicated process that will determine whether or not they do.