VATICAN CITY (AP) – Infectious disease experts express concern over Pope Francis’s upcoming trip to Iraq, given a surge in coronavirus infections there, a fragile healthcare system and the inevitable chance Iraqis will see him.
Nobody wants to tell Francis to call it off, and the Iraqi government has every interest in showing off its relative stability by welcoming the first Pope to Abraham’s birthplace. The March 5-8 trip is expected to provide a much-needed spiritual boost to the beleaguered Christians of Iraq, while advancing the Vatican’s bridging efforts with the Muslim world.
But from a purely epidemiological standpoint, as well as the public health message it sends out, a papal trip to Iraq amid a global pandemic is not advisable, health experts say.
Their concerns were heightened by news Sunday that the Vatican Ambassador to Iraq, the key person for the trip that would have accompanied Francis to all of his appointments, tested positive for COVID-19 and isolated himself.
In an email to The Associated Press, the embassy said Archbishop Mitja Leskovar’s symptoms were mild and he was preparing for Francis’s visit.
Outside of his case, experts note that wars, economic crises and an exodus of Iraqi professionals have devastated the country’s hospital system, while studies show that most of the new COVID-19 infections in Iraq are the highly contagious variant that emerged for the first time. was identified in Britain.
“I just don’t think it’s a good idea,” said Dr. Navid Madani, virologist and founder and director of the Center for Scientific Health Education in the Middle East and North Africa at Harvard Medical’s Dana-Farber Cancer Institute. School.
Iranian-born Madani co-authored an article in The Lancet last year about the region’s unequal response to COVID-19, noting that Iraq, Syria and Yemen were poorly placed to cope, as they were still increasingly grappling with extremist uprisings and have 40 million people. people in need of humanitarian assistance.
In a telephone interview, Madani said that Middle Eastern people are known for their hospitality, and warned that the enthusiasm among Iraqis to welcome a peacemaker like Francis to a neglected, war-torn part of the world would can lead to inadvertent violations of virus control measures. .
“This could potentially lead to unsafe or exaggerated risks,” she said.
Dr. Bharat Pankhania, infectious disease control expert at the University of Exeter College of Medicine, agreed.
“It’s a perfect storm to generate a lot of cases that you can’t treat,” he said.
The organizers promise to enforce mask mandates, social aloofness and audience boundaries, as well as the possibility of more testing locations, two Iraqi government officials said.
The health care protocols are “critical, but can be managed,” a government official told The Associated Press, on condition of anonymity.
And the Vatican has taken its own precautions, with the 84-year-old Pope, his 20-strong Vatican entourage, and the 70-plus journalists on the papal plane, all vaccinated.
But the Iraqis who gather in the north, center, and south of the country to attend Francis’ mass inside and outside, hear his speeches, and participate in his prayer meetings, have not been vaccinated.
And that, scientists say, is the problem.
“We are in the middle of a global pandemic. And it’s important to get the right messages out there, ”said Pankhania. “The right messages are: the fewer interactions with fellow humans, the better.”
He questioned the view of the Vatican delegation being vaccinated when the Iraqis are not, noting that Iraqis would take such risks only to attend those events because the Pope was there.
In words addressed to Vatican officials and the media, he said: “You are all protected from serious illness. So if you get infected, you don’t die. But the people who come to see you can become infected and die. “
Under those circumstances, is it wise to just show up? And because you show up, do people come to you and get infected? ” he asked.
The World Health Organization was diplomatic when asked about the wisdom of a papal trip to Iraq, saying countries should evaluate the risk of an event in light of the contagion situation, and then decide whether to postpone it.
“It’s all about managing that risk,” said Maria Van Kerkhove, WHO’s technical leader on COVID-19. “It’s about looking at the epidemiological situation in the country and then making sure that if that event happens, it can take place as safely as possible.”
Francis has said he plans to go, even if most Iraqis have to watch him on television to prevent infection. Most importantly, he told Catholic News Service, “they will see the Pope there in their country.”
Francis has often called for equitable distribution of vaccines and respect for government health measures, although he tends not to wear face masks. Francis even avoided a socially distant audience in the Vatican for months to limit the chance of contamination.
Dr. Michael Head, senior research fellow in global health at the University of Southampton’s Faculty of Medicine, said the number of new daily cases in Iraq “is currently on the rise,” with the Department of Health reporting about 4,000 a day, close to the height from the first wave in September.
Head said there should be infection control practices in place for any trip to Iraq, including wearing a mask, washing hands, socializing, and good ventilation in indoor areas.
“Hopefully we will see proactive approaches to infection control during the Pope’s visit to Baghdad,” he said.
The Iraqi government instituted an amended lockdown and curfew in mid-February amid a fresh increase in cases, closing schools and mosques and leaving restaurants and cafes open for takeout only. But the government decided against a complete shutdown due to the difficulty of enforcing it and its financial impact on Iraq’s battered economy, Iraqi officials told AP.
Many Iraqis remain lax in their use of masks and some question the seriousness of the virus.
Madani, the Harvard virologist, urged tour operators to let science and data guide their decision-making.
A decision to postpone or postpone the papal journey, or move it to a virtual format, would be “quite impactful from the standpoint of global leadership” because “it would mean giving priority to the security of the Iraqi public. “, she said.
Kullab reported from Baghdad. Jamey Keaten in Geneva contributed.
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