SEOUL, South Korea (AP) – By resuming its ballistic testing activities after a one-year hiatus, North Korea has demonstrated a potential nuclear weapon showing how it continues to expand its military capabilities amid a stalemate in diplomacy with the United States. States.
The two short-range missiles North fired at sea this week were the first meaningful provocation since President Joe Biden’s inauguration, who gave a reticent response to the launches on Thursday, saying, “There will be reactions if they choose to escalate. “
Since a provocative run in North Korean nuclear and missile tests in 2016 and 2017, the US focus has been largely on North Korea’s intercontinental ballistic missiles that pose a direct threat to the US homeland.
But experts say North Korea’s growing arsenal of short-range solid-fuel weapons is more destabilizing to US allies South Korea and Japan. And the latest launches underscored the North’s efforts to improve its capabilities for carrying out nuclear strikes and overwhelming missile defense systems.
THE MISSILE
North Korea’s state media said on Friday that the weapons it had fired from the east coast the day before were a new type of “tactically guided missile” borrowing core technology from an earlier system.
According to the Korean Central News Agency, the new solid-fuel missiles, which are designed to be fired from land vehicles, would be armed with warheads weighing as much as 2.5 tons. During Thursday’s tests, the missiles demonstrated maneuverable flight at low altitude and accurately hit a target at sea 600 kilometers (372 miles) away.
Analysts say the North has likely tested an improved version of a system modeled after Russia’s Iskander mobile ballistic missile. Due to their flatter trajectories compared to conventional ballistic weapons, they fly at an altitude where the air is dense enough to be maneuverable. Its unpredictability makes it more difficult to be intercepted by missile defense systems, experts say.
The South Korean military took an unusually long time to release its assessment of the launches Thursday, before saying hours later that the missiles could travel as much as 450 kilometers (279 miles).
Kim Dong-yub, a professor at the University of North Korean Studies in Seoul, said the discrepancy between the South Korean and North Korean ratings may show how difficult it is for radar systems to accurately track these missiles in flight.
“Even if our military is wrong, it doesn’t matter for now as they can easily adjust their rating after analyzing satellite data,” said Kim, a former South Korean military official. “But how are you going to do that in times of war?”
THE WARHEAD
Whether rockets have traveled 450 kilometers or 600 kilometers, that’s more than enough range to hit every corner of mainland South Korea. And experts say the North’s efforts to arm them with massive nuclear warheads indicate they are being designed for nuclear strike.
The tests came after North Korean leader Kim Jong-un vowed to strengthen his nuclear deterrent in the face of US-led sanctions and pressure at a governmental party congress in January, and issued a broad wishlist of military hardware, including new tactics. nuclear weapons.
If North Korea successfully develops an operational system, these missiles will provide the ability to conduct tactical nuclear attacks on military bases and other strategic targets in South Korea, said Yang Wook, a military expert who teaches at Hannam University in South Korea.
“We have long said that it would be difficult for North Korea to place nuclear warheads on (short-range) missiles if they do not become small and light enough,” said Yang. But North Korea would no longer have to do this if its missiles could reliably deliver a 2.5-ton warhead, which Yang said would be more than three times heavier than most warheads on existing North Korean missiles. .
Lee Choon Geun, a missile expert at the Science and Technology Policy Institute in South Korea, said the missiles would pose a huge threat to South Korea, even if conventionally armed.
“A conventional 2.5 ton warhead would be enough to destroy deeply built bunkers,” he said. “That capability would also allow for something more powerful than tactical nuclear weapons, possibly thermonuclear devices.”
TEST MORE
North Korea has a history of testing new US governments with weapons demonstrations aimed at forcing Americans back to the negotiating table.
Kim Jong-un has so far seen nothing to show for his ambitious summits with former President Donald Trump, which collapsed in 2019 over disagreements over the release of crippling US-led sanctions against North Korea and the North’s disarmament measures.
While Thursday’s launches were less provocative compared to the 2017 nuclear and ICBM tests that sparked war fears before the North switched to diplomacy with the Trump administration in 2018, most experts say the North is likely to ramp up its testing activities.
The North carried out more than a dozen short-term launches amid stalled diplomacy in 2019 and 2020 when Trump rejected the tests despite the threat they posed to South Korea and Japan. The United States is stationing a total of 80,000 troops in the two Asian countries, the core of the US military presence in the Asia-Pacific region.
“These missiles are no joke, because it seems pretty clear that they want to mount nuclear warheads” and evade missile defense systems, said Duyeon Kim, a senior analyst at the Washington-based Center for a New American Security.
She said the nature of these missiles requires the US and South Korea to develop an effective response by returning to their normal scale and scope of joint military exercises, which have been downsized under the Trump administration to make room for diplomacy.
AP writer Aamer Madhani contributed to the story from Washington.