It’s no secret that a new Shimano Dura-Ace groupset is on the way.
Shimano has been updating its Dura-Ace groupset on a four-year cycle for many years. However, with launches in 2008, 2012, and 2016, the new Dura-Ace was expected to arrive in 2020, but to no avail. For reasons unknown – possibly related to COVID-19 – Shimano broke its trend and we are now in the fifth year with the current iteration, Dura-Ace R9100 series.
In the five years since its launch, Shimano’s competition in the best high-speed road bike groupsets has advanced. Both SRAM and Campagnolo have increased the number of gears to 12 – or 13 – if you count Campag’s new Ekar gravel groupset – and then the range of gears too. SRAM and FSA have even raised the bar with wireless technology, making initial setup and maintenance easier.
Despite this, Shimano’s current Dura-Ace groupset is still an exceptional piece of engineering and still has a loyal following. Despite SRAM Red eTap AXS having both wireless technology and 12-speed on its side, the debate over today’s best road bike groups is still fiercely contested.
But with the imminent arrival of the new Dura-Ace, what do we know, what do we expect and when will it launch? Over the past year, a slew of patents and legal documents have been discovered that have given us a few clues. So let’s go through the rumors and speculation to find out what’s to come.
What will be the name of the series?
Cyclingnews prediction: new Dura-Ace will almost certainly be called R9200 and R9250 for mechanical and electrical respectively
FCC (US Federal Communications Commission) documents pertaining to radio frequency – which we will explain in more detail later – contain the name of two DAT files that refer to software. For the document pertaining to the shifter, the file name starts with STR9250 and for the document pertaining to the rear derailleur, the file name starts with RDR9250.
To explain why this is relevant, Shimano’s part numbers are preceded by letters referring to the part in question, ST is the part number prefix for Shimano’s shifters and RD is the rear derailleur. For example, an RD-R9150 is a current series rear derailleur (R9150). So having the RD and ST prefixes on documents pertaining to the relevant components, with the inclusion of the next set’s predicted name (R9250), is fairly compelling evidence. If not, it is an unimaginably great coincidence.
Possible launch date: not confirmed
The obvious guess here is that Dura-Ace will launch in line with Shimano’s 100th anniversary. Shimano even has a teaser site with a full screen countdown, with a note saying “The official Centennial site will open on March 23, 2021”. However, it’s worth noting that the countdown is currently ending two days earlier, at 12:00 AM on March 21.
Looking at history for clues, March would be earlier than Shimano’s typical tactics. Dura-Ace 7900 was launched on June 3, 2008.The 9000 version arrived at a similar time of the year on May 31, with R9100 a few weeks later in the year, on June 29, 2016.
What we do know is that both Team DSM and Groupama-FDJ have reaffirmed their long-standing partnership with Shimano for the 2021 season, so we expect those teams to be involved in the launch in some way. Since Dura-Ace is the flagship groupset in the Shimano range, when it launches, we expect it to be seen for the first time on Team DSM’s Scott bikes or Groupama’s Lapierres.
Will the new Dura-Ace be wireless?
Cyclingnews prediction: The new Dura-Ace will almost certainly feature wireless technology in some form or another.
The most notable clues so far have been patents issued in November by our friends at Cycling tips, which featured wireless radio receivers in the shifters and derailleurs, as well as a battery in the shifters.
The patent drawings showed road levers, ruling out the possibility that this patent is an MTB or e-bike development. Given that none of Shimano’s current road groups are wireless, it therefore seems likely that Dura-Ace would be the first to get the technology.
The FCC documents related to wireless radio frequencies mentioned earlier support the theory. These documents confirmed that Shimano has received FCC certification in the United States for the use of a radio frequency entitled ‘Shimano Original’ at 2,478 MHz in its shifters and a rear derailleur.
Or will it be semi-wireless?
Cyclingnews prediction: probably
The other rumor that has arisen is the possibility of a semi-wireless option, which is not too different from the configuration of FSA’s K-Force WE disc groupset. This would link the derailleurs together via a battery in the frame, and this trio of components would then wirelessly transmit to the shifters.
In those November patents, Shimano included multiple variations of the final setup, leaving a few possible results – and so we keep guessing. In one variant, a wireless transmitter and battery were shown to be housed in each of the front and rear derailleurs. In another, however, there was a separate battery connecting the derailleurs.
Specifically, the FCC documentation omits any mention of a front derailleur, suggesting in itself that the rear derailleur could act as the ‘brain’ of the system and the front derailleur would be connected to the rear via a Di2 e-tube cable or similar. This would work in mirror image for FSA, which houses the brain in the front derailleur.
Another notable entry in the FCC documentation is the mention of a BT-DN300, which, to anyone who knows their Shimano part numbers, is a battery for their Di2 systems. The current iteration of the Di2 battery has part number BT-DN110, which suggests that BT-DN300 is new.
We saw Shimano launch new, lighter, faster e-tube cables (EW-SD300) in August 2020, along with the latest EP8 motor, so if the new Dura-Ace is indeed wired in a certain capacity, chances are that BT-DN300 compatible with those new cables. The suffix ‘300’ on those part numbers might be a clue, but since BT-DN110 is compatible with EW-SD50 cables, we don’t read too much into that.
The BT-DN300 battery could very well be housed in the frame and compatible with those new cables, but it could also just be the part number given to a proprietary battery to be housed in the derailleurs.
At this stage, it’s not yet confirmed which way Shimano will go, but our best guess would be that the new Dura-Ace will be semi-wireless. If so, it would be a way to improve the original setup of today’s modern racing bikes, eliminating the need to run an extra cable through today’s complicated integrated cockpits.
Will it be 12-speed?
Cyclingnews prediction: the new Dura-Ace will almost certainly be 12-speed
The same patent documentation that gave directions for the wireless technology also included a very succinct drawing of a 12-speed cassette.
This, coupled with the expectation that Shimano will follow its competitors in the 12-speed realm, suggests quite strongly that the new Dura-Ace groupset will be 12-speed. The documentation clearly pertains to a road groupset, with the patent drawings showing a side view of a bike with a lowered handlebar – with rim brakes, no less.
There is a small caveat here, however, that the largest sprocket size of the cassette shown in the diagram is 36 teeth. More than you’d expect from a top-tier Shimano road cassette. The smallest sprocket size on this cassette is 10 teeth, confirming that Shimano is following SRAM’s lead to include a 10-tooth sprocket, and this could mean Shimano will also be following the lead to reduce chainring size, which means in turn, it would be a way to explain the possible need for a 36T sprocket.
For us, here are two possible explanations: Either the new Dura-Ace rear derailleur offers radically greater capacity than its predecessor so it can handle a 10-36T cassette, or Shimano has fast-moving plans to drip down 12-speed. to lower level ranges where a 36T cassette sprocket is more likely to be desired.
Is it just disc brakes?
Cyclingnews prediction: The new Dura-Ace comes with both rim and disc brake variants
The November patents also include mentions of both cable and hydraulic variants, which, given the lack of cable-actuated Dura-Ace-level disc brakes, suggests rim brakes will continue to be part of the Shimano Dura-Ace lineup. Rim brake purists rejoice.
Will it charge itself?
Cyclingnews prediction: New Dura-Ace will likely feature battery regeneration technology, but groupset won’t be completely self-sufficient
Going back to those November patents, it turned out that the shifters had a “power generation unit.” The patent suggests that this technology would use the movement of the shift paddles to generate power thanks to the inclusion of a piezoelectric component, which in turn would generate power and charge the battery.
The drawings show button cell batteries integrated into the shifters, so we expect this power generation will simply charge the shifters themselves rather than the whole system. Especially considering we predict it will be wireless in some way.
Does it only apply to the group set? How about wheels?
Cyclingnews forecast: the new Dura-Ace will feature the full range of components as it currently does, including groupset, wheels and a crankset with power meter
It would be surprising to see new Dura-Ace omitting wheels from the range, especially considering previous iterations have included wheels – both tubular and clincher – in the range.
We saw certain riders from both Team Sunweb (the former name of Team DSM) and Groupama-FDJ, both wearing all-new, unbranded wheels at the 2020 Tour de France. Obviously, it’s not the first time a WorldTour team has sponsored rogue is, but in this case, given both teams’ connection to the brand and the upcoming launch of Dura-Ace, we expect the wheel to be a new Dura-Ace prototype. is tested in the rigorous testbed that is the Tour.