New Covid variety first found in UK could become dominant strain in US in March, CDC says

A more contagious strain of the coronavirus first found in the UK late last year could become the dominant strain in the United States by March as the nation rushes to vaccinate people against the disease, according to a new one. study from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

“The modeled trajectory of this variant in the US shows rapid growth in early 2021, and the predominant variant in March, ” said the CDC study released Friday.

Researchers warned that wider spread could put more stress on national hospitals and that more public health measures might be needed to stop the transmission of the virus until enough people have been vaccinated. Reinforced surveillance of the mutating viruses coupled with better adherence to public health measures, such as wearing a mask, washing hands, and taking physical distance, could slow the spread of the virus, they said.

“These measures will be more effective if introduced sooner rather than later to slow the initial spread of the B.1.1.7 variant. Attempts to prepare the health care system for further spikes in justified cases,” said the researchers.

So far, according to CDC data last updated Wednesday, the country has found only 76 cases of Covid-19 with the highly contagious variant known as B.1.1.7. However, many of the cases identified involve people with no travel history, suggesting that the variant is spreading unnoticed in the community.

Global health experts have claimed that while the new variant found in the UK and a similar species found in South Africa are more contagious, they do not appear to make people sicker or increase the risk of death.

However, more cases could eventually lead to additional hospitalizations at a time when the nation is already experiencing record highs of Covid-19 patients. The rapid transmission of the new variants may require more people to be vaccinated to achieve so-called herd immunity, the researchers said.

Herd immunity is when enough of the population is immune to a disease, either through vaccination or natural infection, that makes it unlikely to spread and protect the rest of the community, the Mayo Clinic says.

The US has had a slow start to its vaccination efforts, falling short of its target of vaccinating 20 million people by the end of last year. The US has administered more than 31.1 million doses to date, but only 12.3 million doses, according to data from the CDC.

There is also concern that the new variants, especially the strain found in South Africa, could be more resistant to monoclonal antibody treatments, which have been shown to reduce someone’s chances of landing in the hospital if taken early enough are given with their infection.

The CDC Study

According to the agency’s research, the current prevalence of the variant in the US is still unknown, but based on the analysis, it is believed to be less than 0.5% of cases. The US has not yet discovered the variant found in South Africa or any other species identified in Japan among travelers from Brazil, the researchers said.

In their model, researchers estimated that the variant was 50% more transmissible than the current strains. They also estimate that between 10% and 30% of people already have immunity to pre-existing infections and that as of this month, 1 million doses of vaccine will be administered per day.

While the prevalence of the B.1.1.7 strain is believed to be low, given its high transmissibility, it is likely to grow rapidly in early 2021, the model found. Even with vaccines, the variant will continue to spread, although the drugs had the greatest effect in reducing the transmission of the strain in sites where the disease was already on the wane.

“Early efforts to limit the spread of the B.1.1.7 variant, such as universal and increased adherence to public health mitigation strategies, will allow more time for continuous vaccination to achieve higher population-level immunity” , the study said.