JERUSALEM (AP) – Israelis began voting on Tuesday in the country’s fourth parliamentary election in two years – a highly incriminating referendum over Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s divisive rule.
Polls predict a fierce race between those who support Israel’s longest-serving prime minister and those who want “everyone but Bibi,” as he is commonly known.
“This is the moment of truth for the State of Israel,” Netanyahu rival Yair Lapid said as he cast his vote in Tel Aviv.
One truth: Israelis are tired of restructuring. The ballot, like Israel’s leading vaccination campaign, received good reviews for the organization – if only because all involved have a lot of practice, with the potential of even more if the results don’t yield a ruling majority. That answer may not be clear for weeks.
“It would be better if we didn’t have to vote, you know, four times in two years,” said Jerusalem resident Bruse Rosen after casting his vote. “It’s a bit exhausting.”
Candidates made their final push in recent days with a series of TV interviews and public appearances in malls and open-air marketplaces. The campaigns increasingly reached people’s personal space with a constant barrage of text messages that made cell phones ring and buzz at all hours of the day.
It’s about more than ideology about Netanyahu. He has portrayed himself as a global statesman uniquely qualified to lead the country through its many security and diplomatic challenges. He has made Israel’s successful coronavirus vaccination campaign the center of his reelection and pointed out last year’s diplomatic deals with four Arab states.
The reality is more nuanced. About 80% of the country’s 9.3 million people have been vaccinated and Israel is reopening, but more than 6,000 have died from COVID-19. Israel has come under international criticism for failing to quickly send significant amounts of vaccines to the Palestinians to combat the spread of the virus in the West Bank and Gaza.
And one of the four Arab nations, the United Arab Emirates, recently poured cold water on its relationship with Israel because its leaders did not want Netanyahu to involve them in elections. The new administration of President Joe Biden has also given Netanyahu a cool reception.
Opponents accuse Netanyahu of messing up the management of the coronavirus pandemic for most of the past year. They say he has failed to impose lockdown restrictions on his ultra-Orthodox political allies, allowing the virus to spread, and point to the still dire state of the economy and the double-digit unemployment rate. They also say Netanyahu is unfit to rule at a time when he is on trial on multiple charges of corruption, a case he dismisses as a witch hunt.
Up to 15% of voters are expected to vote outside of their home district, a range of absentee ballots that is greater than normal for those with coronavirus or quarantined. The government is sending special polling stations, including bringing ballot boxes to patients’ beds, to give them ways to vote safely.
Those votes are counted separately in Jerusalem, meaning the final results may not be known for days. Given the tight race, the high number of undecided voters and some small parties struggling to cross the 3.25% threshold for entry into parliament, it can be difficult to predict the outcome before the final count is complete.
Israelis vote for parties, not individual candidates. No candidate list has been able to form a ruling majority in Israel’s 72-year history.
Netanyahu’s Likud party and those led by its rivals will view smaller, allied parties as potential coalition partners. The party that can merge a majority coalition may form the next government – a process expected to take weeks.
Tuesday’s election was triggered by the breakup of an emergency government formed last May between Netanyahu and his main rival to contain the coronavirus pandemic. The alliance was plagued by infighting, and the elections were triggered by the government’s failure to agree on a budget in December.
Netanyahu hopes to form a government with his traditional religious and hard-line nationalist allies. These include a few ultra-Orthodox parties and a small religious party with openly racist and homophobic candidates.
Netanyahu’s rivals have accused him of causing paralysis for the past two years in hopes of forming a more favorable government that would grant him immunity or protect him from prosecution.
His challengers include Yair Lapid, Israel’s opposition leader whose Yesh Atid party has emerged as the main centrist alternative to Netanyahu.
Lapid on Tuesday echoed the race’s grim rhetoric when he presented himself as an alternative to a “ government of darkness and racism. ”
Netanyahu is also facing challenges from a number of former allies who formed their own parties following a bitter break with the prime minister.
They include former protege Gideon Saar, who broke away from Likud to form ‘New Hope’. He says the party is a nationalist alternative that is not burdened by corruption charges and that he believes is a cult of personality that keeps Likud in power.
Yamina party leader Naftali Bennett, another former Netanyahu aide, could appear as the kingmaker. Bennett, a hard-line nationalist politician who was previously Netanyahu’s Education and Defense Minister, has not ruled out joining a coalition with the embattled prime minister, which could bring both sides to justice in future coalition talks.
Personality politics has caught up to the race to the point where the Palestinians are almost non-existent, after years of frozen peace talks.
Analysts expect voter fatigue to contribute to a lower turnout, which was 71% in the most recent election a year ago.
Netanyahu’s religious and nationalist allies are generally highly motivated voters. In contrast, Arab voters, disappointed by the breakup of the overarching “Joint List” party, are expected to stay home in larger numbers this time. Voters in the more liberal and secular areas around Tel Aviv also tend to have a lower participation rate.
Netanyahu could benefit if these trends materialize. But unlike last year’s election, the prime minister has no significant ally: former President Donald Trump, whose support he used in previous elections with huge billboards on highways and high-rises showing them together.
In contrast, Netanyahu has hardly mentioned Biden. The new US president called the prime minister only after contacting leaders of several other countries and Israel’s supporters began to complain that the delay was scornful. The two men insist that their alliance remains close.
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