JERUSALEM (AP) – Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who has spent much of his long career promoting Israel’s Arab minority as a potential fifth column led by terrorist sympathizers, now openly asks for their support as he less than two years.
Few Arabs are likely to heed his call, underscoring the despair of Netanyahu’s political somersault. But the relative absence of incitement against the community in this campaign and the possible breakup of an Arab party alliance could dampen the turnout – in Netanyahu’s favor. In fact, he could get just enough votes to hold tight elections.
Regardless, Netanyahu’s rapprochement has shaken the Arab community. The Joint List, an alliance of Arab parties that secured a record 15 seats in the 120-member Knesset last March, is torn apart by a dispute over whether it should partner with Netanyahu’s right-wing Likud at a time when less reprehensible center-left parties in disarray.
Its demise would leave the community with even less representation as it faces a terrifying crime wave, coronavirus-fueled unemployment and persistent inequality. But given the complexity of Israel’s coalition system, a breakaway Arab party could gain inordinate influence if it is willing to cooperate with Netanyahu or other traditionally hostile leaders.
The battle was vividly seen last week as Netanyahu traveled to Nazareth, the largest Arab-majority city in Israel, his third visit to an Arab district in less than two weeks. Outside the site, dozens of people, including some Arab MPs, protested against his visit and fought with the police, even as the city’s mayor welcomed and praised him.
“Netanyahu came like a thief to try to scrape votes from the Arab street,” said Aida Touma-Suleiman, a prominent Joint List legislator. “Your attempt to dismantle our community from within will not succeed.”
Arabs make up about 20% of the Israeli population. They have full citizenship, including the right to vote, and have a large and growing presence in universities, healthcare and other professions. But they face widespread discrimination and accuse lax Israeli law enforcement of a growing wave of violent crimes in their communities.
They have close family ties with Palestinians in the occupied West Bank and Gaza, and largely identify with their cause. This has led many Jews to find them sympathetic to Israel’s enemies, sentiments fueled by Netanyahu and other right-wing politicians.
On the eve of the 2015 election, Netanyahu warned his supporters that Arabs were voting en masse. During consecutive elections in 2019, his campaign sent survey observers to Arab districts and pushed for cameras in voting booths, in what critics say was a trick. to intimidate Arab voters and stir up false allegations of electoral fraud.
Those movements failed spectacularly.
The Joint List, a lumbering alliance of Islamists, communists and other leftists, increased attendance and grew into one of the largest blocs in parliament. At times it seemed it would help to deny Netanyahu a majority coalition or even appear as the official opposition.
But last May, after three stalemates in less than a year, Netanyahu formed a coalition with his main rival and the Joint List was left in the cold. In the upcoming election, polls indicate that a coalition of right-wing and centrist parties working to end Netanyahu’s nearly 12-year rule could oust him without the Arab bloc.
No Arab party has ever asked or been invited to join a ruling coalition.
In Nazareth, Netanyahu claimed his 2015 comments were misinterpreted – that he only warned Arab voters not to support the Joint List.
“All Israeli citizens, both Jews and Arabs, must vote,” he said. In other Arab cities, he has visited coronavirus vaccination centers and boasts of his success in securing millions of doses and encouraging residents to get vaccinated.
Netanyahu’s Arab reach appears to have given the green light to centrist and left-wing politicians to do the same, with less concern that their right-wing rivals will use it against them. Opposition leader Yair Lapid, Netanyahu’s main center-left opponent, said last weekend that he was open to forming a government with external backing from the Joint List.
Meanwhile, the Joint List is showing signs of breaking up. Mansour Abbas, the head of an Islamist party, has opened up to partnering with Netanyahu in recent months to address issues such as housing and law enforcement. An Abbas employee declined requests for an interview.
A complete breakdown of the common list could further reduce voter turnout and possibly give one or more of the four parties too little support to cross the electoral threshold.
Thabet Abu Rass, the co-director of the Abraham Initiatives who works to promote equality between Jews and Arabs, says Netanyahu may attract a small number of Arab voters, but many more of them are simply boycotting the elections.
“They’re waiting to see if there is a Joint List or not, and if you ask me, it won’t happen,” he said. “There are many deep differences this time.”
A poll in December predicted Arab turnout at around 55%, much lower than last March’s 65%.
While Arab parties have historically underperformed, some believe the parties could be more effective individually. In the Israeli political system – which requires prime ministers to form majority coalitions – small parties often exercise inordinate influence.
“When we talk about the Palestinian community in Israel, we’re not talking about one bloc, we have different ideologies,” said Nijmeh Ali, policy analyst at Al-Shabaka, an international Palestinian think tank. “Sometimes you have to break up to get power.”
Netanyahu appears to be focused on the margins ahead of a tight race that could determine not only whether he stays in office, but whether he ensures immunity from prosecution on multiple corruption allegations. With just a few seats, a pragmatic politician like Abbas could determine Netanyahu’s fate.
“This is the new thing in Arab politics,” said Arik Rudnitzky, a research fellow at the Israel Democracy Institute. “They are ready to enter into direct negotiations with Likud.”
He said this does not mean that they will be part of a governing coalition, but that they can provide outside support to secure benefits for the Arab public. “It could be a win-win situation,” he said.
___
Areej Hazboun, journalists from the Associated Press in Jerusalem and Ami Bentov in Nazareth, Israel, contributed to this report.