Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his closest associates are very nervous about the transition to a new US administration after a four-year honeymoon with Donald Trump. An Israeli official told me it felt like a detox.
What he says: Netanyahu congratulated Biden minutes after he was sworn in and said in a statement that he looked forward to working together to “further expand peace between Israel and the Arab world and address common challenges, the most important of which is the threat from Iran. . “
Between the lines: Netanyahu fiercely opposes Biden’s plan to return to the nuclear deal with Iran, leaving the two on a collision course.
- Secretary of State Tony Blinken said at his confirmation hearing on Tuesday that the US would not back into the deal and would consult with Israel and the Gulf states before re-joining.
But that is not reassured Netanyahu and his closest associates, who were concerned that some of the deal’s architects and fiercest advocates were joining Biden’s government.
- Biden and Blinken are now considering Rob Malley – a former Middle East adviser to Barack Obama who was deeply involved in the talks leading up to the 2015 deal – as the Iranian government envoy working out of the State Department, Israeli say. and US officials.
- A Biden assistant said no final decision had been made on a possible appointment. The State Department declined to comment.
The other side: Israeli officials welcomed Brett McGurk’s choice to keep the Middle East file in Biden’s National Security Council (NSC).
- McGurk has close relationships with many senior officials in the Israeli Security Institute. As an expert on Iraq and Syria, he is expected to focus much of his work on Iran’s regional activity, an issue of great concern to Israel.
On the Israeli-Palestinian issue, which is not expected to be a high priority for Biden, Blinken admitted during his hearing that he does not expect any progress towards a peace agreement in the near future.
- Israeli officials were pleased with those comments, as well as Blinken’s support for Trump’s Abraham Accords trial and statements that the US would continue to recognize Jerusalem as Israel’s capital.
- Unlike Obama and Trump, Biden is not expected to appoint a special envoy for the Middle East peace process. That portfolio will likely be managed by the Assistant Secretary of the State Department for Near East Affairs. It is not yet clear whether Blinken would like a career officer or a politician for that job.
- Jon Finer, who worked on the Israeli-Palestinian issue while on the staff of then Secretary of State John Kerry, could also influence government policies in his new role as deputy national security adviser.
Four women will play a key role in dealing with relations with Israel under Biden:
- Barbara Leaf will be the Senior Director for the Middle East at the NSC, Julie Sawyer will work under Leaf as the Director for Israel-Palestine, Dana Stroul will be the Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for the Middle East and Mira Resnick will be Deputy Assistant Secretary. of State for politico-military matters.
- All four are known and respected in the establishment of Israeli national security and foreign policy.
Flashback: Under Trump, the relationship between the US and Israel was managed from above by a small number of officials from the White House and the Prime Minister’s office.
- The Biden administration is expected to operate in a more traditional way, meaning Netanyahu and his aides will not have near-unrestricted access to the president.
- Israel will have to give a new premium to building relationships at lower levels within the NSC, the State Department and the Pentagon.
What’s next: Separate discussions on how to deal with the Biden government are held in the office of the Prime Minister, the Department of Defense, and the Department of State.
- But due to political tensions between Netanyahu and his foreign and defense ministers, there have been no inter-institutional meetings and no signs of a unified Israeli strategy on issues like Iran and the Palestinians.