NC weather: Risk of damaging winds, severe storms raised to level 4 from 5 for Thursday in Raleigh and rest of central North Carolina

RALEIGH, NC (WTVD) – A warmer and relatively clear Wednesday gives way to a potentially dangerous Thursday.

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The severe weather sweeping through the Deep South on Wednesday is expected to arrive in central North Carolina on Thursday afternoon.

New weather models caused the National Weather Service to increase our risk of severe weather from improved to moderate. This is a rare level of risk.

The last time central North Carolina was in moderate severe weather risk, the day before the storms hit, was in late December 2012. Although, frankly, that serious risk died. The storms that came did not cause any reports of serious damage.

The exact timing of the storms remains in flux, but the First Alert Team said the latest information suggests that most of the storms will arrive by mid-afternoon and be gone by early evening.

The chance of harmful wind is at the highest possible risk level. There’s a nearly 45 percent chance of damaging straight winds blowing somewhere in central North Carolina. That means gusts of wind of 70-90 miles per hour.

The tornado threat is less likely, but still possible. The threat level is moderate, which translates to a 15 percent chance that an EF2-EF5 tornado could happen.

Local flooding and hail are also possible with the system.

WATCH: Big Weather lists the most likely scenarios for Thursday’s storm

One thing to watch out for happens Thursday morning. That was when we could see some scattered showers before the severe storms arrived.

The presence of showers on Thursday morning would be a good sign, according to ABC11 Meteorologist Don “Big Weather” Schwenneker. He said morning showers would help stabilize the atmosphere, which in turn could lessen the severity of the storms when they arrive later in the day.

Once this weather event is over, the rain could linger until Friday. Daytime temperatures fall into the 1940s with gusty winds.

Saturday and Sunday will see temperatures in the 50s, with more sun on Saturday and more heat on Sunday.

If you’re a fan of the warmer spring weather, the 70s will return next week.

GMA’s Ginger Zee joins the First Alert Team for Severe Weather Townhall