Navalny movement scraps protests as it digs long-term

Instead, his move will focus on parliamentary elections in September, when its backers hope to sack the ruling United Russia party loyal to President Vladimir Putin.

The rallies sparked a crackdown by authorities when police beat up protesters and arrested thousands, including many of the opposition leader’s top allies. That use of force put the average Russians drawn to the movement at risk on a dangerous road to confront the Kremlin, said Leonid Volkov, one of Mr Navalny’s top lieutenants.

“Tens of millions of people watched in horror [Mr. Putin] showed that he was ready to defeat peaceful unarmed protesters with his storm troops, ”Mr Volkov told supporters on Thursday in a video.

Last Sunday, Russian police arrested the highest number of protesters in one day in recent history. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said the next day that law enforcement officials were justified because the protests were illegal.

The protests were organized in response to Mr Navalny’s detention on his return from Germany last month, where he was recovering from a poison attack last year. An informal poll found that more than 40% of protesters at rallies across the country on Jan. 23 underscored broader dissatisfaction with the Kremlin for the first time in their lives.

In 2013, after a judge found him guilty of embezzlement, Mr. Navalny released after his supporters called for his liberation at demonstrations outside the Kremlin. Since then, Mr. Putin has become less tolerant of dissent, analysts say. At the same time, Mr. Navalny has become a more powerful political force of international standing, raising the stakes around street protests.

The decision to end the protests reflects concerns in Mr. Navalny on the effectiveness of bringing people out to protest weekly.

In neighboring Belarus, President Alexander Lukashenko – an ally of Mr Putin – faces months of protests from protesters who claim that the elections he won last August were neither free nor fair. The Belarusian authorities have detained thousands.

Mr. Navalny watched as massive protests played to no avail, Mr. Volkov.

Mr. Putin “learned from Lukashenko that you can hit people very, very, very painfully and still keep them in power,” he said. “It was an election that drove people into the streets of Belarus. Our election is still ahead of us. “

In the coming months, Mr Navalny’s team will instead pursue a two-pronged strategy. The movement, which has gained notoriety through online disclosures of wealth and corruption in Kremlink circles, will help European authorities identify stolen assets and money laundered in the European Union.

At home, it will focus on the ballot box and Mr. Promote Navalny to identify and support viable opposition candidates in races across the country to screw up United Russia’s numbers.

“We must redirect and use the great anger and discontent that has accumulated prior to the elections” against United Russia, Mr Volkov said.

Although Mr Putin is not a member of United Russia, the party has been behind his policies, including by supporting a constitutional amendment that would allow him to remain in power for years, and by supporting laws that tighten and restrict internet freedoms. free speech in Russia.

The voting tactics Mr. Navalny has been described as ‘smart voting’, has had mixed results in the past, and last year’s efforts in local elections paid off in only a handful of regions. But Mr Volkov said increased opposition visibility along with growing discontent will help “tear United Russia to pieces”.

Some supporters were disappointed by the cessation of protests, although others said the movement may bide its time.

“There are pluses and minuses, people’s emotions will cool down now, but if we are really focused on parliamentary elections, it is too early to push for change now,” said Andrey Neyman, a 45-year-old entrepreneur in Kaliningrad who had joined the protests. “We can wait for May and sunny again.”

The explosion of public anger against the Kremlin has come at a time when Mr Putin is pondering his own political future. A slew of new laws and constitutional changes last year allowed him to stay in power until 2036.

“The Kremlin was hoping for the support of the people to make this transition as easy as possible,” said Nikolai Petrov, senior research fellow at Chatham House, a think tank. “Navalny ruined Putin’s game.”

Since he returned to Russia last month, the protests have raised Navalny and his group in a country where state television ignores or derides him as irrelevant.

But data from independent pollster Levada last week showed that national attitudes toward Mr Putin had not changed significantly over the nearly three-week period since the protests began.

Sociologists say that while confidence in him as president has fallen somewhat, his approval rating is unlikely to drop below 60% given the widespread political apathy among much of the population.

Whether or not Mr. Navalny and his team can tear down that passive support is key to the future of their movement.

“The resources available to the Kremlin and the opposition are totally uneven, and so the people of Navalny must use whatever advantage they have to outsmart the Kremlin,” Petrov said. “And here their advantage is the ability to quickly outsmart the Kremlin, which has become increasingly inert.”

Write to Thomas Grove at [email protected]