“Every time we participate in such an exercise, we learn more about who are the key players in a disaster, who needs to know what information and when,” said Lindley Johnson, NASA’s Planetary Defense Officer. “These exercises ultimately help the planetary defense community communicate with each other and with our governments to ensure that we are all coordinated should a potential impact threat be identified in the future.”
So far, NASA has participated in seven impact scenarios: four at previous Planetary Defense Conferences (2013, 2015, 2017 and 2019) and three in partnership with the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA). The joint NASA-FEMA exercises involved representatives from several other federal agencies, including the Ministries of Defense and State.
“Hypothetical asteroid impact drills allow us to think about how we would react if it turns out that a significant asteroid has a significant chance of impacting our planet,” said Dr. Paul Chodas, Director of CNEOS. Details of the scenario – such as the probability of the asteroid impact, where and when the impact could occur – will be released to participants in a series of steps throughout the days of the conference to simulate how an actual situation could evolve . “
The fictional scenario begins on April 26, when astronomers “discover” a potentially dangerous NEO that considers a risk to Earth. Details about the imaginary asteroid’s threat to our planet will evolve over the days of the conference, and participants in the exercise will discuss possible preparations for asteroid reconnaissance and deflection missions and plans to mitigate the consequences of a potential impact. But it is a realistic parameter that the international community has decided that a 1 in 100 chance of impact is the threshold for starting response measures.
The Planetary Defense Conference and its exercise serve as precursors to the launch of NASA’s Double Asteroid Redirection Test (DART), the first-ever actual demonstration of an asteroid deflection technology, and the first test mission of the agency’s Planetary Defense program. DART will launch later this year and will impact the asteroid Dimorphos in the fall of 2022 to change its orbit in space, which could be an important technique to mitigate a potentially dangerous asteroid on a collision path with Earth, should one be discovered in the future. Through an international observation campaign, follow-up observations from Dimorphos using ground-based telescopes will track Dimorphos’ orbit and measure the change in time it takes for the asteroid to orbit its larger companion, Didymos, as a result of the impact of DART.
“DART will be the first planetary defense test, and the data returned after it impacts Dimorphos will help scientists better understand how we can mitigate a potentially dangerous NEO discovered in the future,” said Andrea Riley, program manager for DART at NASA headquarters. . “While the asteroid DART impact does not pose a threat to Earth, it is in a perfect location for us to run this test of the technology before it is actually needed.”
Starting April 26, this page will be updated throughout the week with quick snapshots capturing the results of each step of the exercise. More information about the exercise, including a “fact sheet” with updated findings, will be available on the exercise page on the PDC Hypothetical Asteroid Impact Scenario 2021 page.