NASA is conducting an internal evaluation of the Space Launch System rocket’s affordability, two sources have told Ars Technica.
Concerned about the excessive cost of the program, the NASA transition team appointed by President Joe Biden initiated the investigation. The analysis is led by Paul McConnaughey, a former deputy center director of NASA’s Marshall Space Flight Center in Huntsville, as well as its chief engineer.
The SLS missile program has been operated by Marshall for over a decade. Critics have derided it as a “ job program ” designed to retain workers at key centers such as Alabama-based Marshall, as well as those at prime contractors such as Boeing, Northrop Grumman and Aerojet Rocketdyne. Such criticism has been reinforced by frequent planning delays – the SLS was originally scheduled to launch in 2016 and the missile will now not be launched until 2022 – and cost overruns.
For now, cost appears to be driving the White House’s concerns. With a maximum cadence of one launch per year, the SLS rocket is expected to cost more than $ 2 billion per flight, in addition to the $ 20 billion that NASA has already spent on developing the vehicle and its ground systems. Some of the new officials do not believe the Artemis Moon program is sustainable with such launch costs.
Cost concerns
McConnaughey is leading the study for Kathy Lueders, NASA’s chief of manned space flight. Even before the study got underway, McConnaughey had pushed for the SLS program to be more cost-effective. One goal of this analysis is to find ways in which the large NASA missile can effectively compete with privately developed missiles as part of the agency’s Artemis Moon program.
For example, while SpaceX’s Falcon Heavy rocket doesn’t have as much lift capacity as the SLS rocket, it has the advantage of being already in use, costing about a tenth per flight. Blue Origin and United Launch Alliance are also developing heavy-duty rockets designed to put components of a human landing system into orbit around the moon.
Perhaps most importantly, SpaceX is continuing a flight test campaign of its Starship Launch System, which could make its first orbital flight in the next 12 months. This is a launch vehicle that can potentially outperform the SLS missile, is reusable, and costs a fraction of the price. If SpaceX does manage to get Starship into orbit, there would be little technical justification for continued government funding of the less capable SLS booster, which is replaceable and costs much, much more.
Proponents of the SLS missile are not blind to this. Some believe SpaceX will fail with its Starship program, and indeed numerous technical challenges remain. Others think NASA could find ways to make the SLS missile more competitive, and that’s one point of this study.
However, another reason for the new analysis is to assess whether NASA needs the SLS missile at all as part of the Artemis program. Companies are already planning to bring the lunar lander to the moon with private rockets. The main task for the SLS missile is to launch Orion, with crew, to the moon. Launching the Orion could also be possible with private rockets, or the crew could simply launch on SpaceX’s spaceship, eliminating the need for Orion itself.
Commercial alternatives
While the Biden administration has pledged to continue the Artemis program initiated under President Donald Trump, it has other priorities for the space agency, most notably ramping up Earth science activities to better understand climate change. If the Office of Management and Budget no longer has to spend $ 3 billion annually to “develop” the SLS missile and its ground systems, at least the White House will look to the possibility.
A first step may include delaying or ending work on an upgrade for the SLS missile, sources indicated. After NASA completes the first iteration of the Space Launch System rocket, it plans to upgrade it to “Block 1B,” most of which is an upgraded second stage. This piece of hardware is known as the Exploration Upper Stage. In the FY 2021 Budget Act, Congress provided $ 400 million for the development of this phase.
However, some senior NASA officials want to at least pause work on this upper stage. For them, it is premature to work on an upgraded rocket while the first version of the SLS rocket has not yet been proven, especially as Biden space officials determine that the SLS rocket will only play a limited role in future reconnaissance plans. A source said Biden White House may only want to fly SLS a handful of times, halt work on the Exploration Upper Stage, and plan Artemis’ future around commercial launch vehicles.
However, all of this remains in flux, and the US Congress will have a big say in whatever the future of NASA’s deep space exploration programs holds.