Morocco made headlines as the latest Arab country to normalize relations with Israel, after the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and Sudan. This crucial action will facilitate the resumption of diplomatic ties, encourage “economic and technological” partnerships and allow direct flights between Morocco and Israel. Morocco is also the ancestral home of a million Jews, and more than 50,000 Israelis travel to Morocco every year.
But the deal comes with the recognition of Morocco’s claim of sovereignty over the disputed territory of Western Sahara, essentially endorsing Morocco’s plan of autonomy as the sole framework for negotiating a resolution with the Polisario front. The United States’ decision to fight for Western Sahara marks a radical policy shift towards one of the region’s most persistent conflicts.
Despite fueling some degree of unease within Morocco, the decision to normalize relations with Israel is generally seen as a positive step for its international position, especially in improving relations with Gulf states such as the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain, with the additional strategic gain. of recognition of its claims to Western Sahara.
The monarchy has sought the area as part of its foreign policy for the past four decades and considers it a major diplomatic victory. The surprising endorsement of his claim will nonetheless serve as a test of Morocco’s ability to mandate effective local government in accordance with its advanced regional plan. Ironically, the plan, a cornerstone of a highly pluralistic Morocco, will grant some degree of autonomy to Western Sahara, albeit still under its sovereignty.
The deal comes after a ceasefire that fell apart last month after Morocco sent troops to a UN zone to quell protests and a trade blockade. The Polisario Front, a nationalist movement backed by Algeria that has pursued independence and is claiming the territory, and the Sahrawi Arab Democratic Republic have reacted angrily to these recent developments and likely feel cornered and justified in resuming hostilities. If Algeria, where the Polisario front has bases and camps, intervenes, more unrest could arise.
The Western Sahara dispute arose in 1975 after Spain’s withdrawal, leaving Morocco, Mauritania, and the Polisario Front at odds over the territory. An International Court of Justice opinion that year recognized Morocco’s and Mauritania’s ties, but claimed they did not amount to ownership of Western Sahara. Instead, it favored determination by the Sahrawis. A 1991 deal installed a peace system calling for status to be maintained until a referendum could be held, but that never happened as both sides worked to shift the demographics of the area. Morocco today controls most of the territory.
The Bou Craa mine in Western Sahara is home to one of the world’s largest reserves of phosphate, an essential ingredient in agricultural fertilizers. The production capacity, operated by a subsidiary of a mining company owned by Morocco, is approximately 8 percent of the mining company’s total extractive capacity. Western Sahara also has a lucrative fishery, an important sector that has grown under the control of the central government. It is also believed that there are significant offshore oil and gas reserves that can support the local economy. But south-west Algeria, where the Polisario Front camps are located, is arid and deserted.
As Morocco has attempted to validate its control over Western Sahara, the United States’ decision is a major victory for the country. Despite some inconvenience at home with the alleged rejection of the Palestinian cause, national fervor over Western Sahara overshadows concerns about a deal with Israel and its outcome. The real challenge for Morocco is the integration of Western Sahara.
Is it possible that the Sahrawi culture continues in Morocco? Algeria has supported the Sahrawi cause. But these recent events may provide an opportunity to come up with a plan that will allow Sahrawi society to survive in the context of a pluralistic Morocco. If Western Sahara wants to become part of Morocco, it doesn’t have to resolve itself. The real test will be that Morocco demonstrates that it can delegate governmental tasks and enable local administration of the Western Sahara area that shows its identity and people as part of a Morocco that is diverse and inclusive.
Patricia Karam is Regional Director of the Middle East and North Africa at the International Republican Institute dedicated to democracy.