JAKARTA, Indonesia (AP) – For each rainy season, Lu Lu Aung and other farmers living in an internally displaced person camp in Myanmar’s far northern state of Kachin would return to the village where they had fled and plant crops that would help them to survive. food for the next year.
But this year, in the aftermath of the military coup in February, with the rains not far away, farmers rarely leave their makeshift homes and are afraid to leave their camp. They say it is just too dangerous to risk running into soldiers from the Myanmar military or their affiliated militias.
“We have nowhere to go and nothing to do since the coup,” said Lu Lu Aung. “Every night we hear the sound of jet fighters flying so close above our camp.”
The military’s deadly crackdown on protesters in major central cities such as Yangon and Mandalay has received a lot of attention since the coup that toppled Aung San Suu Kyi’s elected government. But far away, in Myanmar’s border region, Lu Lu Aung and millions of others, who come from Myanmar’s minority ethnic groups, face growing uncertainty and declining security as protracted conflicts between the military and minority guerrilla armies flare up again. .
It’s a situation that came to the fore over the past week when the military launched deadly air strikes against ethnic Karen guerrillas in their homeland on the eastern border, displacing thousands and sending civilians to neighboring Thailand.
Several rebel armies have threatened to join forces if the killing of civilians does not stop, while a group made up of members of the deposed government has put forward the idea of creating a new army of rebel groups. The UN Special Envoy to Myanmar, meanwhile, has warned the country faces the possibility of civil war.
Ethnic minorities make up about 40% of Myanmar’s 52 million inhabitants, but the central government and military leadership have long been dominated by Burma’s ethnic majority. Since independence from Britain in 1948, more than a dozen ethnic groups have sought greater autonomy, some of which have retained their own independent armies.
This has put them at odds with Myanmar’s ultra-nationalist generals, who have long viewed territory – especially those in border areas often rich in natural resources – being surrendered as treason and relentlessly fighting the rebel armies with only occasional ceasefire periods.
The violence has led to allegations of abuse against all parties, including arbitrary taxes on civilians and forced recruitment, and has displaced approximately 239,000 people since 2011, according to the United Nations alone. That doesn’t include the more than 800,000 minority Rohingya people who fled to Bangladesh to escape a military campaign the UN has called ethnic cleansing.
Protests against the coup have taken place in every border state since February, and security forces have responded in the same way as elsewhere with tear gas, rubber bullets and live ammunition. But residents and observers say the post-coup situation in geographically isolated border areas has been exacerbated by increased skirmishes between the military and armed ethnic organizations seeking power and territory.
Lu Lu Aung, from the Kachin ethnic group, said she took part in protests but dropped out because it was now too dangerous. She said Myanmar security forces and affiliated militias recently occupied their old village where they planted crops and no one left the camp because they feared they would be forced to work for the military.
“Our students cannot continue training and it is so difficult for the adults to find a job and make money,” she said.
Humanitarian assistance to civilians in border countries – already under pressure from the pandemic and the inherent difficulties facing external groups in many areas – has also been tough since the coup.
Communications have been paralyzed, banks have closed and security has become increasingly insecure, said the director of a Myanmar-based organization that supports displaced persons who spoke on condition of anonymity for security reasons.
“There is no more humanitarian aid and support,” she said.
In the eastern state of Karen, where thousands of airstrikes have been displaced, there are concerns that the arrival of the rainy season could exacerbate a humanitarian situation already complicated by reports that Thailand has turned many of its civilians back. Thailand has said that those who returned to Myanmar did so voluntarily.
Still, there are parts of the country’s border areas that were hardly affected by the coup.
In Wa State, a region bordering China and Thailand that has its own government, military and ceasefire agreements with Myanmar’s military, online videos show how life goes on, including the rollout of a coronavirus vaccination campaign.
Near Bangladesh in the coastal state of Rakhine, from where the Rohingya were displaced and where violent clashes with the Arakan Army group have been going on for years, the junta removed the group from its terrorist groups list last month, adding to the gives hope that hostilities will abate. The Arakan army, unlike a number of other armed groups, did not criticize the coup.
However, the group has since released a statement declaring its right to defend its territory and civilians from military attacks, leading some to fear a new escalation of fighting.
Other armed groups have made similar statements. Some, like the Karen National Union, have offered protection to civilians who marched in protests against the coup.
Such actions have contributed to calls for a “federal army” to bring together armed ethnic groups from across the country. But analysts say such a vision would be difficult to achieve due to logistical challenges and political disagreements between the groups.
“These groups are not in a position to provide the support against the Myanmar military that is needed in urban centers with large populations, or really far beyond their own regions,” said Ronan Lee, a visiting scientist to the Queen. Mary University of London’s International State Crime Initiative.
Despite uncertainty about what’s to come, some minority activists say they have been encouraged since the coup by increased attention to the role that ethnic groups may play in Myanmar’s future. They also say there seems to be more understanding – at least among anti-coup protesters – of the struggles minorities have faced for so long.
“If there is a silver lining in all of this, it is,” said an activist, speaking on condition of anonymity for fear of their safety.