The analyst appreciates El Salvador’s political crossroads and Washington’s clear concern about the country’s authoritarian course. Reporting threats to the rule of law, monitoring democratic institutions and fighting corruption will be central to this.
The president of the influential Inter-American Dialogue analysis center, Michael Shifter, analyzes the dangerous spiral of authoritarianism that El Salvador has entered, with an authoritarian government dominated in form and content by the figure of President Nayib Bukele.
As head of this think tank that measures the region’s pulse, Shifter highlights the clear messages that President Joe Biden’s government and much of the federal legislature, Democrats and some Republicans alike, have sent to Bukele’s government. And there is no doubt that the equipment of US diplomacy is beginning to move pieces for work in Central America’s well-known Northern Triangle, a region that remains a priority, but under clearer ground rules.
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This expert, who is also a professor in the foreign service career at the prestigious Georgetown University in Washington, where he teaches Latin American politics, is an authorized voice to analyze the region’s problems. Michael Shifter speaks to El Diario de Hoy about the Salvadoran panorama from Washington.
What can be said of El Salvador right now in Washington, now that the new political scenario is already consolidated and when the interests for the region have been revealed?
The region in general is going through a difficult time. It was difficult before the pandemic, but it got much worse with the arrival of Covid-19; As for El Salvador, there appears to be growing concern about President Nayib Bukele’s government. While it is true that his level of support from people in the country is remarkable, what began with some concern about his more authoritarian leanings has grown tremendously and is now a position shared by Democrats as well as many Republicans in Washington.
At 9F, President Nayib Bukele sat in the Chair of the Assembly President, played the gong and opened the plenary session. / Photo EDH archive
Are there any trigger points to outline this authority figure?
The events of February 9, 2020, with the arrival of the Legislative Assembly with the military, had a major impact on the perception that was already beginning to be about Bukele. Then we have seen the attacks on the independent media, which show little tolerance in a climate of democratic culture. Perception in the United States has been more concerned about the authoritarian tendencies of the Bukele government.
Before Bukele won the presidential election, you pointed out that there were signs of erosion of the duality in El Salvador and that it needed to be addressed in relation to other processes in the region. Is there a substantial difference between Bukele and other Latin American democracies that have shaken the party system?
We need to define a more nuanced analysis of the arguments of some analysts, whom I think Bukele has defended himself by saying that what is happening in El Salvador should not be confused with other countries such as Nicaragua, Venezuela and Cuba, which have dictatorships and El Salvador. Salvador is not a dictatorship today, that’s true; however, their undemocratic behavior and against the norms and principles of the rule of law show disturbing signs; During the entire time that ARENA and the FMLN were in power, there were never signs like the ones we’ve seen at Bukele, despite many tensions and conflicts.
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On February 28, the question will be answered whether El Salvador will have an independent meeting or a meeting controlled by the executive branch. How do you think President Joe Biden’s administration will adapt to this new scenario?
We will have to wait and see what happens with the elections, but I think the Biden administration has sent very clear messages regarding Bukele: the decision not to receive him when he came to Washington speaks volumes. It will be a challenge to redefine the relationship with El Salvador, it is obviously an important country for Biden’s policies in the region, but it will also be very clear that the issues of democracy, human rights, free press and anti-corruption play a role . was already on the agenda, having been absent for the past four years, with Donald Trump.
Joe Biden, President of the United States. Photo / AFP
What can we expect from Biden’s commitment to the Northern Triangle, knowing that these three countries are currently going through different situations, especially in terms of democracy?
It is a difficult region to stratify; However, President Biden has a clear commitment to Central America’s Northern Triangle, something he clearly showed when he was vice president. We know how much you care about what’s going on there. He will try to improve the conditions that give rise to irregular migration to the United States, but it will not be easy as economic and violent conditions are difficult across the region; they will need to make commitments and deep engagement with the region. No one doubts it will take a long time, even with that $ 4 billion dollars to do it.
How much leeway does the US government have to work in the region, given that the previous administration only invested a lot in the immigration issue?
The United States is very important to Central America. The countries facing enormous challenges can cooperate more with the United States; something that could improve conditions. In that sense, the United States does have a margin of action as the countries want cooperation, but that will show up with an efficiency and determination to ignore authoritarian governments, as we have not seen before, and signs such as not receiving President Bukele here and a few comments about Honduras, it is a firm position trying to influence the behavior of leaders and those governments.
Except that the region is almost tied to the power of the north?
The United States has ample margins and resources, and the region is so attached to the United States in all economic, cultural and migratory terms, in every way, there’s no getting around it, this country is big and strong, and the Central American countries are small and weak relative.
And the influence of China, seen as a shadow over the region?
I believe that China’s role is a permanent presence, first in South America and now also in North America, and I believe this presence should be an incentive for the United States to improve cooperation with countries and compete with China, because each country offers different things in different areas. Therefore, partners in the region must be mobilized to provide a more attractive alternative than China.
How strong do you see the private sector in the current situation in El Salvador?
The private sector in El Salvador plays a fundamental role; It must be very clear about the importance of the social agenda, of improving the health system, education and other services that are not working properly; Obviously, having a more open and democratic government is beneficial for the private sector as it creates conditions for stability, authoritarian governments create a lot of divisions and shocks, which is not good for the private sector. A social pact in which the private sector plays a fundamental role must be sought in El Salvador and other countries.
Is there an estimate of the impact of the pandemic on the weakening of democracy in the region, or is there still a blame on this point?
There are governments that have used the pandemic as a pretext to control power, and it is always helpful for governments to call for an emergency as it allows for more authoritarian specific measures to deal with that emergency; Some of which has been, the pandemic has been a factor in the deterioration of conditions in the region and it has also led to social discontent.