The Mets had a Trevor Bauer budget. Now, back to the original plan.
Steve Cohen and Sandy Alderson had previously said they wanted to keep payroll under the $ 210 million threshold for luxury taxes off-season. But in Bauer they saw opportunities – a high-end talent at a time when few teams were willingly involved at the top of the market. They theorized that if Bauer were his 2020 NL Cy Young release, it would change the Mets’ trajectory from contender to something more immediate.
So the Mets made the biggest bid: three years for $ 105 million. The $ 35 million mean annual value would have projected them above the tax threshold before tackling any other off-season or budgeting for trade deadline issues. Bauer took a total of $ 3 million less from the Dodgers to win: his hometown, a more stable franchise, more confident winner, and cutting-edge pitching shop.
Without Bauer, the Mets return to their previous concept. So when you think about how the Mets could spend a total of $ 105 million, $ 40 million this year (which would have been Bauer’s Mets salary in 2021) or cross the threshold, that’s unlikely. They have 22 players who currently have Major League contracts for $ 162 million. Complete the roster, add the benefits formula, and put money aside for in-season call-ups and trades, and the Mets may have $ 25 million to go before they cross the threshold. A well-known aside, the Mets, with Cohen’s money, shouldn’t treat the threshold as a de facto salary cap. If they need to improve the team within reason, they should.
Some thoughts on where the team should go:
1. Talk to Jacob deGrom. It is understood around the Mets that deGrom may not be too happy with his contract and that the Mets were offering more to someone in Bauer who had never done anything for them. DeGrom was signed under bizarre circumstances. He was represented for a long time by Brodie Van Wagenen, who became Mets GM after the 2018 season. Van Wagenen had to withdraw from the negotiations by line, but if you are deGrom, you know that Van Wagenen knew what it took to close a deal. In spring training 2019, deGrom signed for $ 137.5 million for five years. But nearly 40 percent were delayed for 15 years, causing its current value to drop dramatically.
The Mets don’t owe deGrom any more. Had he been injured, the Mets would have paid every dollar. And this was not the Cohen / Alderson government that signed it. But it is this administration that has talked to Bauer.
DeGrom can unsubscribe after next season. The Mets can then handle it. But do they want to risk bidding against the Dodgers, Yankees, for example, and are about to have tons of available cash Giants plus others? They now have exclusivity to keep the second best pitcher in their history in the fold and happy.
If deGrom doesn’t opt out, his contract still has four years at $ 130 million left – lowered by the suspensions, however. What about Mets’ offer to tear that up and make a $ 144 million four-year grace-free pact with a fifth-year option for $ 36 million or an $ 8 million buyout? The total guarantee of $ 152 million is worth an average of $ 38 million, pushing deGrom past Gerrit Cole’s $ 36 million for its highest average ever. Can deGrom try to hunt more? He could, but first it comes with good pitching at the ages of 33 and 34. The offer is to lose the procrastination and become the highest paid player now.
Try a cost neutral offer to the Brewers for Lorenzo Cain. The Mets talk to free agent Jackie Bradley Jr. about midfield. He is a winning player who defends the elite. But the question in 2021 remains: if there isn’t a NL DH, how would the Mets find enough at-bat for Bradley, Brandon Nimmo, Pete Alonso and Dom Smith between center, left and first?
The same would be true if you replace Bradley with Cain. Here come the buts: The Mets should provide Jeurys Familia, Dellin Betances, Brad Brach, and a good-but-not-elite prospect (think someone like Franklyn Kilome). Familia, Betances and Brach count $ 17.375 million for the 2021 tax return, Cain $ 17 million. Doing it this way will give the Mets more budget for 2021 to even add a Trevor Rosenthal to a bullpen with Edwin Diaz, Miguel Castro, Aaron Loup, Seth Lugo and Trevor May, for example.
Would the little brewers do this to escape Cain’s $ 18 million salary in 2022, when he turns 36? It doesn’t hurt to ask. Cain’s right bat (Bradley is a left), age and having signed out for most of last season would make it easier to start him in 110-120 games for example and rotate the other bats when there is no DH , yet his brilliant playing lets defense when he doesn’t start.
Take a novice rotational guess. The Mets improved on this off-season – especially in the middle, especially with Francisco Lindor. But the Braves are probably still better in a stacked NL East and the Dodgers are certainly better overall in NL. The Mets would have to figure out what, if it works, would close the gap.
I have no illusions about James Paxton. He will not stay healthy. He’s all at risk. But unlike any other starter on the market, especially someone who might be snapping a one-year deal, the lefty has the best. Can you dream of a scenario where Paxton can take you to June for Noah Syndergaard’s return, and both are healthy for September / October to join deGrom, Carlos Carrasco and Marcus Stroman? It’s a spin that could win any short run.
4. A no for Justin Turner. With Bauer, the Dodgers projects a by far the highest payroll at $ 237 million. Maybe they’ve turned off the water now. That would take the most obvious landing spot for Turner out of play. It would give Alderson a chance to reverse perhaps his worst first-term move – not tendering Turner after the 2013 season. Turner followed with seven Borderline Hall-of-Fame seasons with the Dodgers.
But he will play at 36 next year and will almost certainly take a multi-year deal to land (remember, Robinson Cano’s salary will return for 2022-23 to further tax the payroll). The Mets shouldn’t risk letting him go at the wrong time and bring him back at the wrong time. JD Davis is the third baseman on paper. However, I am curious if Luis Guillorme has what Gio Urshela has to offer. No third basic power is possible with him. But he has great hands on both sides of the ball that I would like to see more of a chance, especially since third base is a position that should have available trade candidates in the season if the Mets have to sort this out on the spot.