Merkel’s successor will restore relations with Washington

FRANKFURT – “The times when we could fully rely on others – are somewhat over.”

Those were the words of German Chancellor Angela Merkel after a difficult G-7 and NATO meeting with President Donald Trump in 2017. That phrase marked a departure from her usual sentiment towards the transatlantic relationship and was widely seen as a turning point.

Despite a flurry of startling statements from the Trump administration, Merkel preferred to keep her calm for the next few years, likely in anticipation of a new president in 2020.

They and the German establishment got what they wanted: In Joe Biden, there is a new American leader with a clear multilateral and pro-European agenda.

But while relationships are now much kinder on the surface, some central issues remain.

“The big issues like Nord Stream 2 and NATO’s spending target of 2% of GDP will remain controversial,” said Andreas Dombret, a member of the board of directors of the Atlantik Brücke, a nonprofit organization that manages German-US relations. promotes. a telephone interview with CNBC. Nord Stream 2 is the Russian-led gas pipeline that it is hoped will provide Europe with a sustainable energy supply.

“There is no immediate green light for the new US administration, especially when it comes to a free trade agreement, which is probably not within reach,” added Dombret.

Predicting the future of German-US relations is not an easy task as there are many factors involved in the mix. For example, it appears that the US is demanding a clear commitment to prioritize relations with the White House over those with China and Russia.

“We must oppose the economic abuses and coercion of the Chinese government that are undermining the foundations of the international economic system,” President Joe Biden said in his speech at the Munich Security Conference in February.

“The Kremlin is attacking our democracies and arms corruption to try to undermine our governance system,” he added in another section of this speech.

Germany has typically put its own economic interests above all else when it comes to its relationship with Beijing. But that is about to change.

“There is a lot of pressure to change attitudes towards China, which is building from Germany, parties like the Greens, parts of the (Merkel) CDU want a tougher line,” said Noah Barkin, an editor-in-chief at Rhodium Group’s China . practice based in Berlin.

When it comes to Russia, things are more difficult, especially thanks to the controversial Nord Stream 2 pipeline, which enjoys widespread support in Germany. The Russia problem also ties in neatly with the issue of NATO spending. Critics say Germany can’t ask for NATO support but then won’t pay its fair share of the budget, while also funding Russia through the gas pipeline and expecting the full shield from the US if things go wrong.

The Greens, a potential kingmaker in Berlin with federal elections in September, have a different view that is also recognized in the U.S. The Green Party, founded in 1980 with a clear focus on the peace movement and saving the environment, has advocated departure. NATO and withdraw from military action. The official party line has since changed, but the party leadership is still struggling to get their members fully behind them.

Germany and other countries have been criticized for not contributing enough to their defense budgets, with NATO’s target of 2% of GDP.

“I think the 2% orientation when it comes to NATO spending is an absurd debate,” said Annalena Baerbock, one of the Green Party’s candidates for chancellor and a rising star on the political scene, in an interview with the newspaper Die Zeit.

The direction of transatlantic policy will depend on the composition of the coalition government when Merkel steps down and Germany votes in a new leader later this year. If her CDU party eventually rules over the Liberal party, the FDP, things will likely go smoothly as both have a strong commitment to the US.

However, if the CDU works with the Greens, things get more complicated, not least because of NATO spending. In the case of a so-called Jamaica coalition of the CDU, the FDP and the Greens, the latter two will have major counterweights in parliament to water down any legislation it pushes for.