Merkel Bloc leads to risky decision about candidate chancellor

Photographer: Liesa Johannssen-Koppitz / Bloomberg

Angela Merkel’s conservative bloc is poised to pick the winner in a two-man showdown over his candidate to succeed her as German chancellor.

The Christian Democratic Union and its smaller Bavarian sister party, the Christian Social Union, are holding separate leadership meetings on Monday. They will help determine whether the match is resolved amicably or results in a disputed nomination, which would be unusual for an alliance supporting German political stability.

CSU head and Bavarian state prime minister Markus Soeder joined the race on Sunday as rival to Armin Laschet – the CDU chairman and prime minister of North Rhine-Westphalia – in a heated contest that could be settled within days.

The winner has a good chance of taking over from Merkel after stepping aside after the national elections in September. They would inherit a slew of challenges, ranging from dealing with the fallout from the coronavirus pandemic and shaping Germany’s relations with its European and NATO partners, to addressing the threats from China and Russia.

In a first step, the national leaders of the CDU in Berlin are likely to support Laschet’s candidacy. The response from the CSU – possibly a Soeder approval – comes from Munich a few hours later. If Merkel’s party formally anoints a candidate and the Bavarian party refuses to support that person, the two parties’ 245-member joint parliamentary caucus could have the final say as early as Tuesday.

“It is clear that the CDU leadership is behind its chairman,” said Tobias Hans, Saarland’s prime minister, in Berlin on Monday when he arrived for the meeting.

CDU-CSU caucus leader Ralph Brinkhaus said in an interview with ARD television that he wants a decision made this week so that the Conservative bloc can continue its election campaign.

Peter Altmaier, the CDU economy minister and a close ally of Merkel, suggested the process could take a little longer, saying he hoped for a “really good solution in the next eight to 10 days”.

“We want to make a quick decision because there are so many problems we need to solve, from the coronavirus to the state of the world economy,” Altmaier told broadcaster n-tv.

If the decision goes to the caucus, Soeder would be in favor as he is more popular with voters than Laschet and CDU-CSU lawmakers have seen the bloc’s poll numbers decline in recent weeks as Covid-19 made a resurgence .

Tight Race

The German conservatives are under pressure to keep their lead

Source: Forsa

Soeder played polls suggesting he is more popular than his opponent, saying it is important that the Conservative candidate enjoys wide support from party members and the general public.

Merkel, 66, will not run for another term and her departure has opened the field for who will lead Europe’s largest economy. She has not taken a side in the race, even though Laschet is on her side.

“Our goal at this point, with a chancellor leaving office, is to promote as much unity as possible between the CDU and CSU,” Laschet told reporters. ‘There is a lot at stake. Europe is looking at how Germany develops. “

Traditionally, the CDU and the CSU draft a joint candidate for chancellor. Soeder’s entry is a sign of a competition between two sister parties whose alliance has been a foundation of German politics since the end of World War II.

Advantage Soeder

The Prime Minister of Bavaria has emerged as the clear favorite to succeed Merkel

Source: Forsa

While Merkel and Soeder collided during the refugee crisis in Germany in 2015, he has supported her push for restrictions during the Covid-19 pandemic. Laschet, meanwhile, has been criticized by Merkel for a lax response in his home state.

“We have determined that we are both suitable and that we are both ready,” Soeder told reporters after Sunday’s meeting. “Whatever the decision turns out to be, we will personally work very well together.”

On Sunday, both candidates expressed support for a swift approval of Merkel’s planned changes to Germany’s infectious diseases law, which would shift certain powers from the states to the federal government. Other regional leaders have made changes to the bill.

According to national polls, support for the CDU-CSU is between 26% and 28%, compared to nearly 33% of the vote in the last elections in 2017. The Social Democrats, Merkel’s coalition partner at the national level, have also fallen into decline. The Green party, which got 8.9% last time, is polling as high as 23%, increasing the likelihood that it will become part of the next government.

While approval searches favor Soeder over Laschet, only two candidates from socially conservative Bavaria have run for chancellor since 1980 and have lost both.

– With the help of Chris Reiter

Updates with comments from Hans, Brinkhaus, Altmaier from sixth paragraph