Saturday morning reports multiple sources suggested the Detroit Lions had seven or eight offers on the table for a Matthew Stafford deal, all of which included a first-round pick. By the time the day was over, the Lions had a much more lucrative deal: two first round tips, third round pick and Jared Goff. They jumped on the deal and the rest was history.
But what caused such a massive spike in compensation for Detroit? What happened between Saturday morning and around 10 p.m. ET when the deal was finally made with the Los Angeles Rams?
On Monday, a few columns about the NFL provided some clarity. First, Pro Football Talk’s Peter King had a big story on the trade, and had eye-popping information on how Detroit decided on the Rams’ offering, and details on what else was out there.
King suggests that Jared Goff was an essential part of the trade, even part of the Rams’ original bid: Goff + their third round pick (89th overall). He confirmed some other reports that the Lions see Goff not just as a bridge quarterback, but as the potential starter for the future.
As director of the college scouting for the Rams when Goff was selected in 2016, Holmes preferred him in the Rams draft room – and still does, I’m told. I also heard that Campbell liked Goff not only as a quarterback on the bridge, but also as the quarterback of the future.
Then comes this bomb: per king, the lions had an offer with two first round picks on the table. King does not name the team, however.
Which leads us to the other detailed trading story, this one from Albert Breer of MMQB. Breer tells an interesting story of how Matthew Stafford and Sean McVay closed the night by personally toasting each other as the two were miraculously together in Los Cabos, Mexico at the time – along with a handful of other NFL players.
But more notable to Lions fans, Breer breaks down some of the exact offerings the Lions had on the table. Here’s what he notes about nine different teams interested in Stafford:
- Rams’ original offer was a 2022 first round, Goff, and an additional pick
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Washington Football Team offered their first round pick (19th overall) + a third rounder
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Carolina Panthers offered their first round (8th overall) + a later pick
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Indianapolis Colts offered packs of picks and players, but never their first round (21st)
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San Francisco 49ers never made an official offer, but Breer believes the 12th overall pick would not be on the table
- Broncos discussed a pick swap that equates to a late first round.
- Patriots and Bears have both “checked in”. New England offered a second round pick and a player
- Jets are also “checked in”. As the Lions approached Saturday, talks did not progress very far
There are a few things to look through here. First, if Breer’s reporting is accurate, it doesn’t look like the Lions really had eight teams with a first-round pick on the table. It was more likely in the neighborhood of four or five.
Second, there doesn’t seem to be an agreement between Breer and King on this mystery of two first-round pick offers from another team. It’s possible that the team was the Chicago Bears, which would explain why the Lions turned it down. However, the Bears just got a small, passing mention in Breer’s story, so even that seems unlikely.
Finally, based on Breer’s reporting, the best bid on the table appears to be that the Lions didn’t pick the Panthers’ eighth overall pick plus more. As noted in Breer’s story, the eighth overall pick is essentially as valuable as two 26th overall picks, according to the famous Jimmy Johnson draft pick trade charts. But some argue that getting a choice today is worth more than getting a choice down the line. So the addition of Goff and a third round pick almost certainly sealed the deal for the Rams.
Obviously, with stories like this, not everything is going to be 100 percent accurate. Teams will spread information to make themselves look better or, in some cases, to make other teams look worse. Overall, even with all this information out there, it’s hard not to look at the deal the Lions got as quite lucrative.