WASHINGTON (CNN) – An influential COVID-19 model has predicted the total number of US deaths from the virus by Aug. 1, a number that researchers say will be affected by the number of Americans who continue to wear masks while vaccinations continue.
A model from the University of Washington Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation’s (IHME) predicts that approximately 618,523 people will have died from the coronavirus in the US by Aug. 1. If 95% of the US population were to wear masks, the projection would drop to 604,413 deaths.
In the worst-case scenario, in which fully vaccinated people revert to pre-pandemic mobility levels, the forecast grows to 697,573, the IHME predicted. The projection plays a role in the degree of vaccine distribution and the associated distribution of more transmissible variants.
All 50 states are on track to open vaccines to Americans 16 and older starting April 19. While the increased vaccinations are an important step in defeating the virus, health experts warn the country is in a race against variants such as the B.1.1.7. first identified in the UK, which have the potential to cause another rise in the number of cases.
The US reported at least 80,157 new cases on Friday, the third day in a row and the fourth day of the past week with at least 75,000 or more cases, according to Johns Hopkins University. In total, according to the figures, more than 561,000 people have died from the corona virus to date.
Vaccines are an effective tool against virus spread, but they are not perfect and should be supplemented with precautions such as wearing masks and avoiding indoor gatherings, said Dr. Anthony Fauci.
“I don’t think – even if I got vaccinated – I would go to a crowded, covered place where people don’t wear masks,” the director of the National Institute for Allergy and Infectious Diseases told Business Insider.
Pfizer wants to expand vaccinations to Americans from the age of 12
To date, the youngest Americans to qualify for the vaccines are 16.
But on Friday, the acting commissioner of the Food and Drug Administration, Dr. Janet Woodcock, that the agency will “as soon as possible” review Pfizer’s request to extend the emergency use authorization of the drug manufacturer’s COVID-19 vaccine to people 12-15 years old.
“While the FDA cannot predict how long our review of the data and information will take, we will review the request as soon as possible using our rigorous and evidence-based approach,” Woodcock said on Twitter.
Dr. Syra Madad, senior director of the System-wide Special Pathogens Program at Health + Hospitals in New York City, told CNN on Saturday that making the vaccine available to the 12 to 15-year-old age group excited her as a parent.
“We should all be very hopeful,” said Madad, a fellow at the Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs at Harvard Kennedy School. “This is very welcome news. We know that children are vulnerable to infections and hospitalizations … They are definitely increasing in cases.”
The pharmaceutical company said it will seek similar statements from other authorities around the world in the coming days.
“These requests are based on data from the pivotal phase 3 study in adolescents 12 to 15 years of age with or without prior evidence of SARS-CoV-2 infection, which demonstrated 100 percent efficacy and robust antibody response after vaccination with the COVID-19. Vaccine, ”Pfizer said in a statement.
COVID-19 cases and hospital admissions are on the rise, CDC director says
Meanwhile, COVID-19 cases and hospitalizations are on the rise – especially for younger people – while the number of deaths is declining, said Dr. Rochelle Walensky, director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, in a White House briefing on Friday.
Rises in cases and emergency room visits are seen in younger adults, many of whom have not been vaccinated, she said.
Those ages 18 to 25, 26 to 54, and 55 to 64 are getting an increasing number of emergency room visits, she said, while people ages 65 and older are getting decreasing visits, “likely demonstrating the significant impact of vaccination in the protection against diseases requiring hospitalization. “
Walensky said that while these are national statistics, the trends are greater in some parts of the country.
With the spread of the more transmissible B.1.1.7 variant and the lower percentage of younger people vaccinated, the surge that experts fear could have a major impact on younger Americans.
“We have to think of the B.1.1.7 variant as an almost brand new virus,” said Dr. Peter Hotez, dean of the National School of Tropical Medicine at Baylor College of Medicine earlier this week. “It behaves differently from anything we’ve seen before, in terms of portability, in terms of youth, so we have to take this very seriously.”
Concerns about side effects
In Colorado, following reports of side effects, three drive-up vaccination sites will stop offering the Johnson & Johnson vaccine on Saturday.
The sites are Dick’s Sporting Goods Park in Commerce City, Broadmoor World Arena in Colorado Springs and Colorado State Fairgrounds in Pueblo, according to a Centura Health press release.
The health network reiterated CDC guidelines that the Johnson & Johnson vaccine is safe and effective, but said the decision was made because of the nationwide shortage of the vaccine and cases of side effects that occurred at a vaccination event at Dick’s Sporting Goods Park earlier this week.
The vaccination site of Dick’s Sporting Goods Park had to be closed early Wednesday after at least 11 of the more than 1,700 people who received the Johnson & Johnson vaccine experienced side effects.
However, officials in Wake County, North Carolina, plan to resume administration of the Johnson & Johnson vaccine on Monday as soon as possible, following a hiatus from Thursday when 18 people in the PNC Arena experienced “mild to severe reactions immediately.” after their vaccinations.
The decision comes “after an in-depth internal review that further supports the findings of the CDC and the NC Department of Health & Human Services. The findings are consistent with those of other similar events across the country, indicating no issues. “, he said. in a statement.
The CDC said in a statement to CNN that it is aware of the various incidents involving the J&J vaccines that have been reported in Iowa, Colorado, Georgia and North Carolina.
At this point, the CDC and FDA “are not recommending health departments to stop administering many COVID-19 vaccines,” the statement said. “CDC has conducted vaccine batch analyzes and has found no cause for concern.”
Madad told CNN on Saturday that the side effects are “consistent with side effects we normally see after vaccination.”
“Right now, the benefits certainly outweigh the risks, but hopefully more information will reach the general public,” she said.
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