Nicolas Maduro, the President of Venezuela, and Cilia Flores, the First Lady of Venezuela, will arrive at the National Assembly in Caracas on January 12, 2021.
Photographer: Carlos Becerra / Bloomberg
Photographer: Carlos Becerra / Bloomberg
Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, who has long been derided as a bumbling seat heater, emerges as a ruthless strongman – flexing US pressure, purging rivals, empowering his son, wife and trusted aides, and making dollars flow to keep his battered economy is collapsing.
As a result, the man believed to be the pale face of Chavismo – the movement named after its magnetic predecessor, Hugo Chavez – is now the rugged head of what is increasingly called Madurismo.
“Maduro has been underestimated, including within Chavismo, and has managed to surprise and conquer his enemies inside and out,” said Caracas political analyst Dimitris Pantoulas. “He has placed trusted people in the most influential positions and replaced those who could challenge his power.”
Barring outside intervention, an increasingly remote possibility, Maduro is likely to remain at the helm in Venezuela for the foreseeable future. As he goes to bed, the nature of Madurismo becomes more and more apparent. A United Nations Last September’s report referred to extrajudicial killings and arbitrary detentions, accusing the regime of “crimes against humanity” – an indictment the government rejected.
After falsified elections in December, Maduro tore the national congress – and the last democratic body – away from US-backed opposition leader Juan Guaido and named right-hand man Jorge Rodriguez his new leader. Son, Nicolas Jr., and wife Cilia Flores have both secured a place as legislators.
As Venezuela’s economy contracted for the seventh year in a row in 2020, the socialist leader promoted unofficial dollarization and loosened his grip on the private sector. He let in over $ 2 billion, some in the form of budding ones luxury dollar economy, and others in remittances of the 5 million that have fled the country, allowing him to move in a US embargo on his oil and a blockade of his country’s assets abroad.
Low approval ratings
He has done all of this with approval rates of less than 15%. His opponents are quickly losing steam, with street demonstrations ebbing away despite the collapse of basic goods and services in a country once among the richest in the world. Oil exports are steadily rising again, at an all-time low.
Allies like Vice President Delcy Rodriguez, Jorge’s sister, rise while challengers including Diosdado Cabello are sidelined.
Cabello, a retired Army lieutenant and former vice president who joined Chavez in a failed coup in 1992, led the all-powerful constituent assembly until Maduro ordered dissolution last year. Cabello is now left with the largely symbolic role of the Socialist Party’s second-in-command and its organizer in the Congress. Cabello did not respond to a request for comment.
In the meantime, Nicolas Jr. in charge of the party’s junior group, according to two sources with direct knowledge of the case. Vice President Rodriguez has also been appointed Secretary of the Treasury, a rare dual role.
Sidelined
Others close to Chavez, such as former Education Minister Elias Jaua, have seen their careers thwarted. Jaua was walled in after proposing more democratic methods of decision-making and electing officials within the party, according to three people with knowledge of the matter. He is now a college professor. He did not respond to a request for comment.
Maduro is also said to have forcibly displaced Major General Miguel Rodriguez Torres, former Justice Minister and chief of Chavez’s intelligence police. He had him imprisoned in 2018, accused by a military court of treason and incitement to rebellion after criticizing the government and establishing a rival party with Chavista roots, members of his party said. He is still in prison in Fuerte Tiuna, the country’s military headquarters.
Reigning party lawmaker Francisco Torrealba, who met Maduro while both worked on public transportation in the early 1990s, acknowledges that many were skeptical of Maduro after Chavez’s death eight years ago. “Today,” he said, “no one doubts the great skills and political wisdom that the president has been able to develop.”
Maduro has retained key military allies, including Defense Secretary Vladimir Padrino, the oldest official in his role.
“The military structure will always lean towards whoever controls the majority of the centers of power,” said Javier Biardeau, a sociologist and professor at the Central University of Venezuela.
Under Maduro, military leaders have secured significant government contracts and mining concessions, as well as control of ports and the state oil company. Most recently, they took over gas stations across the country when US sanctions run the country, which has the world’s largest oil reserves, running out of gas, leading to endless queues where officers view drivers’ credentials at the pumps.
Foreign donors
Maduro’s foreign lenders, including China, Iran and Russia, continue to play a key role: helping sell millions of barrels of manipulated Venezuelan heavy crude under disguise, ship much-needed fuel and goods in exchange for gold, and even agree to ship millions of Sputnik V shots to immunize the nation.
While Guaido retains some global support, the opposition remains divided and devoid of ideas, weakening its position as the confrontation with Maduro continues and as more opposition politicians are forced into exile, imprisoned, or legally sidelined.
While previous attempts to negotiate a political end to the crisis have failed, some of the opposition is hoping to resume talks ahead of municipal and state elections this year.
Political change in the US could also help Maduro. Donald Trump called Venezuela and its alliance with Cuba and Nicaragua under pressure. President Joe Biden is expected to seek shelter in Cuba. And while his top employees have made it clear that they see Maduro as a dictator, they have also expressed interest in changing some of the sanctions.