SALT LAKE CITY – For doctors like Dr. Mark Briesacher, the COVID-19 trends of the past two months have been a welcome sight.
According to data from the Utah Department of Health, the seven-day average of new COVID-19 cases in Utah is down 87% since the last peak on Jan. 9. The current average is now 419 new cases per day, the lowest number in more than six months.
As cases have declined, so has the pressure that the disease has placed on hospitals. On Friday, 130 people were hospitalized for COVID-19, the fewest COVID-19 hospitalizations since mid-September.
More serious cases have also gone down: 74% of the state referral center ICs were full, which is a tick below the alert threshold. Statewide ICUs were also 69% full, which is also below the threshold, data from the state health service shows.
The data also shows that both referral center ICUs and statewide ICUs reached 10% of ICU capacity this week as a result of COVID-19, also for the first time since mid-September. Both reached 44% and 45% on Jan. 15.
In addition, the COVID-19 vaccine was opened up to all Utahns 16 and above, which will drastically change the number of Utahns vaccinated in the coming weeks.
“We’re excited about the trends we’re seeing, especially because it means so much to patients and families,” said Briesacher, chief physician executive at Intermountain Healthcare. “Fewer people in the hospital, fewer people who become seriously ill. This is just great to see.”
While there is good news about the COVID-19 trends, Briesacher said there is still a risk of celebrating the end of the pandemic too soon. That’s why he and other public health experts are cautiously optimistic on the way to spring break at school and as the statewide mask mandate technically expires on April 10.
For one thing, more people need to be vaccinated and it is impossible to vaccinate at least 70% of the estimated adult population in one week. Briesacher also pointed out that while cases have decreased significantly in recent weeks, they are still relatively high with 400 to 500 new cases being reported every weekday.
I have a lot of empathy for the fact that this disease continues to be such a burden to our communities and to individuals and families. We owe it to them to stay vigilant and keep moving forward the right way until we can really tamp this thing down.
–Dr. Mark Briesacher, chief arts executive at Intermountain Healthcare
Dr. Angela Dunn, the state’s epidemiologist, has also pointed out in recent weeks that the number of new cases was leveling off.
“Those are still many new cases,” said Briesacher during a question and answer session on Friday. “We still have a transmission speed in that range of 7% to 8%, so we need to remain vigilant about infection control, especially within healthcare facilities.”
He likened the pandemic to a marathon – it’s okay to celebrate victories along the way, but the race isn’t over yet. The point is that the ultimate goal is not to bring the number of COVID-19 infections back to the level it was six months ago, but to stop as many new cases, serious cases and deaths as possible.
“I think it’s good for a community, especially our communities, to feel good about how we’ve responded,” he said. Let’s stay vigilant. Let’s not lose our edge; let’s not forget how serious this is. Utahns are still dying from COVID-19, and if you compare it to what we’ve been through, you can mistakenly conclude that, boy, things are OK because they are so much better.
“But if you focus on the absolute number … that’s people and families that are being hit so hard,” he continued. “I have a lot of empathy for the fact that this disease continues to be such a burden to our communities and to individuals and to families. We owe it to them to remain vigilant and move forward in the right way until we do this. really can tackle it. thing down. “
There are a few potential hurdles between now and achieving herd immunity against COVID-19 that Briesacher addressed on Friday.
One is that spring break has also begun or is in the offing at many schools in Utah this weekend. Briesacher recommended that families planning to travel during recess to focus on activities that are “ more focused on the outdoors, ” such as small-group camping.
“We’ve all seen the photos of the beaches in Florida and I know we won’t be like that,” he said. “But there’s a risk like there was over the Thanksgiving holiday. You saw the great response from the community coming together and really softening the possible results that could have come from that Thanksgiving holiday.”
The current statewide mandate also expires April 10 after government Spencer Cox signed a bill passed in the legislature this week to set that date. It’s worth noting that it will remain in place for schools and can also continue to exist for businesses that decide to need masks.
Companies like Harmons, Smith’s and Target have all said they will continue to meet their requirements beyond that date. Intermountain Healthcare also announced that it will require employees and patients to wear masks in its facilities even after April 10.
Briesacher said he sees April 10 as the start of the “personal health mandate,” where individuals can make the decisions themselves to continue wearing masks and to socially distance themselves in public places where possible to avoid the possibility of a new rise in cases. appearance.
He added that Intermountain and other public health experts will continue to monitor the situation in case there is another increase in the number of cases and as the future of COVID-19 takes shape after the pandemic.