Russia has been conducting last-minute military exercises near commercial shipping lanes in the Black Sea that threaten to strangle Ukraine’s economy, according to an internal document from Ukraine’s defense ministry assessed by Axios.
Why it mattersWith the world’s eyes on the massive troop build-up in Eastern Ukraine, the leaked memo shows that Russian troops are escalating their presence on all sides of the Ukrainian border.
Zoom in: On Friday, Russia announced that it plans to block foreign ships in parts of the Black Sea from military exercises through October, an escalation that a Foreign Ministry spokesman condemned as an example of Moscow’s “ongoing campaign to overcome Ukraine. to undermine and destabilize “.
- A few days earlier, the Pentagon had called off plans to send two American warships to the Black Sea, according to Reuters. No explanation was given.
- The leaked Ukrainian document states that the total area of Russian military exercises covers 27% of the Black Sea, a percentage that is steadily increasing as a sign of efforts to gain de facto control of international waters.
- According to Ukraine, the Russians are also using civilian infrastructure for military purposes. The document says Russia installed radars on natural gas platforms it seized from Ukraine after the annexation of Crimea in 2014.
Between the lines: Radar systems on civilian infrastructure could allow the Russian military to establish awareness and presence in areas where it should not be.
- This month, Russian state media accused Poland of “provocative” activities near the controversial and near-completed Nord Stream 2 pipeline in the Baltic Sea.
- A US official closely monitoring these developments said, “the armament of the energy infrastructure in the Black Sea should be a warning of things to come” as Nord Stream 2, which would bypass Ukraine and supply Russian gas directly to Europe. , blossoms in the Baltic Sea.
- While Biden has said he’s against Nord Stream 2, he’s unlikely to sanction European allies like Germany to stop the final stretch of construction.
The big picture: Much of the concern about Russia’s aggression in recent weeks has focused not on its activities in the Black Sea, but on the border with Eastern Ukraine, where the European Union’s top diplomat claims that more than 150,000 troops have now been gathered .
- The leaked document shows that Russian forces are escalating their presence on all sides of the Ukrainian border with units possessing a wide range of capabilities, including many suggesting more sinister intentions than a simple display of violence.
- The document suggests that Russia’s actions could be aimed at distracting from domestic troubles ahead of the parliamentary elections in September, or countering NATO exercises and bullying Ukraine to reverse its “positive political developments.”
- But it also finds a “high probability” that Russia will try to challenge Ukrainian troops to create a pretext for a military incursion, as it did in Georgia in 2008.