MOSCOW (AP) – They are not leaders for life – at least not technically. But in political reality, the mighty office-bearers of Xi Jinping from China and, as of this week, Vladimir Putin from Russia, look like they will stretch much deeper into the 21st century – even as the two superpowers whose destinies they send gain more power with each other. past year.
What’s more, while consolidating political control at home, sometimes with harsh measures, they collaborate more substantively than ever in a growing challenge facing the West and the world’s other superpower, the United States, which elects its leader every four years. .
This week, Putin signed a law that could potentially allow him to remain in power until 2036. The 68-year-old Russian president, who has been in power for more than two decades – longer than any other Kremlin leader since Soviet dictator Josef Stalin – pushed through a constitutional vote last year allowing him to re-participate in 2024 when his current six-year term ends. He has overseen systematic action against dissent.
In China, Xi, who came to power in 2012, imposed even tighter controls on the already repressive political scene and emerged as one of his country’s most powerful leaders in the seven decades of Communist Party rule that began. with the often cruel Mao Zedong regime. . Under Xi, the government has rounded up, imprisoned or silenced intellectuals, legal activists and other voices, cracked down on Hong Kong’s opposition and used security forces to suppress calls for minority rights in Xinjiang, Tibet and Inner Mongolia.
Xi has sidelined rivals, locked up critics and tightened the party’s control over information. The continuous repression of corruption has won popular support while keeping potential competitors in line.
His steady consolidation of power led to the lifting of terms for the Chinese presidency in 2018, breaking a convention the party had instituted to prevent a repeat of the abuse caused by Mao’s one-man rule. Xi further telegraphed his intention to stay in power by breaking with tradition and not pointing to a preferred successor. Sun Zhengcai, one who seemed eager to take on the role, was taken down in 2017 and sentenced to life in prison on charges of corruption.
And in Russia, Putin’s most outspoken critic, Alexei Navalny, was arrested in January on his return from Germany, where he recovered for five months from a nerve infection he blames on the Kremlin – an accusation that the Russian authorities have denied. In February, Navalny was sentenced to 2½ years in prison.
By defying the West, Putin and Xi have both fueled nationalist sentiments. Russia’s 2014 annexation of Ukrainian Crimea propelled Putin’s approval ratings to nearly 90% before slackening amid economic woes and unpopular pension reforms.
But the impact of Putin and Xi’s enduring power retention hardly stops at the borders of their respective countries. It ripples outwards in countless ways in the geopolitical balance of power.
As Moscow’s relations with the West sank to a post-Cold War low amid allegations of election meddling and hacking attacks, Putin has increasingly sought to strengthen ties with China. And while China has so far avoided a confrontation with the West like Russia’s, it is coming under increasing pressure from Washington and its allies over Beijing’s human rights situation in Xinjiang, Hong Kong and the South China Sea.
US President Joe Biden has taken an increasingly strict stance on both leaders. He recently described Putin as a “murderer” and had his chief national security officers excuse China over a litany of issues. Such approaches suggest that Moscow and Beijing will have incentives to build an even stronger alliance.
Like their nations, the two leaders have also built a closer relationship themselves.
Putin and Xi have developed strong personal ties to strengthen a “strategic partnership” between the two former communist rivals as they battle for influence with the West. And while Moscow and Beijing have in the past rejected the possibility of forging a military alliance, Putin said last fall that such a prospect cannot be completely ruled out.
While both Putin and Xi appear to be firmly entrenched, many challenges remain. For example, the pandemic presented a major challenge to both rulers, and they took an equally cautious approach when it hit.
Putin responded last spring by introducing a sweeping six-week lockdown that severely hurt the already weak Russian economy. His approval score plummeted to an all-time low of 59%. Later, the government relaxed restrictions and steered clear of new lockdowns, reducing economic damage and bolstering Putin’s ratings.
Xi stayed out of the public eye for the first weeks of uncertainty, possibly out of fear that any misstep would have allowed his rivals to overthrow him. Ultimately, China controlled the pandemic better than many other places, cementing Xi ‘s position as a leader.
Xi also needs to consider how to please ambitious young politicians who may have their careers stunted by his long tenure. And he must show that his extended rule will not lead to the excesses of the Mao years, especially the disastrous and deeply traumatic Cultural Revolution of 1966-76.
“Xi is dealing with an essential paradox. He worships Mao and is building the same cult of personality and party central position, ”said Daniel Blumenthal, director of Asian Studies at the American Enterprise Institute. But he knows that his people fear and loathe Maoism, so he must also pretend that he is not Mao. For now, he is an undisputed strong leader who addresses cracks and fissures in the party and society through Maoist-style campaigns and purges. “
Putin faces even more daunting challenges. Russia’s economy is a fraction of China’s, and its overwhelming dependence on exports of oil and gas and other commodities makes it vulnerable to market fluctuations. Western economic and financial sanctions have cut Moscow’s access to Western technologies and capital markets, slowing the economy and hampering modernization efforts. Stagnating living standards and falling incomes have led to growing discontent.
Russia’s ever-closer ties with China are part of its strategy to offset Western sanctions. Chinese companies provided replacements for missing Western technologies, assisted in major infrastructure projects such as energy supplies to Crimea, and cut flows of funds to ease the burden of sanctions against Kremlin-associated tycoons.
“Beijing helped Moscow, at least to an extent, to withstand US and EU pressure,” Alexander Gabuev, the top Chinese expert at Carnegie Moscow Center, wrote in a recent analysis. “Thanks to this assistance, Moscow has also been able to become more assertive elsewhere in the world, from presence in the Middle East and Africa to supporting the Venezuelan regime and meddling in US elections.”
Military cooperation remains an important frontier. As pressure from the US increased, Russia has expanded military ties with China. Their armed forces have conducted a series of joint exercises, and Putin has noted that Russia has provided China with advanced military technologies.
But a full alliance – exerting the joint military force of Xi and Putin’s hold on their nations? Something similar seems less abstract when taking into account the increasingly close relationship between the two long-term leaders.
“We don’t need it,” Putin said in October. “But theoretically it is quite possible to imagine it.”
Ken Moritsugu, the news director of The Associated Press in Greater China, reports from Beijing.