Kuo: Apple Car still in early stages, probably launched until 2025-2027 at the earliest

Earlier this week, Reuters reported that Apple is aiming for 2024 to produce its long-rumored electric car with “next level” battery technology, but Apple analyst Ming-Chi Kuo believes a launch is unlikely until 2025-2027 at the earliest.

In a research note obtained today by MacRumors, Kuo said Apple Car specifications have yet to be finalized, adding that he wouldn’t be surprised if the vehicle launch timeframe is pushed even further to 2028 or later:

We predicted in a previous report that Apple will launch Apple Car in 2023-2025 […] However, our latest research indicates that Apple Car’s current development schedule is unclear, and if development starts this year and all goes well, it will be launched in 2025-2027 at the earliest. Due to changes in the EV / self-driving market and Apple’s high quality standards, we wouldn’t be surprised if Apple Car’s launch schedule is postponed to 2028 or later.

Kuo said the market is “overly optimistic” about Apple Car’s launch schedule, and has advised investors not to buy Apple Car-related shares at this time.

While he doesn’t believe the Apple Car has a chance of success, Kuo said there is uncertainty about how competitive Apple would be in the EV / self-driving vehicle market as the company lags behind in deep learning / artificial intelligence:

The market has high expectations of Apple Car. Still, we remind investors that while Apple has several competitive advantages, it is not always successful in new ones
company. For example, Apple failed to enter the smart speaker market. Demand for HomePod and HomePod mini was lower than expected and development of new smart speaker models was temporarily suspended. Competition in the electric / self-driving car market is fiercer than smart speaker market, so we think it’s dangerous to quickly conclude that Apple Car will succeed.

If Apple Car is to succeed in the future, the most important success factor is big data / AI, not hardware. One of our biggest concerns about Apple Car is that when Apple Car launches, today’s self-driving car brands will have accumulated at least five years of big data and are conducive to deep learning / AI. How does Apple, a latecomer, bridge this lagging gap?

Reuters claimed that Apple’s self-driving vehicle will have a unique “monocell” battery design that “frees up space in the battery pack by eliminating pouches and modules containing battery materials,” potentially resulting in increased range per charge.

Tesla CEO Elon Musk recently responded to rumors about Apple Car on Twitter, claiming that a “monocell” battery is “electrochemically impossible.” Musk also claimed he reached out to Apple CEO Tim Cook “during the darkest days” of Model 3 production to discuss the possibility of Apple acquiring Tesla for a fraction of its current value, but Cook apparently declined the meeting.

All in all, it sounds like the Apple Car remains a distant reality.