If you are in the current state of Tennessee you may be joining a Hire.
Maybe it will come true. Maybe not. You can have hope, but not certainty. You’re in no position to lure a surefire A-list candidate to run your lapsed football program – new athletics director Danny White has been trying for the past few days and it has failed. So you keep going through the list – from proven to exciting to maybe – until you get a yes.
It can be a great job, on paper in the top half of the Southeastern Conference and with the potential to compete for league and league titles. But right now it’s a dubious job, fraught with danger and clouded by the unknown, with a fan base that could politely be labeled as fleeting. That reduces the viable candidate pool to Maybes, and White chose a familiar Maybe.
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That’s Josh Heupel, who was introduced on Wednesday as the new coach of the volunteers. Hipel was brought in from Central Florida by White, fresh out of UCF himself last week, making it reasonable to wonder if White also loaded the Knights’ 2017 (mythical) national championship board into Tennessee’s private jet. The Big Orange attack on Orlando took all but the last bit of Who Hash.
Hipel was 28–8 at UCF, a great record, but there is some evidence that the program was deteriorating under him. He inherited a team that came out of a 13–0 season with a returning superstar quarterback in McKenzie Milton, and his seasons went from 12–1, 10–3, 6–4. After a 9–0 debut season in the American Athletic Conference, he went 11–5 for the next two seasons.
(History considers Milton to be perhaps the friendliest of all when it comes to UCF’s ’17 through ’18 run. Scott Frost’s record as head coach at Milton, as his starting quarterback was 17-6; without him, it’s 14-21. Hip’s record with Milton was 11–0; without him it is 17–8. And Milton’s presence at UCF was instrumental in the arrival of fellow Hawaiian and current novice QB Dillon Gabriel to school.)
For many Tennessee fans, the hire of Heupel is the next step in getting to grips with the program. They’ve ignored decades of evidence that the Vols are just another program – instead, they believe in Santa Gruden and believe hiring coaches like Greg Schiano and Dave Doeren were among them. The fact is that this is currently a difficult sell.
James Franklin did not leave Penn State job security for Tennessee, no matter how much money White was rumored to offer. PJ Fleck? Please. SMU coach Sonny Dykes does not leave the state of Texas for a difficult schedule that has to fight against Alabama, Georgia and Florida every season. And offensive coordinator Tony Elliott wouldn’t leave Clemson’s rock solid reliability for Rocky Top.
Since Phillip Fulmer’s last good season, in 2007, this is what Tennessee football is: a losing program (78-82 in total, 36-70 in the SEC, zero titles in the East Division); a program in constant transition (Heupel is the sixth permanent head coach); and now a program immersed in a self-acknowledged major NCAA investigation that is still months (maybe years) ahead.
From ’08 to ’20, the Vols’ SEC’s win rate was 0.339. The only lower East Division programs are Kentucky and Vanderbilt. South Carolina (.481) and Missouri (.473 since joining the league in ’12) are well ahead of Tennessee.
The reports against the teams the Vols used to compete in the East are terrifying: Florida has defeated Tennessee 15 of the last 16; Georgia has won nine of the last eleven. And the annual crossover rivalry with Alabama is a recurring nightmare: the Crimson Tide has won 14. Since Bama’s nose strike Terrence Cody blocked a field goal at the last second to win in ’09, Lane Kiffin’s only season at UT, the fates of the two programs have diverged dramatically.
Alabama wins national titles. Tennessee leads the nation in dysfunction.
At the very least, hiring White was a step toward ability, and away from the toxic culture that has been around for far too long in Knoxville. Fulmer made his way to the track of athletic director amid a ridiculous fan rebellion and wasted no time proving his inadequacy in that position. He hired the unproven Jeremy Pruitt because he was an SEC Ball Coach, and what he got was a guy who couldn’t win and whose staff couldn’t play by the rules.
The ex-coach, comfort rental AD is a holdover from the 20th century. White is a pure break from that. He is paid a lot ($ 1.8 million) to clean the place and run a department that is impervious to fans and boosters getting involved. How Vol Nation accepts a Hipel appointment that doesn’t thrill the population will be a measure of its understanding that this is a new era.
Hipel fulfills White’s desire for a coach with a particular brand – in this case, a powerful, fan-friendly, recruit-friendly offense. UCF was second nationally in total offense in ’20, averaging 568.1 yards per game, and Gabriel led the nation in passing yards per game at 357. After years of watching Tennessee fouls sputter, you should change.
The downside is that UCF allowed 33.2 points per game in ’20, 92nd national and most since a winless season in ’15. That was a big reason the Knights didn’t beat any team that finished with a winning record last season. That 6–4 number is not based on anything substantial.
Cincinnati, a more complete team, had become the dominant program in the AAC. Memphis won the league title in ’19. UCF’s run was brilliant, but short, raising the question of whether it could be repeated in a much tougher conference and at a school with less natural benefits.
Maybe Josh Heupel can do it. Maybe he can’t. That’s just the kind of rent that battered, troubled Tennessee should make.