Johnson & Johnson Covid Vaccine: Analysts are cautiously optimistic

Illustration of the Johnson & Johnson Coronavirus Vaccine

Given Ruvic | Reuters

LONDON – Healthcare systems around the world are grappling with the increasing number of Covid-19 infections as they race against time to vaccinate the vulnerable.

The three vaccines currently approved for use by the major Western economies all require two separate injections, and given the limited supplies, governments are considering controversial tactics such as increasing the time between doses to get at least one dose to as many people as possible.

A one-time vaccine can greatly improve our ability to fight the virus – and we may have one soon.

J & J’s late stage in the process

Johnson & Johnson is expected to provide preliminary late-stage test results for its candidate single-dose vaccine Covid by the end of January. If the shot is proven to be safe and effective, the company aims to deliver at least 1 billion doses by the end of the year.

The J&J vaccine was developed by the company’s Belgian unit, Janssen Pharmaceutica, and is based on viral adenovirus vector technology, the same approach used to create the University of Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine. This type of shot is easier to scale up than those developed by Pfizer-BioNTech and Moderna and which are based on messenger RNA technology.

Shore Capital health care analyst Adam Barker said in an email to CNBC last week, “The J&J vaccine is more like the AstraZeneca vaccine, but it uses only one dose. So we know this approach works (viral vector). and it targets the spike protein. We know that target works. But we’ll have to see what a dose does. “

Morgan Stanley’s health care team said in a research note published last week that J & J’s vaccine “offers unique elements and that its efficacy could be a positive surprise as AstraZeneca drives confidence in pandemic responses and market recovery.”

The investment bank is confident in the vaccine’s safety profile, given the early study data, “along with the previous success and safety profile demonstrated in their Ebola vaccine and its experimental use in HIV, RSV and Zika.”

A report from the Tony Blair Institute for Global Change, which was founded by the former British Prime Minister, calls the AstraZeneca and Johnson & Johnson jabs “the two workhorse vaccines” because they should be widely available and easier to administer than the mRNA. shots.

With J & J’s technology, the vaccine is estimated to remain stable at normal refrigeration temperatures for at least three months, so no new infrastructure is needed to transport.

Expected timeline

J&J completed enrollment of its 45,000 phase three clinical trial participants for its single-dose candidate vaccine on December 17. Preliminary data from the trial is expected to be available by the end of the month.

If the data shows that the vaccine is safe and effective, the company expects to file an emergency authorization application with the U.S. Food and Drug Administration in February. Other health regulatory uses around the world are expected to be done in parallel.

Supply agreements

The company has committed to selling the vaccine on a non-profit basis for use in an emergency pandemic.

J&J entered into an agreement with the US in August 2020 to provide 100 million doses of the vaccine upon FDA approval or emergency use approval, and the option to purchase up to 200 million additional doses under a subsequent agreement.

The UK reached a deal in August to initially purchase 30 million doses of the J&J vaccine with an option to purchase up to 22 million additional doses. The EU signed a deal with J&J in October for the supply of up to 400 million doses.

J&J has also agreed to provide up to 500 million doses of its vaccine as part of an in-principle agreement with The Vaccine Alliance (Gavi), which is responsible for fair access to vaccines, including to lower-income countries through COVAX. These doses will be distributed until 2022 if the vaccine candidate is approved for use.

“If J & J’s Ad26 platform is able to deliver 80% + efficacy through a single dose, given the favorable treatment requirements of the vaccine and the significant production scale, we would consider this a compelling outcome,” said Morgan Stanley.

As for what governments need to do in the meantime, Jonathan Reiner, professor of medicine and surgery at George Washington University School of Medicine & Health Sciences, says, “The J&J vaccine is why we are introducing the two-dose strategy for Pfizer. “Don’t give up on BioNTech. And Moderna. We probably have all the vaccine we need. We need to focus on getting the vaccines in our arms.”

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