In the coming hours, Boris Johnson faces a choice that will determine his prime minister: accept a trade deal with the European Union or go alone.
It could hardly have come at a more difficult time. As he grapples with his dilemma over the UK’s relationship with its closest and largest trading partner, so is his government fighting a new, highly contagious variant of the coronavirus that has prompted EU countries to impose travel bans and plunged much of England into emergency situations.
With just days left until the UK leaves the EU’s internal market and customs union on December 31st at 11pm (London time) – and the UK government rule out any extension of that deadline – it’s still not clear which way Johnson will go after the bloc refused to make more concessions over the weekend.
People close to the negotiations on both sides said there is a good chance a deal could be struck on Monday, but acknowledge that there is still a significant chance that talks could fail.
While both sides see Christmas as a natural deadline, EU and UK officials don’t even rule out being asked to return later in December for a final push if needed. EU officials said the problem isn’t really over time, but whether Johnson wants to go for it or not.
“The obligation for the next few days is to conclude these negotiations – it is possible,” Irish Foreign Minister Simon Coveney told RTE Radio. “Countries like France, the Netherlands, Denmark, Belgium and Ireland are very unlikely to support any other offer, as we have our own interests, just like the UK.”
Johnson wants to get concessions from the EU to get a good deal to please lawmakers from his own party he will rely on to get an agreement approved. Several have urged him to walk away from the negotiations and many of those same MPs are also dissatisfied with the way he is handling the latest developments in the coronavirus crisis.
As Brexit uncertainty persisted, Johnson was scheduled to hold a meeting of the UK government’s emergency committee on Monday to discuss the rise in infections and the impact on international travel. Meanwhile, the pound slumped 2.5% against the dollar for the worst day since the virus spun markets in March.
David Frost, the UK’s chief negotiator, and his team of around 25 people are in Brussels, waiting for their final orders with their European Commission counterparts.
‘Crucial moment’
“At this crucial moment in the negotiations between the EU and the UK, we are continuing to work hard with David Frost and his team,” Michel Barnier, the EU’s chief negotiator, said on Twitter on Sunday. “The EU remains committed to a fair, reciprocal and balanced agreement. We respect the sovereignty of the UK and we expect the same. “
The whole deal – which would include a security relationship and cooperation arrangements in several other areas – now hinges almost entirely on reaching an agreement on the rights that EU boats will have to fish in UK waters.
Johnson’s government sees taking back control of British waters as a matter of sovereignty, while European countries with large fishing industries oppose any move by the EU to compromise to negotiate a deal.
Following discussions with member states on Friday, the Commission made an offer that would cause the bloc to lose about 25% of the current 650 million euros ($ 735 million) of fish it catches annually in UK waters. The UK has rejected it, pushing for the EU to give up 60%, according to the officials who spoke on condition of anonymity.
The difference between the two parties in economic terms thus amounts to about 230 million euros worth of fish, a small amount in the context of their broader trade relationship. British trade with France alone amounts to about € 53 billion a year.
Last offer?
The EU’s offer was widely considered final, said people close to the negotiations. The bloc also offered to shorten the conduction period of the new arrangements to six years, after it initially wanted 10. The UK rejected the six offer and only proposed three years.
One person familiar with the UK side of the negotiations said that fundamental questions remain unanswered about what the EU’s proposals mean for UK fishing communities.
Johnson faced calls on Monday from the Prime Minister of Scotland Nicola Sturgeon and London Mayor Sadiq Khan to extend the post-transition period in the UK beyond the end of the year to allow more time for negotiations. That’s something that Johnson has ruled out before and that the EU has said is legally impossible.
The European Parliament, which has a veto over the entire agreement, warned that it will not be able to ratify any agreement in time for the end of the transition period on December 31.
The EU may have to take the rare step of applying an agreement provisionally, before putting it to a vote in the new year – or the UK could face a curse outside the bloc without a trade deal.
“We need more time,” Bernd Lange, chair of the European Parliament’s committee on international trade, told Bloomberg Television on Monday. “We are ready to be flexible, but the last word will come next year.”
If no trade agreement is reached, the UK can do business with its largest and closest commercial partner under conditions set by the World Trade Organization. That would mean millions of businesses and consumers would be faced with the costs and disruption of tariffs and quotas.
– With the help of Dara Doyle, Peter Flanagan, Alberto Nardelli and Maria Tadeo
(Adds government excluding extension in third paragraph)