Dozens of countries have banned travel from the UK in an effort to include a new Covid-19 variant that was first reported in England.
The new mutation is dubbed VUI-202012/01 – the UK’s first “Variant Under Investigation” in December 2020. As scientists search for more information on the variant, its impact is already being felt, with dozens of countries imposing restrictions to travelers from the UK.
Here’s what we know about the Covid-19 variant so far:
What is a variant and why are civil servants concerned about this? A variant occurs when the genetic structure of a virus changes. All viruses mutate over time and new variants are common, including for the new coronavirus.
Like other variants, this one has a genetic fingerprint that makes it easy to track down, and it is one that is now widespread in South East England. That alone does not necessarily mean that a variant is more contagious or dangerous.
But scientists advising the UK government estimate that this variant can be up to 70% more effective at spreading than others. Peter Horby, chairman of the New and Emerging Respiratory Virus Threats Advisory Group (NERVTAG), said on Monday that experts “are now very confident that this variant has a transmission advantage” over other variants.
The World Health Organization said on Tuesday that the changes in the variant include 14 key mutations, and that some of them “may affect the transmissibility of the virus in humans,” although it added that further laboratory studies were needed.
Where does the variant come from and how did it develop? According to WHO, the new variant originated in South East England. Public Health England (PHE) says back-tracing, using genetic evidence, suggests the variant first showed up in England in September. Then it circulated at very low levels until mid-November.
Chris Whitty, England’s chief medical officer, said on Saturday that the variant was responsible for 60% of new infections in London, which have nearly doubled in the past week alone.
Multiple experts have also suggested that this new variant could have been amplified due to a superspreader event, meaning that in cases the current spike could also have been caused by human behavior.
Is the new variant more deadly? There is currently no evidence that the new variant is more deadly, according to Whitty and WHO, although it is too early to say.
Several experts have noted that in some cases virus mutations that increase transmissibility are associated with a decrease in virulence and mortality.
“As viruses are transmitted, viruses can be selected that allow for more virological ‘success’, changing the properties of the virus over time. This typically leads to more transmission and less virulence,” says Martin Hibberd, professor of emerging infectious diseases at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, the SMC said.
Read more about the British coronavirus variant here.