JERUSALEM (AP) – Israelis will vote in their fourth parliamentary election in just two years on Tuesday. Again, the race amounts to a referendum on Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
Netanyahu, who has served as prime minister for the past 12 years, hopes voters will reward him for leading the successful rollout of the coronavirus vaccine in the country. and its diplomatic reach to the Arab worldHis challengers have highlighted his previous missteps in coronavirus strategy, his reliance on divisive religious and ultra-nationalist allies, and his ongoing corruption process.
Over the years, Netanyahu has earned a reputation as a political magician and master manipulator capable of surviving any crisis. With witnesses set to take a stand against him next month, Netanyahu is hoping for another miracle that could produce a kinder parliament willing to grant him immunity or freeze his trial. Opponents portray him as a serial liar who has caused political paralysis for two years by putting his political survival and legal troubles ahead of the country’s interests.
Polls predict an extremely tight race, raising the likelihood of a persistent deadlock and even an unprecedented fifth consecutive election. Netanyahu appears to have a slight advantage due to the complexity of Israel’s political system.
In Israel, people vote for parties, not individual candidates. Netanyahu’s Likud is once again poised to emerge as the largest individual party. But since no party has ever achieved a parliamentary majority of 61 seats on its own, political alliances must be formed to create a governing coalition. If the polls are correct, Netanyahu would have a clearer path to building a government than the string of rivals who have little in common other than their hostility to him.
Here’s a look at the key factors that could determine whether Netanyahu or one of his challengers can reach that elusive 61-seat majority.
VACCINATION: Netanyahu has pinned his hopes of reelection on the success of Israel’s successful vaccination campaign. Netanyahu moved quickly and aggressively last December, personally lobbying the CEOs of Pfizer and Moderna to obtain enough vaccines for Israel’s 9.3 million people. In less than three months, Israel vaccinated about 80% of its adult populationNow that the infection rate has fallen sharply, the country has been able to reopen its doors schools, restaurants, museums and the main airport, just in time for election day.
Opponents have accused Netanyahu of screwing up management of the pandemic last year. A series of lockdowns have hit the economy hard, thousands of companies have gone bankrupt and unemployment remains double-digit. Many also have bitter memories of Netanyahu’s ultra-Orthodox allies ignoring the lockdown rules and point to the more than 6,000 COVID-19 deaths in the country.
As the economy comes back to life, Netanyahu hopes the growing sense of normalcy will make voters forget about the difficulties of the past year. This could explain that while polls show a majority of Israelis want Netanyahu to be replaced, he is also seen as the most qualified to be prime minister.
“In people’s minds, when you go to an election, it’s the prime minister’s identity first and foremost,” said Yohanan Plesner, president of the Israel Democracy Institute. “In many ways this works in Netanyahu’s favor as it is unclear who the opponent is.”
SHOULD I STAY OR SHOULD I GO: Polls show that about 15% of voters remain undecided. Tuesday’s election will depend not only on who these voters support, but whether they want to vote at all.
Analysts expect voter turnout to be lower than the level of 71% in the most recent election a year ago, in part due to ongoing concerns about the coronavirus coupled with general voter fatigue. Israel offers special accommodation, including separate booths and mobile polling stations, so that people who are sick or in quarantine can vote.
But more important than general turnout is voter participation in key sectors. Netanyahu’s religious and nationalist allies generally have highly motivated voters. On the other hand, Arab voters, disappointed at the breakup of the overarching “Joint List” party, are expected to stay home in greater numbers this time. Voters in the more liberal and secular areas around Tel Aviv also tend to have a lower participation rate. Netanyahu could benefit if these trends materialize.
ON THE EDGES: This election may depend on the appearance of a few small parties. In order to join the Knesset or parliament, a party must receive at least 3.25% of the vote, giving it a minimum of four seats in the 120-seat body.
Pollster Camil Fuchs said there are four small parties floating at the threshold. Among them, the moderate Meretz Party and the centrist Blue and White are “much more at risk” of not getting enough support, according to recent polls, he said. Both are members of the anti-Netanyahu block.
The Religious Zionist Party, a small pro-Netanyahu faction that includes openly racist and homophobic candidates, appears to be gaining momentum. If one of the anti-Netanyahu parties fails to get in, a strong display of the religious Zionists could push Netanyahu over the edge.
THE KINGMAKERS: Despite the tight race, neither Netanyahu and his religious and tough allies, nor the anti-Netanyahu bloc, led by centrist Yair Lapid’s Yesh Atid party, are expected to take a majority of the seats on their own.
That sets the tone for former Netanyahu assistant Naftali Bennett to emerge as the decisive voice in the coalition building. Bennett’s Yemina Party supports the same harsh ideology as the Likud. But the two men have a notoriously tense relationship, and Bennett has refused to commit to either side.
Given their similar worldviews, Bennett, who has served as Netanyahu’s education and defense minister, seems better suited to join Netanyahu than the anti-Netanyahu bloc, which ranges from moderate Arab parties to hard-line former Netanyahu allies. who have had bitter personal fractures with him. But if Bennett were given the chance to become prime minister, he could side with Netanyahu’s opponents.
Some polls have predicted that neither side will get into a coalition, even with Bennett’s support. That could create the unlikely scenario of a small Islamic party led by Arab lawmaker Mansour Abbas as kingmaker – or simply force a fifth election.
MISSING IN ACTION: In the previous three elections, Netanyahu boasted of his close alliance with then-President Donald Trump, placing huge billboards on highways and high-rises showing the men together. With Joe Biden occupying the White House, Netanyahu has barely named the new president, whose government has received him coldly.
Likewise, almost no mention has been made of the Palestinians, reflecting the years of freezing of substantial peace efforts. But Biden has indicated that he will soon be back in talks with the Palestinians. That could make it difficult for the next Israeli leader to ignore the issue – or Biden.