Copenhagen in February 2020.
Photographer: NurPhoto / NurPhoto
Photographer: NurPhoto / NurPhoto
Vaccines are slowly but surely being rolled out around the world. Does this mean it is time to start thinking about travel?
The tourist industry would like to say yes. According to the most recent data from the World Travel and Tourism Council, which was published in early November, the travel restrictions due to the coronavirus pandemic would cost $ 4.7 trillion in global gross domestic product in 2020 alone.
But medical professionals still urge caution – a message that will remain imperative even after individuals have been vaccinated against Covid-19.
Among their warnings: Vaccines are not 100% effective; it takes weeks to build up immunity (after the second image), little is known about the ability to transfer Covid-19, even after immunization; and herd immunity will be a long way off. They agree that the risks will persist, but freedom of movement can safely increase – at least allow for certain types of travel – between individuals with protection from the virus.
Yes, you still need to wear a mask.
Here’s what else you need to know about travel safety in the coming months, whether you’ve already had a chance or are looking for normalcy somewhere on the horizon.
What we know and what we don’t know
The Covid-19 vaccines approved to date, both in the US and Europe, have proven to be that exceptionally safe, effective and the strongest tool yet in the fight against the pandemic. Still, unknowns are known, especially when it comes to possible virus transmission after vaccination.
A nurse administers a vaccine at NYU-Langone Hospital in New York.
Photographer: Kevin Hagen / AP
This question boils down to one point: Clinical trials for the currently approved vaccines, including those from Pfizer and Moderna, did not include regular PCR tests of the study participants. Without any data on their ability to carry the virus, there is enough compelling evidence to suggest only that vaccines provide 95% effective protection against symptomatic infection, says Dr. Kristin Englund, infectious disease specialist at Cleveland Clinic.
“For the most part, if you’re vaccinated against [a disease]”Call it chicken pox or measles – you shouldn’t be able to pass that virus on to anyone else,” Englund explains, adding that there is no known reason to believe that Covid-19 or the related vaccines should behave differently. ‘I expect that’s what we’ll see [with Covid-19 vaccines as well], but we have to wait for studies to prove it before we can lower our guard significantly. “
There are other important unknowns as well. “To see a vaccine that is 95% effective – that’s remarkable numbers, much better than we ever expected,” says Englund. ‘But we don’t currently have the ability to know who will respond well [to the vaccine] and who will be one of the 5%. “
How to Think About Herd Immunity
Another unknown, to a lesser extent, is what it takes to achieve herd immunity.
“The general consensus is that between 70% and 80% [of the population being immune] to eliminate widespread risks – maybe more, ”said Dr. Scott Weisenberg, who is both director of the infectious diseases fellowship program at NYU and medical director of the university’s travel medicine program. “We are many months away from that, assuming that the vaccine will actually reverse transmission and people will get it.”
In a best-case scenario where things are going well, Weisenberg believes herd immunity could be achieved in the US sometime this summer – pending the approval of easier-to-distribute vaccines like that of AstraZeneca, which could accelerate the rollout.
However, that is highly unlikely.
“Acceptance of the vaccine is a big, crucial question,” he adds. To its point, the World Health Organization cited hesitation in the vaccine as one of the top 10 public health threats in 2019, even before Covid-19 was part of the picture.
But herd immunity can be cut and diced in many ways.
“You can talk about herd immunity within a state, within a smaller community, or even within a family,” adds Englund. “So if everyone but one in a room has been vaccinated, you should be able to offer that person more protection.”
That’s a notable consideration for family gatherings where younger members take longer to qualify for the vaccine than older or more at-risk members. (The currently approved vaccines have not yet been tested or approved for children by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration, which could hinder air travel between multigenerational groups well into 2021.)
A Kenya safari may seem like a good socially distant vacation option, but you’ll want to consider your transfers
Source: original Africa
Decide where to go on your next vacation – and who to travel with – may have more to do with antibodies than with normal considerations like weather and price.
“Be sure to look at the current infection rate in that area and absolutely, the uptake of vaccination in that population – those are two very important things,” says Englund.
Don’t be surprised if it feels like a counterintuitive exercise, Weisenberg adds.
In New York City, where 25% of the population is thought to have contracted Covid-19, herd immunity may require a relatively smaller number of vaccinations if the previously infected humans retain equivalent antibodies.
“The risk [of picking up or spreading the virus] may even be relatively low, ”says Weisenberg of a visit to Manhattan, given the rigor of lockdown measures, the historical acceptance of vaccines in urban areas compared to rural areas, and the high rates of Covid-19 testing among locals – despite the incredible population density.
Head to Kenya, where you may have a totally socially distant safari, he adds, and you may have to get through places like Nairobi, where testing is low and it’s hard to get an accurate picture of the real- time risks.
The evolving definition of “safe travel”
Expect the definition of safe travel to shift week by week, especially as parts of the world face the wave of issues related to vacation travel and new variants of the virus.
“You have to take into account the difficulties of going somewhere and bring the virus back to an area where it has consequences,” Weisenberg says. He hopes the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention will eventually have layered destination warnings, depending on local risk, along the lines of the agency’s measles warnings, but says, “It’s just too widespread right now to click on those way to isolate. “
A good idea might be to look up hospital availability figures (and particularly ICU beds) before going on vacation anywhere to make sure the local system isn’t already overwhelmed.
A Delta plane is being disinfected.
Photographer: Michael A. McCoy / Getty Images North America
Weisenberg also believes that the increasing accuracy of rapid Covid-19 antigen tests will help ensure safety as mobility increases; it is noteworthy that the new US requirements for participation include negative test results, even for those who have already been vaccinated.
‘I’m going to get on a plane; I’ll be honest with you, ”says Englund. “I’ll wear a mask, I’ll make sure we have seats where we don’t sit next to anyone else, with enough space in between, with all the hand sanitizing.
“We get an Airbnb and spend quality time on the beach,” she continues, “and when we visit local sites, we pretend we’re not vaccinated – we approach things with the same precautions as vaccine. I don’t think that there is something wrong with that. “