Iran’s President Hassan Rouhani speaks at the National Combat Board Meeting with Coronavirus (Covid-19) in Tehran, Iran on November 21, 2020.
Handout of the Iranian Presidency | Anadolu Agency | Getty Images
The United States and Iran will resume talks on Friday aimed at restoring confidence and bridging what Washington calls “huge and profound differences” on how to save their failed nuclear deal.
Iranian President Hassan Rouhani told a cabinet meeting in Tehran on Wednesday that the initial talks with the US and world powers in Vienna to save the deal were a ‘success’ opening a ‘new chapter’ to save the deal, according to a statement. through its official website.
Both countries called Tuesday’s indirect talks a “useful step” and “constructive” despite none of the representatives meeting in person. Officials chose to use the deal’s European signatories as a middleman.
“We are not optimistic or pessimistic about the outcome of this meeting now, but we are confident that we are on the right track,” said Ali Rabiei, a spokesman for the Iranian government. “Full implementation of this agreement will certainly be completed in the coming weeks,” he added.
Tehran takes an “all or nothing” approach to the talks. It wants Washington to guarantee full lifting of Trump-era sanctions in order to scale back its enrichment activity. The Iranian side is also under pressure from the times, with presidential elections set to fall in June this year and remove President Rouhani and Foreign Minister Javad Zarif from office.
Washington, however, is pursuing a “compliance for compliance” approach, with President Joe Biden ruling out all “unilateral gestures,” but still open to exploring how the US could also resume its own adherence to the deal.
An early economic olive branch appears to have already failed, with Iran describing a US proposal to release $ 1 billion in frozen oil money in exchange for Iran truncating its uranium enrichment program as “ridiculous.”
“The first problem these talks should solve is the fundamental disconnected approach,” Kirsten Fontenrose of the Scowcroft Middle East Security Initiative told CNBC’s Hadley Gamble on Wednesday.
“Until you square that circle, you can’t get anywhere,” she said.
As talks were to resume in Vienna on Friday, two working groups were set up to define the framework for the negotiations. The first group focuses on the issue of US sanctions, which were imposed by the Trump administration after it abandoned the original deal in 2018.
The second group examines how to bring Iran back into line with the original JCPOA’s limits for enrichment and supplies of enriched uranium. Iran has repeatedly violated the terms of the agreement, causing concern among European and international signatories and tensions among its Middle Eastern neighbors.
Friday’s lectures could set the stage for more constructive conversations or a full-on showdown. In the past, Iran has used the first week of April to celebrate its “Nuclear Technology Day”, which showcases the country’s nuclear achievements. The event was postponed last year due to the coronavirus outbreak.
“This day is an opportunity for people to see that in these years, despite the economic pressures, great strides and achievements have been made in the country’s nuclear technologies,” said President Rouhani.
Oil impact
Oil prices recovered slightly when the first talks were concluded. A breakthrough could be bearish for crude oil, analysts say, if it offers the prospect of large amounts of Iranian oil exports returning to the market.
“If I were in an oil business, I would probably think I’m in a pretty safe space because it looks like this is going to continue,” said Fontenrose.
“We will not have much disruption because we are not getting close to getting Iranian oil back on the market, and we don’t see any major strides by Iran or the Gulf that would destabilize energy flow,” she added. .