According to the latest forecast from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington, an estimated 631,000 Americans will have died from Covid-19 by June 1.
The team behind the influential forecasting model said much depends on the rollout of vaccines and the spread of variants. In the worst case, the death toll could reach 703,000.
“The balance between the spread of new variants and the associated increased transmission and scaling up of vaccination in our most likely scenario suggests a sustained decline in deaths through June 1,” he said.
According to data from Johns Hopkins University, the US had reported more than 455,000 deaths from Covid-19 since Thursday night.
The IHME cited a poll showing an increase in the number of Americans seeking to get vaccinated, from 54% to 66%.
“Daily deaths have peaked and are declining. By June 1, 2021, we predict that 123,600 lives will be saved by the planned vaccine rollout, ”the IHME said.
How to Save More Lives: If 95% of Americans wore masks, an additional 44,000 lives would be saved, the IHME said. Currently, mask usage is about 77%.
And people should stay put, even if they’ve been vaccinated, the IHME said. If vaccinated people start exercising and traveling normally, 17 states could see rising daily mortality again by April and May.
“The best strategies to deal with this period of the pandemic are rapid scaling-up of vaccination, continued and extensive mask wear, and concerted efforts to prevent rebound mobility in vaccinees. Some states are rapidly lifting mandates, posing a real risk of increased transmission as new variants spread and vaccination coverage remains relatively low, ”the IHME warned.