India struggles to monitor coronavirus mutations amid record-breaking infections

Photographer: Dhiraj Singh / Bloomberg

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India’s failure to quickly screen Covid-19 samples for new variants risks hurting the fight against a record of infections, with scientists warning that the delays could harm everything from vaccine efficacy to effective hospital treatments.

The South Asian nation tested less than 1% of its positive samples according to government data, compared to the UK that sequenced 8% of infections and 33% in the past week, the Covid-19 Genomics UK Consortium said. The US reported last month that it was sequencing about 4% of the 400,000 new cases weekly, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention noted

India reported more than 115,000 new daily infections on Wednesday, bringing the number of cases to 12.8 million, after Brazil and the U.S. The richest state of Maharashtra has emerged as the epicenter, forcing the government to shut down all non-essential services to commission private companies to work from home and close shopping centers and restaurants until April. Other states have also imposed restrictions, but none as strict.

After new variants from the UK were discovered on several inbound passengers, India set one consortium of 10 state-run laboratories to sequence positive test samples in December. However, between January and March, the country only studied 11,064 of its samples, the health ministry said during a March 30 briefing, which is less than 0.6% over that period.

The resurgence in cases could hurt burgeoning growth in Asia’s third-largest economy, which plunged into a historic recession last year after Prime Minister Narendra Modi announced a strict nationwide lockdown. Genetic sequencing of test samples helps to quickly detect new variants as the virus mutates, allowing countries to rework their virus strategies based on the new strains. But surveillance is patchy worldwide, and scientists warn that dangerous mutations are likely to spread unnoticed.

Variant concerns

India does not have enough data on the new variants to explain the steep, ninefold jump in infections from about 11,000 daily new cases in early February. Bhramar Mukherjee, a professor in the University of Michigan School of Public Health.

“We are essentially doing reverse engineering to explain the features of the virus curve, as we don’t have credible data on variants of concern and genomic surveillance,” said Mukherjee. “The more you allow the infection to spread, the more likely the virus will mutate.”

In India, according to the Ministry of Health, 807 cases involving variants from the UK, 47 from the South African tribe and one from the Brazilian form were discovered on March 30, which has maintained that the increase in new infections is not linked to new ones. variants. Studies suggest that some of these new species are more contagious, and there is some evidence that one of them is more deadly and another riding reinfections.

A health ministry spokeswoman did not respond to email requests for comment.

India has plenty of lab capacity for genome sequencing, but getting a wide distribution of regular samples from all over the country – including the rural hinterland and possible super-spreader events – has been a problem, said Rakesh Mishra, the director of the Center for Cellular and Molecular Biology in Hyderabad, one of the laboratories working on the sequence of positive virus samples.

“We don’t rank for numbers sake, we rank in a meaningful way,” Mishra said. More needs to be done, he said, noting that the government was mobilizing resources to get suitable samples from all regions.

Virus peak

While infections are spiraling, five states are in the middle of elections with thousands of voters thronging for campaign rallies, while northern Uttarakhand’s month long Hindu pilgrimage of the Kumbh Mela, which draws hundreds of thousands of people to the banks of the Ganges River.

It is this increased movement of people, along with the slow pace of vaccinations and declining adherence to masking and social distance that is contributing to the new spike, said Rijo M. John, a Kerala-based economist and public health policy analyst who consults for the World Health Organization. “While the second wave has been less deadly so far, it will all get worse than the first wave.”

The word’s biggest vaccination drive, which began on Jan. 16, has failed to achieve the government’s own goal, sustained by an over-reliance on technology and a lack of proactive measures to reduce hesitancy to vaccines, John said.

India vaccinates an average of 2.6 million doses per day. At this rate, one more is needed two years to cover 75% of the population. About 5% received one dose, and only about 0.8% received the two required injections, according to the Bloomberg Vaccine Tracker.

People had dropped their guard after seeing people with mild Covid-19 cases recover, said Jayaprakash Muliyil, chair of the National Institute of Epidemiology’s Scientific Advisory Committee.

“So the group of people who were very careful, who took extreme precautions, suddenly changed their behavior,” Muliyil said. “For three months there was a tempting drop in the number of cases, and the average person thought it was gone.”

Modi, who described the virus rise on Sunday as “alarming, ”is scheduled to meet with key state ministers on Thursday to discuss the brewery health crisis.

“It’s much easier to roll out vaccination if the infection isn’t that high,” said Mukherjee. “Now the health care capacity is being expanded between vaccination and Covid care.”

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