India detects new ‘double mutant’ variant as spike in Covid-19 cases, fearing second wave

But in early March, it became clear that the cases were slowly increasing again – and they’ve exploded in recent weeks.

According to data from Johns Hopkins University, India has now reported a total of more than 11.7 million cases and 160,000 related deaths.

“I would say this is the beginning of a second wave,” Randeep Guleria, director of the All India Institute of Medical Sciences, said Wednesday. “It’s something that has already been seen in many European countries; we seem to be following them.”

There are a number of factors – one of which is Covid fatigue and the possibility that people are less cautious due to the decrease in winter infections. “You see that in the community, when you go out, wearing a mask is getting less and less,” said Guleria. “We see crowds, parties, many wedding ceremonies take place in India.”

Another factor could be the emergence of “variants that will come to India from other parts of the world,” he said, noting the strain first discovered in the UK, which has since spread into many Indian countries. states …

Variants and mutations

All viruses evolve over time and sometimes make changes when they multiply, causing mutations. Some mutations have little effect, but others can make the variant easier to transmit or cause infections with more severe symptoms.

Of about 10,787 samples analyzed by the Indian SARS-CoV-2 Consortium on Genomics from 18 states, 771 cases of troubling variants were discovered, most of them the British strain, according to the Department of Health. Thirty-four was the variant first identified in South Africa and one was variant P.1 from Brazil.

While the ministry said these are not correlated with the recent spike in cases, the variants have mostly been discovered in “grave concern” states with the highest rates, including Punjab and Maharashtra. And now double mutations have been reported.

So far this year in Maharashtra, “there has been an increase in the number of samples with the E484Q and L452R mutations,” the ministry said in its press release. They were found in 15-20% of the samples and do not match previously cataloged variants of concern, the ministry said, adding “such mutations allow for immune system escape and increased infectivity.”

It is not uncommon to see multiple mutations in one variant. “All these viruses (variants) that we are dealing with are already mutants,” says virologist T. Jacob John. The species that became widespread worldwide was already different from the first species that originated in Wuhan, China, he added.

How dangerous a mutation is depends on where in the virus it happens. For example, the South African variant has mutations that change the structure of the spike protein, which appear to affect the receptor binding domain – the portion of the spike protein most important for attaching to and infecting cells. Researchers are now investigating whether it can partially help the virus escape the effects of vaccines.

Guleria cautioned that a double mutation was not necessarily a cause for concern, as researchers are still investigating the effect of the mutations.

“They are not clear what the meaning of this is,” he said. “Does it have clinical significance or is it just an observation? And that needs to be linked to epidemiological data, and that’s what’s being done.”

One question is which variants – and which mutations – can circumvent the effects of our existing vaccines.

“If someone was infected with the coronavirus six months ago, that person is immune to the non-mutated coronavirus,” said John. “But is the person still immune to the variants? (That should) be studied.”

India’s vaccination drive

Meanwhile, Indian authorities are working to contain the spike by introducing new restrictions and intensifying the country’s vaccine program.

India administers two vaccines domestically. One of these is Covishield, a vaccine developed by Oxford University and AstraZeneca and produced by the Serum Institute of India, the world’s largest vaccine manufacturer. The other is India’s first domestically developed coronavirus vaccine, Covaxin, which was jointly developed by Bharat Biotech and the government-led Indian Council of Medical Research.

Not only does the Serum Institute of India produce most of the vaccines for India, it is also responsible for many of the vaccines distributed to the rest of the world. In September last year, SII pledged to manufacture and supply 200 million doses for COVAX – a WHO vaccine alliance created to ensure fair access to Covid-19 vaccines.

But SII has had to stop or slow down its exports several times in recent months as global and domestic demand rose sharply.

On January 4, India restricted exports of the AstraZeneca vaccine produced by SII to at least March. “We have only been given a limited license to give and distribute it to the Indian government as they want to prioritize the most vulnerable and needy segments first,” said SII CEO Adar Poonawalla at the time. “The only condition is that we can only supply to the Government of India, we cannot sell it on the private market and we cannot export it.”

On Thursday, Reuters reported that India would likely delay delivery of AstraZeneca vaccines to COVAX, citing UNICEF. According to Reuters, India had temporarily halted all major exports of AstraZeneca footage captured by SII to meet domestic demand.

CNN has reached out to SII, UNICEF and the State Department for comment, but has not yet received a response.

The Interior Ministry also introduced new infection control guidelines on Tuesday, which will be in effect until the end of April. Some of the measures include quickly isolating positive cases and tracing their contacts within 72 hours.

Several cities and states, including Mumbai, Delhi and Odisha, have banned gatherings during Holi, the upcoming festival of colors, on March 28.