India and Pakistan held secret talks to break the Kashmir deadlock

NEW DELHI (Reuters) – Top intelligence officials from India and Pakistan held secret talks in Dubai in January in a new effort to ease military tension over the disputed Himalayan region of Kashmir, people with good knowledge of the matter told Reuters in Delhi.

Ties between the nuclear-armed rivals have been on the ice since a suicide attack on an Indian military convoy in Kashmir in 2019, traced back to Pakistan-based militants that led India to send warplanes to Pakistan.

Later that year, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi withdrew the autonomy of Indian-ruled Kashmir to tighten his grip on the territory, sparking outrage in Pakistan and the weakening of diplomatic ties and suspension of bilateral trade.

But the two governments have reopened a back-channel of diplomacy aimed at a humble roadmap for normalizing ties in the coming months, the people said.

Kashmir has long been a focal point between India and Pakistan, both of which claim the entire region but only partially rule.

Officials from the Indian Research and Analysis wing, the external spy agency and Pakistani Inter-Services Intelligence traveled to Dubai for a meeting facilitated by the United Arab Emirates government, two people said.

The Indian Ministry of Foreign Affairs did not respond to a request for comment. The Pakistani military, which controls the ISI, also did not respond.

But Ayesha Siddiqa, a leading Pakistani defense analyst, said she believed Indian and Pakistani intelligence officials had been meeting in third countries for several months.

“I think there have been meetings in Thailand, in Dubai, in London between people of the highest level,” she said.

‘IT IS FRAUGHT’

Such gatherings have also taken place in the past, especially in times of crisis, but have never been publicly recognized.

“A lot can still go wrong, it is fraught,” said one of the people in Delhi. “That’s why nobody talks about it publicly, we don’t even have a name for it, it’s not a peace process. You can call it a re-engagement, ”said one of them.

Both countries have reasons to seek rapprochement. India has been in an impasse on the border with China since last year and does not want the army to stretch on the Pakistani front.

China ally Pakistan, which is in economic trouble and on an IMF bailout program, cannot afford increased tensions at the Kashmir border for any length of time, experts say. It must also stabilize the Afghan border to the west as the United States pulls back.

“It’s better for India and Pakistan to talk than not to talk, and even better for it to be done quietly than in the spotlight of publicity,” said Myra MacDonald, a former Reuters journalist who has just published a book on India, Pakistan and Pakistan. war. on the borders of Kashmir.

“… But I don’t see it going much further than basic control of tensions, possibly to get both countries through a difficult period – Pakistan needs to address the consequences of the US withdrawal from Afghanistan, while India needs to. facing a much more volatile situation on the disputed border with China. “

SETTING UP THE RETORY

Following the January meeting, India and Pakistan announced that they would stop cross-border firing along the Line of Control (LoC) that divides Kashmir, killing dozens of civilians and maiming many others. That ceasefire will continue, military officials in both countries said.

Both sides have also announced plans to hold elections on their side of Kashmir this year as part of efforts to bring normalcy to a region riven by decades of bloodshed.

The two have also agreed to reverse their rhetoric, the people Reuters spoke to said.

This includes Pakistan dropping its loud objections to Modi to lift Kashmir’s autonomy in August 2019, while Delhi in turn refrains from blaming Pakistan for all the violence on its side of the Line of Control. .

These details have not been previously reported. India has long blamed Pakistan for the Kashmir insurgency, an allegation Pakistan has denied.

“There is a recognition that attacks will take place in Kashmir, there have been discussions on how to deal with them and not let this attempt be derailed by the next attack,” one said.

However, there is no grand plan yet to resolve the 74-year-old Kashmir dispute. Both sides are trying to ease tensions to pave the way for broad engagement, all the people who spoke to Reuters said.

“Pakistan is moving from a geostrategic domain to a geoeconomic domain,” Raoof Hasan, special assistant to Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan, told Reuters.

“Peace, both within and around its neighbors, is an important part of making that happen.”