KAFR KANNA, Israel – Mansour Abbas, a conservative Muslim, is an unlikely political partner for the leaders of the Jewish state.
He is a supporter of political Islam. He leads an Arab party descended from the same religious current that spawned the militant Hamas movement. And for most of his political life, he has never considered supporting the right-leaning parties that have led Israel for the past four decades.
But if Mr. Abbas gets his way, he could help decide the next Israeli prime minister after next month’s general election, even if it means bringing a right-wing alliance to power. Tired of the peripheral role traditionally played by the Arab parties in Israel, he hopes his small Islamist group, Raam, will balance power after the election and prove an inevitable partner to any Jewish leader who has a want to form a coalition.
“We can work with anyone,” Mr. Abbas said in an interview about the campaign trail in Kafr Kanna, a small Arab town in northern Israel where the Christian Bible says Jesus turned water into wine. In the past, “Arab politicians have been spectators in the political process in Israel,” he said. Now he added, “Arabs are looking for a real role in Israeli politics.”
Mr Abbas’ shift is part of a wider transformation taking place within the Arab political world in Israel.
Accelerated by the election campaign, two trends converge: On the one hand, Arab politicians and voters increasingly believe that in order to improve the lives of Arabs in Israel, they must seek power within the system rather than exerting external pressure. Regardless, mainstream Israeli parties realize they need to attract Arab voters to win a very close election – and some are ready to work with Arab parties as potential coalition partners.
Both trends are born more of political pragmatism than dogma. And while the moment has the potential to give Arab voters real power, it could backfire: Mr. Abbas will divide the Arab vote, as will the overtures of Jewish-led parties, and both factors would increase the number of Arab lawmakers in the next Parliament.
But after a strong showing in the last election, in which Arab parties won a record 15 seats, became the third-largest party in parliament with 120 seats and were still excluded from the governing coalition, some are looking for other options.
“After more than a decade with Netanyahu in power, some Arab politicians have proposed a new approach: if you can’t beat him, join him,” said Mohammad Magadli, a well-known Arab television host. “This approach is daring, but also very dangerous.”
Palestinian citizens of Israel make up more than a fifth of the Israeli population. Since the state’s inception in 1948, they have always sent a handful of Arab lawmakers to parliament. But those lawmakers have always struggled to make an impact.
Jewish leaders have not viewed Arab parties as acceptable coalition partners – some on the right accuse them of enemies of the state and are pushing for Arab lawmakers to be banned from parliament. For their part, the Arab parties generally felt more comfortable in the opposition and rarely supported center-left parties whose influence has declined since the turn of the century.
In some ways, this dynamic has deteriorated in recent years. In 2015, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu cited the threat of a relatively high Arab turnout – “Arab voters are flocking to polling stations,” he warned on election day – as scaring his base to vote. In 2018, his government passed new legislation that lowered the status of Arab and formally described Israel as the nation-state of the Jewish people only. And in 2020, even its centrist rival, Benny Gantz, refused to form a government based on the support of Arab parties.
But a year later, as Israel moves into its fourth election in two years of political stalemate, this paradigm is rapidly changing.
Mr. Netanyahu is now arguing strongly for the Arab electorate. Following his example, Yair Lapid, a centrist candidate for the premiership, said he could form a coalition with Arab lawmakers despite belittling them earlier in his career. Two left-wing parties have pledged to work with an alliance of Arab lawmakers to advance Arab interests.
Polls show that a majority of Palestinian citizens of Israel want their lawmakers to play a role in government. Mr Abbas said Arab politicians should gain influence by supporting parties that promise to improve Arab society. Another prominent Arab politician, Ali Salam, the mayor of Nazareth, Israel’s largest Arab city, has expressed support for Mr. Netanyahu, arguing that despite his previous comments, the prime minister is sincere about improving Arab lives.
“In the Israeli political system, it was a sin to cooperate with Arab parties or even Arab voters,” said Nahum Barnea, one of Israel’s best-known columnists. But Mr Netanyahu has suddenly made the Arabs “a legitimate partner to any political maneuver.”
“In a way, he opened a box that I hope can’t be closed from now on,” added Mr. Barnea.
Mr. Netanyahu’s transition was one of the most remarkable. He has pledged more resources for Arab communities and to fight endemic crime in Arab neighborhoods. And he’s started calling himself “Yair’s father” – a reference to his son, Yair, who also lovingly riffs on the Arabic practice of referring to someone as the parent of their first-born child.
At a turning point in January, he announced a ‘new era’ for Arab Israelis at a rally in Nazareth and apologized for his earlier comments about Arab voters. “I apologized then and my apologies today,” he said, before adding that critics “twisted my words.”
Critics say Mr. Netanyahu is courting Arab voters because he needs them to win, not because he genuinely cares about them. This month, he also agreed to include in his next coalition a far-right party whose leader wants to disqualify many Arabs from running for parliament. And he has ruled out the formation of a government based on Mr Abbas’ support.
Next month’s election is expected to be as close as that of the previous three.
Mr. Netanyahu is currently on trial on corruption charges, and if he remains in power, he could pursue laws that shield him from prosecution.
“What Netanyahu cares about is Netanyahu,” said Afif Abu Much, a prominent commentator on Arab politics in Israel.
Likewise, Arab politicians and voters have not thrown off all their discomfort with Zionism and Israeli policies in the occupied territories. But there is a growing realization that the problems facing the Arab community – gang violence, poverty and discrimination in access to housing and land – will not be resolved without Arab politicians shaping policies at the highest level.
“I want different results, so I have to change the approach,” said Mr Abbas. “The crises in Arab society have reached a boiling point.”
Still, Mr. Abbas could easily fail and undermine the little influence Arab citizens currently have.
To be active on his new platform, Mr. Abbas is withdrawing from an alliance of Arab parties, the Joint List, whose other members are not convinced they are cooperating under Israeli law. And this split could weaken the collective power of Arab lawmakers.
Support for Mr Abbas’s party is currently hovering around the 3.25 percent threshold that parties need to gain access to Parliament. Even if his party is above the line, there is no guarantee that a candidate for the prime minister will need or seek the party’s support to secure the 61 seats needed to form a coalition.
Mr. Netanyahu, despite his earlier incitement against Arabs, was also able to pull Arab voters away from Arab parties, diminishing their influence. More could remain at home, disillusioned by the divisions within the Arab parties and their inability to bring about meaningful change, or to boycott a state whose authority they reject.
“I don’t believe in or trust any of them,” said Siham Ighbariya, a 40-year-old housewife. She gained notoriety for her quest for justice for her husband and son, who were murdered at home in 2012 by an unknown murderer.
“I’ve covered them all,” said Ms. Ighbariya of the Arab political class. “And nothing happened.”
For some Palestinians, participation in the Israeli government is a betrayal of the Palestinian cause – a criticism Mr Abbas understands. “I have a deep personal conflict within me,” he acknowledged. “We have been in conflict for 100 years, a bloody and difficult conflict.”
But it was time to move on, he added. “You have to be able to look into the future and build a better future for everyone, both Arabs and Jews.”