“We find ourselves Ten months after one of the most disastrous global health events of our lives began, ‘Stanford University immunologist and bio-threat expert David Relman wrote in November,’ and, disturbingly, we still don’t know how it started. That lingering uncertainty is paramount: the precise origin of the SARS-CoV-2 outbreak, once resolved, will enable us to better prepare for future pandemic threats. But finding out what really happened requires careful and coordinated scientific research, which is only now starting.
In the meantime, we must speculate. A long essay by Nicholson Baker published in New York Magazine, stated that the pandemic started with a laboratory accident; and while the article is tarred as one irresponsible, misinformed and one-sided presentation even the most ardent critics to admit that the possibility of a lab leak cannot be ruled out with certainty.
There are now two major efforts to investigate where Covid-19 came from: one set up by the World Health Organization and the other organized by a leading medical journal, The Lancet. The studies are expected to take months or even years to complete, and given the many challenges involved, they may never yield conclusive answers. However, it is already clear that both are affected by a lack of clear procedures to manage conflicts of interest and questionable independence. Now it is imperative that governments and the scientific community act quickly to improve it.
The problem begins with the nature of the studies, which must first determine whether the SARS-CoV-2 virus has passed directly from wild animals to the population (the most likely scenario, according to most experts) or perhaps escaped from a laboratory environment. But many of the people most qualified to research this question – those with the most relevant technical knowledge – also happen to be those who work in those same lab settings, or have close professional ties with those who do.
In other words, it’s the very people who could be blamed (either directly or as part of a research community) if the virus were ever traced to a lab.
This fundamental tension is not at all uncommon in the convening of expert committees, whether by governments or otherwise. Decades ago, the scientists who had relationships with tobacco companies were among those with the best understanding of the effects of smoking on public health, but their inclusion on health advisory committees was problematic and helped motivate more rigorous approaches to dealing with conflicts of interest. Fortunately, governments around the world have a long track record of implementing these approaches; and it is certainly possible to tap into relevant expertise through formal questions or testimonials without including those in conflict as investigators themselves. Unfortunately, it is not clear whether any of the leading studies into the origins of the pandemic is following the relevant best practices.
For example, both studies include Peter Daszak, a disease ecologist and president of the EcoHealth Alliance, a research nonprofit with a history of doing research on SARS-related coronaviruses and their effects on humans, including collaborative work at Wuhan Institute of Virology. The Wuhan Institute just so happens to be the only lab in China allowed to work with the world’s most dangerous pathogens, and it is located at seemingly ground zero of the current outbreak.
If there were a lab leak – and again, most experts don’t believe the available evidence points in that direction – then both the Wuhan Institute and its US partner would be on a short list of candidates to investigate. Obviously, no one with any affiliation to any of the organizations can play a formal role in a truly independent investigation into the origins of the pandemic. (Of course, their expert input can and should be obtained through other means.)
It’s also worth noting that very early in the crisis, Daszak expressed certainty that the disease originated in the wild. Last winter, just after the WHO first named the virus, he drew up a formal statement to “vigorously condemn conspiracy theories that suggest Covid-19 has no natural origin” and to “reach” colleagues in Wuhan and across China. More than two dozen other scientists would sign that letter, which was published by The Lancet on February 19, 2020. Emails obtained through the Freedom of Information Act suggest that Daszak organized the effort from the start.