I am concerned that people will be reinfected by some of the new strains of coronavirus

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We will never be done with this damn pandemic. Ever.

Today is Groundhog Day, right? Well, let me quote the viral prediction, “It gets cold, it turns gray, and you’ll be with it for the rest of your life.”

Being stupid, it did not automatically occur to me that a mutated strain of the virus that can evade antibodies produced by a first generation version of a vaccine can also evade antibodies produced by a first generation version of the virus self. If you became infected with the common coronavirus a few months ago and got over it, there is no logical reason why you would necessarily be protected from infection by a new strain that has evolved enough that your body’s immune system can no longer survive. ‘recognizes’. According to Fauci, that is exactly what is happening in South Africa. People who had COVID 1.0 get COVID 2.0 thanks to the variant that arose there. Watch a few minutes here.

It’s not just South Africa where people are apparently getting re-infected. Manaus, a city in Brazil, was destroyed by COVID last year. The reward for weathering a ferocious outbreak is herd immunity among the survivors – unless the virus mutates to the point where it is in fact a new pathogen, in which case another major outbreak is underway. That’s what Manaus seems to be dealing with right now:

Even in a year of terrible suffering, what is happening in Brazil stands out. In the rainforest city of Manaus, home to 2 million people, bodies are reported to be dropped into mass graves as soon as they can be dug. Hospitals are running out of oxygen, and people with potentially treatable cases of COVID-19 die from asphyxiation. This nature and scale of mortality has not been seen since the first months of the pandemic …

Data seemed to support the idea that herd immunity in Manaus was near. In Science this month, researchers mapped out last year’s takeover of the virus: in April, blood tests showed that 4.8 percent of the urban population had antibodies against SARS-CoV-2. By June, that number had risen to 52.5 percent. Because people who become infected don’t always test positive for antibodies, the researchers estimate that in June about two-thirds of the city was infected. In November the estimate was about 76 percent. In The Lancet, a team of Brazilian researchers noted this week that, even if these estimates were widely separated, infection on this scale “should confer important population immunity to prevent a larger outbreak.” Indeed, it seemed. The city was largely able to reopen and remained open throughout the winter with a low number of COVID-19 cases.

Either scientists have grossly overestimated the proportion of the population that received immunity from the first outbreak, or the new Brazilian variant is burning by people recovered from plain COVID. Best scenario for us: We may need vaccine booster shots several times a year because new strains emerge here or abroad and start spreading among the population, including those who have had the disease before. (Moderna is already developing a booster for the South African variety, and Pfizer is “laying the groundwork” for doing this if their current vaccine eventually struggles against that strain.) Worst case scenario, a super-contagious strain emerges and is starting to tear through America at lightning speed, as the pharma scrambles to develop a booster and distribute it, bringing us back to square one for herd immunity.

We may not need a ‘permanent’ vaccine infrastructure to make this happen, but a short-term mobilization and everything back to normal by September is increasingly like wishful thinking.

In fact, the Times reports today that the highly contagious British strain of the virus may be evolving to withstand current vaccines. Pfizer and Moderna recently reported that they believe their products are just as effective against the current UK variety as against the regular COVID. But what about the “new” British variant?

Scientists suspect that the B.1.351 [South African] The partial escape of the variant from vaccines is largely due to a single mutation called E484K. Experiments indicate that the E484K mutation makes it more difficult for antibodies to grasp the virus and prevent it from entering cells.

Now it appears that some B.1.1.7 coronaviruses in Great Britain also have the E484K mutation…

[I]According to a report posted online Tuesday, Rajiv Gupta, a virologist at the University of Cambridge, and his colleagues reported an experiment they conducted to answer exactly this question. They combined the E484K mutation with other key mutations found in the B.1.1.7 variant, initially found in Great Britain. The addition of the E484K mutation made it difficult for antibodies to block the viruses. The researchers wrote that they “observed a significant loss of neutralizing activity.”

If you liked British super corona, you will love British super super corona. Do you now see why Fauci and the CDC have been encouraging people to do double masking? It’s not because Fauci is a bummer who won’t rest until we all walk around in moon suits. It’s because the foreign strains are already circulating here and it seems unlikely that we’ll get a significant number of people vaccinated before they do a lot of damage. If super corona spreads more easily than corona, it makes sense to add extra filtering to your airways to avoid inhaling them.

I’ll leave you with a hopeful message from former FDA chief Scott Gottlieb, who thinks SARS-CoV-2 is mutating slowly enough to stay ahead of an aggressive vaccination regimen. Importantly, he notes, although the South African and Brazilian species seem capable of re-infecting humans, the jury is still out on whether they are more contagious than plain COVID. The British variety appears to have that advantage, as it has quickly become the dominant species in the UK, but the other ominous species may not spread as quickly. They are just a bit more difficult to deal with common antibodies. Exit Question: Why is it reportedly going to take the FDA “weeks” to decide whether Moderna can fill its vaccine vials with 15 doses instead of 10 as it wants? That’s an immediate 50 percent boost in production. And time is of the essence.

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