It always seemed unlikely that Kentucky Senator Mitch McConnell, the Republican Senate leader, would vote to condemn the disgraced ex-president who, even from exile in Mar-a-Lago, controls most of his party.
But the justification McConnell offered when he announced his vote for acquittal on Saturday was an act of political cynicism and a wistful evasion of the key issue the Senate had to decide: whether Donald Trump bears responsibility for the looting of the Capitol Building. 6 January.
McConnell has already said what he thinks about the facts: Trump is guilty of sedition, at least by a logical definition of the word.
“The crowd was fed lies,” McConnell said in a Senate speech last month. “They were provoked by the president and other powerful people, and they tried to use fear and violence to stop a specific procedure” – President Biden’s election statement – “that they didn’t like.”
For the usually sphinx-like McConnell, that was a moment of astonishing clarity – as close to an act of courage as we’ve seen recently in a party whose members are alternately captivated or terrified by Trump.
But McConnell then backed out and voted to avoid holding Trump accountable – not because he is innocent, but on limited procedural grounds.
“Although it is a close call, I am convinced impeachment measures are primarily a tool to remove, and therefore we have no jurisdiction,” he wrote to other senators before the vote.
Although Trump was impeached while he was president, McConnell argued, he cannot be brought to trial after the end of his term.
Most legal scholars, conservatives and liberals alike, believe this argument to be incorrect. Over the centuries, the Senate has tried at least two officials who were no longer in power. And last week, the Senate confirmed those precedents in a two-part vote of 56 to 44.
The motive for McConnell’s withdrawal is clear: He wants to give his Republican colleagues a cover story, a technical excuse to vote against impeachment so that it doesn’t keep haunting them. Most Republican voters remain loyal to Trump, often fiercely.
But the reason McConnell gives is so weak that it is unlikely to hold up well in the eyes of history.
McConnell’s evasion wasn’t the only feeble excuse GOP senators looked for when looking for reasons to acquit a suspect, many of whom privately believe to be guilty.
Some who engaged in old-fashioned tit for tat: Sure, Trump got the crowd rallying, but haven’t some Democrats done the same when they made excuses for violence on the fringes of Black Lives Matter protests?
“You had a summer when people across the country were doing similar things,” said Senator Roy Blunt of Missouri. So who cares that Trump is encouraging the people who looted the Capitol and threatened to kill the vice president?
Equally weak was the claim that the accusation was “ just political, ” a product of hatred for Trump and his followers.
“This is about humiliating those who supported President Trump,” Tennessee Senator Marsha Blackburn said.
Leave aside that 10 House Republicans, including Rep. Liz Cheney of Wyoming, found the allegations so serious that they joined Democrats to vote to impeach.
Then there’s the First Amendment argument: the idea that holding Trump accountable for the effect of his words is a violation of his rights.
That just isn’t right. The First Amendment protects Citizen Trump’s right to speak his mind. It doesn’t protect former President Trump from losing his job – or keeping it again – if Congress decides he has committed crimes against the constitution. And the First Amendment does not protect incitement to violence.
And that brings us to the substantive charge against Trump – the only ones Republicans are trying to avoid.
The evidence has made it clear that Trump wasn’t just cheering on the crowd; as they raced through the Capitol, he waited hours before telling them to go home.
The president’s defenders want senators to judge Trump’s guilt for inciting sedition according to the standard of criminal law, which requires evidence that he consciously and directly caused the riot.
But impeachment is not a criminal procedure. It is the process by which Congress can remove a high-ranking official who has violated his oath and disqualify him from holding office in the future.
The senators who voted for acquittal must be clear on whether they think Trump turned on the crowd or not. McConnell said Trump was “practically and morally responsible” for the events of January 6, but let him go on a technical point. Most other Republicans haven’t even gone that far yet.
History will withhold their votes as their judgments on Trump’s words and actions – not as a decision on whether officials are exempt from impeachment lawsuits for actions in their last month in power.
They should consider what their short-term political calculation might look like in years to come, including for voters in the upcoming elections.
Trump on Saturday claimed his acquittal as a victory and promised his followers that he would remain politically active. “Our historic, patriotic and beautiful movement to make America great again has only just begun,” he said.
In the coming months, new evidence may emerge to show whether Trump cooperated directly with the extremists who attacked the Capitol. As we heard on Saturday, Trump didn’t seem concerned that members of Congress were in danger that day.
And if Trump survives all investigations into his behavior, maintains his grip on the GOP, and wins his party’s presidential nomination in 2024, his Senate loyalists will bear the responsibility – even if they pretend they weren’t.
McConnell, not a fan of Trump, appears to be betting that the former president will disappear naturally and that his hold on the Republican Party will weaken. He and the GOP must hope they are right.