A new variant of the coronavirus has been discovered in the UK and scientists believe it may be more contagious than the more other lines of the virus that are more common around the world. So how important is this? The short answer: We don’t quite know yet.
What we know
On December 8 Scientific reports, scientists and public health experts saw a map showing an area in South East England showing a resurgence in cases. The genetic analysis of the virus that spread there showed that it was unexpectedly different from other viruses in circulation elsewhere.
There is concern that the increase in the number of cases may be because this variant is more transmissible than others. That is not entirely clear yet. But several European countries have now done so blocked trip in an attempt to keep the new variant out.
Are mutations bad?
Not necessary. Viruses are constantly mutating, and the coronavirus is no exception. Scientists can track the spread of the virus in part by sequencing its genome. If two people have COVID and their viruses are identical or close to the same, they probably got it from the same place. If each of them has a different variant of the virus, they probably got it from different sources. You can see a gigantic family tree of all coronavirus mutations in the world here.
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So in that sense, mutations are happening all the time, but so far that really hasn’t changed what the coronavirus is or how we should respond to it.
Is this mutation worse than the others?
It’s too soon to tell. The new variant, called B.1.1.7, is now being studied to determine whether it differs from other coronaviruses in significant ways. Maybe it is more transferable than others. We don’t have any proof of that yet, so we’ll have to wait and see.
Will it be able to evade the vaccine?
Again, we don’t know yet. B.1.1.7 has 17 sites where the genome differs from its closest relatives. About half of that is in the spike protein, which is a concern.
The mRNA vaccines that just rolled out causes our body to make the spike protein, and then our immune system responds to that protein and prepares to recognize future invaders carrying the same protein.
In theory, changes in the spike protein could cause it to evade the vaccine. But that depends on the specifics of how different the new spike protein is and whether our immune system can still recognize it. We just don’t have an answer to this question yet.
If it is really more transferable how can we stop it?
The new variant has been circulating in England since at least September 20, so closing the borders is unlikely to stop its spread completely. There is a good chance that the variant has already made it in other countries. But these limitations can reduce the number of people with the new variant entering those countries.
Otherwise, we must continue our efforts – cgetting a highly transmissible coronavirus is exactly what we’ve been trying to do all along, isn’t it? Masks and distance and ventilation would do that still matters when this new variant comes into play; they would just matter more.
Trevor Bedford, a scientist studying virus mutations, noted on Twitter that the British mutation “deserves a lot of attention,” but it was unlikely to interfere too much with the introduction of a vaccine. Most circulating viruses do not have significant mutations in their peak proteins. If one of the variants is more common and proves to be able to evade the vaccine, we need to adjust the vaccine accordingly.
Remember, there is no conclusive evidence that it is less responsive to the vaccine or that it causes more serious illness. It too seems transferable, but that question has not been studied very well yet. The experts discussing the UK variant seem to be keeping a close eye on it, but don’t think it’s time to panic.