What are the implications of LeBron James ‘sprained ankle for the Los Angeles Lakers’ title defense and their hopes of winning a fifth MVP?
After trying to overcome the injury he sustained in the second quarter of Saturday’s loss to the Atlanta Hawks, LeBron withdrew from the game and was later diagnosed with a sprained ankle on the top after an MRI. While there is no specific timeline for James’s return, a sprained ankle is often an injury lasting several weeks.
Can the Lakers, already playing without fellow All-Star Anthony Davis due to a calf strain and Achilles tendon in his right leg, bolster their roster ahead of Thursday’s trade deadline? And how will LeBron’s absence affect the MVP race? Let’s answer the most important questions after James’s injury.
How long could LeBron be without?
Without more details on the severity of James’ sprained ankle, it’s hard to pinpoint exactly how long he could be free. When Jeff Stotts of InStreetClothes.com wrote about injury history during the 2018 NBA Finals, he found that the typical high ankle sprain caused players to miss 10 games. However, the player he wrote about, Golden State Warriors All-Star Klay Thompson, didn’t miss a single game and played after two days off between getting the injury in Game 1 and Game 3 afterward.
LeBron’s first attempt to stay on the field after the injury (he even tripled on the next possession) recalled his strong history of playing with more common ankle sprains, involving a different set of ligaments. As Stotts noted on Twitter on Saturday, his database showed that James only missed a total of three games with eight previous ankle sprains.
In this case, there are reasons for the Lakers to be more cautious about LeBron’s health, especially when compared to Thompson’s desire to make a quick return to the NBA Finals. Where the Lakers finish in the Western Conference standings is less important than getting their stars healthy for the postseason.
How far could the Lakers fall in the standings?
Saturday’s defeat, which hit a four-game win streak for the Lakers since the All-Star break, tied them with the Phoenix Suns for second place in the West, 2.5 games behind the NBA leader. Utah Jazz. (Phoenix is technically ahead of the game due to the fact that it has a better win rate with one less win and one less loss.)
Two games behind are the LA Clippers, who have lost five of their last seven games. And the Lakers are just 2.5 games ahead of the Denver Nuggets and Portland Trail Blazers, currently ranked fifth in the West. So if James misses the next two weeks while Davis stays out of the lineup, he’s not expected to be re-evaluated until the end of next week and needs to improve his fitness before returning to the game action, it’s entirely possible that the Lakers are alone. from the top four of the conference at the time.
The remaining Lakers fought hard on defense on Saturday, scoring a run in the fourth quarter after outscoring 22-12 in the third period, but couldn’t find enough offense to come back from an initial four-run deficit when LeBron left the court. left. . While the Lakers have prepared for this scenario to some extent by adding Montrezl Harrell and Dennis Schroder in the final season to make them a little less dependent on Davis and James to score, there’s a lot they can do to make two of the best players in the league. league.
Over the next two weeks, the Lakers’ schedule alternates between low wins and tough matchups. They will face the Suns in Phoenix and two of the best teams in the East (the Philadelphia 76ers and the Milwaukee Bucks) in another four-game home stay. Sprinkled with more favorable matchups in New Orleans and at home against the Cleveland Cavaliers and Orlando Magic, who are on their way to the lottery.
The Lakers would certainly like to have at least one of their stars back for an “away game” at Staples Center against the Clippers on April 4, two weeks after Sunday, which could prove significant in terms of rankings. Western playoffs. Still, I don’t think nasty scenarios like the Lakers falling into the top six are realistic unless the stars are lost much longer than expected. Before LeBron’s injury, FiveThirtyEight projections gave the Lakers a six-game kiss over the Blazers and Dallas Mavericks, tied for sixth-best projection in the West with an average of 40 wins.
Possible help with the deadline?
The Lakers’ attempts to add to their roster via trade are complicated by being subject to a strict limit on the luxury tax platform, as they used their mid-level exception to sign Harrell as a free agent. The Lakers can add up to $ 1.9 million in salary in a transaction and must weigh this against the ability to use that money to sign free agents in the takeover market.
It is possible that the Lakers will get a higher salary back by including their current players in a trade. For example, a package from Wesley Matthews ($ 3.6 million) and Alfonzo McKinnie ($ 1.8 million) would allow the Lakers to bring back a player making about $ 6 million after taking into account the need to to sign two players. list. (The Lakers currently have two open roster places after the expiration of the second 10-day contract for Damian Jones, who started for them in the middle.)
The other complication for the Lakers is that they don’t have much to offer in a trade. The only choice for the first round that the Lakers can negotiate is in 2027, and their best choice for the second round is in 2023. Realistically, the Lakers probably don’t have the ability to add the type of player that would really help them achieve the control absence. by Davis and James. The Lakers’ seasonal additions are more likely through acquisitions.
MVP career hit by injuries
On the All-Star break, LeBron and Joel Embiid were the two favorites to win the NBA Most Valuable Player award, an award that James has set out to claim without a secret for the first time since 2012-2013. Now both players have been sidelined with injuries when Embiid gets a bone bruise on his left knee.
The impact of injuries is a major reason why it’s dangerous to jump to MVP conclusions too early in the season. Staying on the field is an important part of value within an individual regular season. Historically, 10 lost games were the cutoff for MVP considerations. The last player to miss more than 10 games in an MVP season was Allen Iverson in 2000-01 (11). Before that, you have to go back to Bill Walton in 1977-78 (an unprecedented 34) for the above example. (No MVP between Walton and Iverson missed more than seven games.)
At the same time, the importance of games played as MVP criteria could fade a bit as teams put more emphasis on resting their stars for the playoffs. During the first 10 years of the 2000s, the average MVP played 96% of his team’s games. In the past five seasons, that dropped to 92%, with each of the past three (James Harden in 2017-18 and Giannis Antetokounmpo in the past two seasons) missing the equivalent of 10 games.
Regardless, there’s little doubt that James and Embiid who are injured help the MVP bid from Nikola Jokic, the other top contender based on advanced stats. And it continues to open the door for the last two winners, Antetokounmpo and Harden, whose chances were ruled out earlier in the season. More importantly, the injuries remind us that we shouldn’t be in a rush to pick an MVP before the season is almost over.