How close are we to immunity? The data is clear enough

According to state data, more than half of Texans have recovered from the coronavirus or have been fully vaccinated as of Monday.

When about 75% of us have immunity, we will have achieved what is sometimes called “herd immunity,” when the virus can barely spread, even if there are no security measures such as physical aloofness and masks.

Herd immunity is a “calculated number based on the infectivity of a virus,” said Dr. Paul Klotman, president of Baylor College of Medicine.

For example, the herd’s immunity to the highly contagious measles virus is 95%. For regular COVID-19 it is closer to 65%.

The more contagious variants cause the true herd immunity to this pandemic to be about 75%, Klotman said.

“I think we’re getting close,” he added, pointing to local data.

More than half a million people in the Greater Houston area, which consists of nine counties, have officially signed a contract with COVID-19 since Monday.

The actual number is closer to 2.4 million, based on numerous “prevalence” studies, including a CDC study, which shows that for each positive COVID-19 several others have not been counted.

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About 1.5 million people in the region have been fully vaccinated. Together, that’s about 3.8 million of the 7.2 million people living in Greater Houston, or about 52%.

“They will overlap a little bit” in the numbers, Klotman said.

The data is approximate, but also reflects the status data.

Of Texas’s 29 million, nearly six million were fully vaccinated on Monday, and about 11 million contracted the virus (officially, 2.5 million tested positive).

That’s nearly 17 million Texans with immunity or about 57%. When we have recovered or vaccinated about 22 million people, we will have achieved “herd immunity.”

The number of Texans vaccinated every week is rapidly increasing and Dr. Klotman said we are on track to reach that high level of immunity by the end of June.

“We’re coming,” said Dr. Klotman. “About two months.”

When asked on Fox News Sunday if he thought Texas had achieved herd immunity, Governor Greg Abbott said:

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“If you look at the senior population, for example, more than 70% of our seniors have received a vaccination syringe. More than 50% of 50-65 year olds have received a vaccination shot. “

“I don’t know what herd immunity is,” added the governor. “But if you add that to the people who have acquired immunity, it looks like you can get really close to herd immunity.”