How a ‘stunning’ blunder caused a dangerous Brexit deadlock

Photographer: Paul Faith / Bloomberg

Thirty years ago, during Northern Ireland’s protracted sectarian conflict, gunmen ruined an attempted murder of a young academic in Belfast.

Adrian Guelke survived, still lives in the city, and last week watched in amazement as the European Union fueled the tensions that nearly killed him by threatening the part of the Brexit deal that aims to restore fragile peace. protect the region.

Guelke, now a professor emeritus of politics at Queen’s University, Belfast, described the bloc’s threat to control the flow of coronavirus vaccines to Northern Ireland as a “stunning” blunder.

“Pandora’s box has been opened,” he said in a telephone interview.

The EU may have pulled back, but inadvertently allowed the unionists of Northern Ireland, who want to remain part of the UK, to rekindle a separate and much bigger controversy that should have settled Brexit for good: the status of the border with mainland Britain.

The feud threatens not only to sour the EU’s fragile post-Brexit relationship with the UK, but also become a focal point for dormant unhappiness among union members over the deal Boris Johnson signed despite their opposition.

Biden warning

While there is little sign that the crisis will immediately rekindle the utter conflict between Northern Ireland’s Protestant unionists, the Catholic nationalists of a minority, who want it to be united with the Republic of Ireland and British forces, history shows how Events in the county can quickly spiral out of control.

How Johnson, the EU and the unionists of Northern Ireland react in the coming days and months could tip the balance. US President Joe Biden has already warned that the Northern Ireland peace process must be protected.

“No doubt there are people out there who see an opportunity to restart paramilitary activities,” said Reg Empey, a former leader of the Ulster Unionist Party. “It only takes one madman.”

Read more: How Brexit Deal Seeks to Solve Irish Border Problem: QuickTake

Unlike the rest of the UK, after Brexit, Northern Ireland in fact remained in the EU’s customs union and internal market – a crucial concession Johnson made to the bloc to secure Britain’s orderly departure .

By keeping the land border with Ireland clear of checkpoints, both sides hoped to avoid a return to the era of the Troubles. But it came at a price: Goods arriving from the rest of the UK would be checked and given additional paperwork when crossing the Irish Sea from mainland Britain.

Border delays

The Democratic Unionist Party, Northern Ireland’s largest political party, was against the so-called protocol because it treats the province differently from the rest of the UK. But it has faced the consequences: delays and disruption at the border, which is proving unpopular with voters.

Retailers such as John Lewis have discontinued sales to the region. Marks & Spencer Group Plc has pulled approximately 300 of its products from its Northern Ireland stores and images of empty food racks have flooded social media.

Under increasing pressure from even more hardline loyalists, the DUP had already pressured the British Prime Minister to scrap the protocol. Initially, Johnson brushed off the DUP and dismissed the delays and shortages as teething troubles.

Blinded

That all changed late on January 29, when Northern Ireland got caught up in the EU’s vaccine crisis. Suddenly, however weak, the block raised the prospect of returning control to the 500-kilometer border that runs from near Derry in the north to Dundalk in the south.

“They pulled the carpet from under the defenders of the Protocol,” said Guelke, who was shot by loyalist paramilitaries who falsely believed he had ties to the Irish republican movement.

London officials were blinded. A person with knowledge of the situation said they were shocked that the EU had not appreciated the sensitivities surrounding the protocol and the peace it was supposed to protect.

The next day, ministers including Michael Gove of the Cabinet Office and Northern Ireland Minister Brandon Lewis held crisis talks with Irish Foreign Secretary Simon Coveney. During the video call, they agreed that they needed an emergency meeting with the EU to raise awareness of the dangers of the Commission’s actions. Meanwhile, ministers have publicly downplayed the seriousness of the situation.

Johnson threat

On Wednesday, Johnson was confronted in parliament by a member of the DUP who demanded his commitment to the United Kingdom. The prime minister threatened to suspend parts of the Brexit deal in the same way that the EU had, if necessary to end controls on goods crossing the Irish Sea.

That night, Gove, Lewis and the leaders of the DUP, as well as their political opponents Sinn Fein, presented their cases directly to Commission Vice President Maros Sefcovic.

The conversation during another Zoom conversation was described as being direct by a person familiar with the matter. Gove demanded that the EU postpone the implementation of full controls on food, medicine and packages until 2023 to reduce delays at the border – but Sefcovic objected.

Based on that meeting, British officials say they doubt whether the Commission really understands the extent to which it plays with fire in Northern Ireland.

‘Dangerous place’

Private EU officials, freely admitting that the bloc blundered badly, suspect Johnson is using the vaccine crisis as an opportunity to make concessions to the protocol’s operation. Few expect him to try to drop the deal outright.

There are also tensions on the British side. While union members want the entire protocol to be dropped, Johnson and his team have not given the EU a deadline to comply with the UK’s demands. They just want the block to take seriously the need to address the problems with the protocol and hope the row over vaccines will shake up Brussels. That may disappoint the DUP.

“We are in a dangerous place right now,” said Edward Burke, assistant professor of International Relations at the University of Nottingham, who is researching the effect of Brexit on the British-Irish security relationship.

Unionists and loyalists are not to feel as if London or Dublin were listening to their concerns, ”he said. “And the template in Northern Ireland over the decades, unfortunately, is that violence or the threat of violence is winning the attention and money of both governments.”

‘Threatening behavior’

Days after the EU’s misstep, local and European authorities withdrew their inspectors from the ports of Larne and Belfast, after “an increase in sinister and threatening behavior”, according to the local council.

However, the police insist that there is no evidence that organized loyalist paramilitary groups are behind these threats, and they are still not convinced how to take them seriously.

There is a risk that events in Northern Ireland are in the habit of escalating. For example, in 2013, the decision by Belfast City Hall to stop flying the UK flag sparked unrest, which was then reinforced by the annual demonstrations of Protestant groups. That in turn sparked the worst sectarian violence since the 1990s, paralyzing Belfast for much of that summer.

“If it wasn’t for the pandemic, I think we would have seen big demonstrations here,” Empey said. “The move from Brussels last week – I couldn’t tell you how bad a mistake that was.”

– With help from Kitty Donaldson and Ian Wishart