According to UCLA Fielding School of Public Health researchers, implementing a nationwide mask mandate, coupled with additional public health measures, could reduce the spread of the coronavirus to essentially zero and have a potential $ 1 trillion impact on US GDP.
The team’s research “makes it clear that even as vaccines are developed and new variants, such as B.1.7.7, are discovered, the power to protect ourselves remains in our hands, as individuals,” said study co-author Anne Rimoin , a UCLA Fielding School professor of epidemiology.
“Wearing a mask is one of the simplest, most effective, and cheapest ways to do just that – and it has been proven by the history of epidemiology over the past century, dating back to the 1918-19 flu pandemic and even before. ,” ‘ she said.
“Reducing the spread of disease requires two things: limiting the contacts of infected individuals by physical distance and other measures and reducing the likelihood of transmission by contact,” said study co-author Christina Ramirez, professor of biostatistics at Fielding School. that wearing a mask reduces contact-by-contact transmittance by reducing the transfer of infected respiratory particles in both laboratory and clinical contexts. ”
The findings – published in the January edition of the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, a peer-reviewed journal – were the work of an international team of 19 specialists from UCLA and more than a dozen other universities and research centers, including Oxford University , the University of Cape Town, Peking University, the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and the University of San Francisco.
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R0, pronounced ‘R zero’, is a mathematical term that indicates how contagious an infectious disease is. It is also referred to as the reproduction number. Because an infection is passed on to new people, it reproduces itself. in turn, could add $ 1 trillion to US GDP, the authors said.
“When used in conjunction with widespread testing, locating contacts, quarantining anyone who may be infected, washing hands and taking physical distance, face masks are an invaluable tool to reduce community transmission,” said Rimoin. their effect on R0 have the potential to reduce infections. If governments exit lockdowns, it will be critical to keep transmissions low enough to maintain health care capacity until vaccines can be developed and become widespread provided. ”
To come to their conclusions, the team examined a wide variety of new and existing studies and investigations, including work dating back to a 1910 outbreak of plague in northeast China. Even then, according to the researchers, scientists fighting the plague recognized that the cloth mask was “ the primary means of personal protection. ”
There is also ample evidence of the current pandemic, said study co-author Jeremy Howard, a researcher at the University of San Francisco.
“By the end of June 2020, nearly 90% of the world’s population lived in regions where near universal mask use existed, or where laws in some public locations required the use of masks, and the use of community masks was recommended by nearly all major public health agencies,” Howard said. This is a radical change from the early days of the pandemic, when masks were rarely recommended or used. ”
The researchers came to several conclusions, including:
- Face masks were 79% effective in preventing transmission when used by all household members before symptoms occurred.
- The use of masks was highly protective, with a 70% risk reduction for those who always wore masks when going out.
- Transmission was 7.5 times higher in countries that did not have a mask mandate.
- The difference between U.S. states with mask mandates and states without daily growth being 2 percentage points lower in states with mask mandates estimates that by May 22 last year, the mandates had prevented 230.00 to 450,000 COVID-19 cases.
- Face masks have a large reduction effect on infections and fatalities, with a potential impact on US GDP of $ 1 trillion if a nationwide mask mandate were introduced.
- The marginal benefit per cloth mask worn is between $ 3,000 and $ 6,000.