Here’s how Tilray, Sundial, and other pot supplies stack up

While marijuana stocks have often been traded together under the influence of sentiment, many of these stocks have seen varying degrees of success. Some investors look for exchange-traded funds to bet on a wider basket of pot stocks. The

ETFMG alternative harvest ETF

(MJ), which has exposure to marijuana companies, fell 24% Thursday, back near levels from the start of the week. But that ETF doesn’t include US multi-state operators, or MSOs, which are freely available in the US because they sell a product where it is federally illegal. The

Advisors shares Pure Cannabis ETF

(YOLO) includes US MSOs.

Here are some of the biggest individual stocks and what analysts are forecasting. It is not an exhaustive list, as there are more than a hundred public stocks with some ties to the cannabis industry.

Tilray (TLRY) and Aphria (APHA)

Tilray

and Aphria announced a merger in December. Aphria CEO Irwin Simon expects the deal to close in the first half of this year. An investor would receive approximately 0.84 shares of the combined Tilray for every share of Aphria they owned. Aphria has a recent market cap of $ 8.3 billion, compared to Tilray at $ 10.1 billion.

Tilray entered the year with high short-term interest rates on about 48% of the shares available for trading, according to data from S3 Partners. That has been reduced to a recent 23%. Aphria’s short-term stake is approximately 7.4% of the shares available for trading, up from 16% at the start of the year. When investors short sell a stock, they sell a borrowed stock in the hope that they can give it back by buying the stock at a lower price. When a multitude of short sellers rush to cover and prevent further losses, it can drive up stocks.

For Aphria, analysts expect the company to close fiscal year 2021 in May with annual sales of $ 534.8 million. They expect revenue to grow to $ 710.3 million by fiscal 2022. On the other hand, Tilray closed its last fiscal year in December. Analysts expect the company to report annual sales of $ 208 million, which will grow to $ 277.8 million in the current year. Obviously, the merger will cloud far-reaching estimates.

The average analyst rating on Tilray is a Hold, according to FactSet, although the average price target is only $ 12.20. The average rating on Aphria is Overweight, but the average price target is $ 12.60.

Sundial growers (SNDL)

The sundial, which once traded above $ 11, has fallen to penny stock status. The core management team resigned in February last year. The company had issues including half a ton of cannabis rejected by a customer for poor quality, MarketWatch reported. Earlier this month, Sundial announced a capital increase that pushed shares down.

The stock bounced back this month amid interest from retailers, up 403% since the start of the year. Its market value is $ 4.3 billion after Thursday’s downturn. Analysts expect full-year 2020 revenue to reach $ 53.1 million. Consensus estimates call for $ 62.6 million by 2021.

Aurora Cannabis (ACB)

Aurora Cannabis

was previously one of the most owned stocks on Robinhood. But the company has struggled for several quarters to achieve a positively adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization. A new CEO and some major cost cuts have helped, but analysts haven’t won. None of the 17 analysts listed by FactSet has a Buy rating, while four analysts recently rated it as a sale. The average target price of $ 9.07 is below the recent levels.

The company has a market capitalization of $ 3.7 billion. Analysts are not predicting a profitable financial year in the coming years. The consensus estimate calls for a net loss of $ 1.16 per share for the fiscal year ending in June, according to FactSet. In terms of revenue, analysts predict the company will hit $ 227.4 million in fiscal year 2021, which ends in June. They forecast sales will soar to $ 303.3 million by fiscal year 2022.

Canopy Growth (CGC)

Canopy growth

has a recent market cap of $ 19.7 billion. Brouwer

Constellation brands

(STZ) has a majority stake in Canopy. The grower also has a deal with Acreage Holdings that will allow him to enter the US cannabis market, but the merger itself is triggered by regulatory changes that would allow him to do so.

The company has a market value of approximately $ 19.7 billion. Analysts expect revenue of $ 441.4 million for the 2021 fiscal year, which ends in March. They predict it will grow to $ 639.9 million by fiscal year 2022.

Cronos Group (CRON)

Cronos Group

was one of the few profitable Canadian cannabis companies in 2019, and investors expect this to continue in 2020, with estimates requiring a profit of 3 cents a share. But consensus estimates expect a net loss of 24 cents per share by fiscal 2021.

The company received $ 1.8 billion from the tobacco giant

Altria Group

(MO) in 2018 for a 45% interest. Unlike competitors, the company has been conservative with its war chest. At the end of September, it still had $ 1.3 billion in cash and short-term investments. On the other hand, analysts predict sales will be as low as $ 43.8 million in 2020, and expect it to grow to $ 86.9 million by 2021.

US multi-state operators

While the recent rush for pot stocks was sparked by a shift in the political wind in the US, growers selling marijuana there have actually lagged behind their Canadian peers in recent months. Cantor Fitzgerald analyst Pablo Zuanic said Barron’s he believes that “the best US MSOs are attractively valued if they have a long-term vision, even though they get some of the Canadian downdraft.”

Big American names include

Curaleaf Holdings

(CURLF),

Green Thumb Industries

(GTBIF),

Cresco Labs

(CRLBF), and

Trulieve Cannabis

(TCNNF). Zuanic has an overweight rating for those stocks, while he has a neutral rating for most of the major Canadian names. He expects U.S. cannabis market revenues of $ 22.1 billion in 2021, $ 28 billion in 2022, and $ 49 billion by 2025.

Write to Connor Smith at [email protected]